Carlos Zambrano has tendinitis and inflammation in his pitching shoulder. AP Jon Heyman's Mailbag Got a question or comment for Jon? Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND Follow Jon Heyman on Twitter

The National League favorite Cubs are currently missing the top 40 percent of their rotation. And while this team with a storied past and a stacked present retains hope for an intact rotation come playoff time, if they are still without their dynamic duo of Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden in October, 90 percent of the Cubs' chance to break their 99-year losing streak could be lost in the wind.

Though the most recent news on Zambrano -- suggesting he only has tendinitis and inflammation in his right shoulder -- appears as positive a they could have hoped for, there's still a considerable amount of Cubbie concern.

Friends of Zambrano tell SI.com that perhaps the ultimate tough guy should not have tried toughing it out on Tuesday, when he pitched five innings but saw his velocity dip from 96 mph to 89 mph over those innings. After an MRI taken Thursday, the Cubs are calling it rotator cuff tendinitis, and those close to Zambrano are calling that a major "relief.'' He took a cortisone shot and he'll skip Sunday's start vs. Cincinnati. Cubs people are predicting he'll be back for the following start, but there are no guarantees.

Few pitchers have proven more durable in recent years than Zambrano, a rare and consistent 200-inning man. So any injury to him now could spark incessant talk about jinxes for the team that's known for the billy goat, a black cat and Bartman, talk that can't be healthy for the beloved but snake-bitten organization.

At least any injury for Harden shouldn't stir that kind of defeatist talk. Harden brought his own long history of misfortune with him from Oakland. Harden's recent rest was originally portrayed as precautionary, but his case seems to have worsened to worrisome. Cubs manager Lou Piniella uttered the most ominous words to the team's beat writers, saying Harden "has had some discomfort also.''

The ultra-talented Harden's past ranks with that of the Cubs in terms of bad luck, so any injury to him can't be considered a stunner. Even so, it could be a killer for the Cubs.

Here are two more tough injury situations that came to light in the heat of the pennant race ...

• Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay third baseman and left fielder. The incredible Rays have joined the injury party. Longoria's return has been delayed perhaps a week beyond the original Sept. 1 target date, while Crawford is still hoping for a late September return. The Rays playoff ticket already appears punched, but the injuries to their two best position players adds an extra dimension of doubt to a team with talent and pluck but lacking in any real experience or pedigree.

The Rays already have produced a miracle by badly outplaying the Yankees, a team that has spent five times as much on players but has suffered from injuries and abject underperformance. And while the Rays' lineup won't look the same if Longoria and Crawford can't make it back to their previous form, the Rays are 15-7 without those two players, as they continue to defy critics and beat odds.

• Billy Wagner, New York Mets closer. Wagner is surely the best pitcher in what's been a surprisingly sketchy Mets bullpen. Wagner will throw one more side session before a decision will be made whether he has a chance to rescue a bullpen that's produced a lot of scary moments and a great deal of agita in his absence.

The situation isn't great but it may not be quite as hopeless as it seems. There still may be enough talent and options to make it work, with or without Wagner. But if Wagner can't make it back (and even if he can, really), manager Jerry Manuel will be under considerable pressure to continue to win his mix-and-match game of relief roulette. Two September callups, experienced closer Al Reyes and 98-mph-throwing youngster Bobby Parnell, give Manuel two more possible options. And Omar Minaya's personal pickup of Luis Ayala has been something of a life saver, temporarily taking Wagner's spot and managing to look nothing like the pitcher who came to New York from the Nationals with a 1-8 record and 6 ERA.

Inside the Alvarez drama

Vanderbilt hitting star Pedro Alvarez's decision to reverse his original and brief after-the-deadline acceptance of the $6 million Pirates deal is a big gamble. But it's a gamble he may well win.

Alvarez, the No. 2 overall pick by the Pirates, grew up in the same poor Washington Heights, N.Y., neighborhood that produced Manny Ramirez, and his father is a livery driver in New York City. The deal the Pirates offered presumably would change his life.

Alvarez is obviously taking a risk by allowing the union to challenge the agreement. But while he is being unfairly painted as "punk'' by some in Pittsburgh, it would appear that he has a pretty good chance to win the arbitration case that will be heard on Sept. 10 by Shyam Das.

The specifics of the midnight negotiation will be sorted out at the hearing. But the union's argument (and the claim of Alvarez and his adviser/agent Scott Boras) that the deal shouldn't count could be a winning one. Alvarez did say "I accept'' to the Pirates, but those words appear to be uttered a couple minutes after the midnight deadline, and except for that one post-deadline moment, Alvarez has otherwise said "no'' to the Pirates. And that goes for all the time before the deadline, and apparently all the time since he said "I accept,'' as well. Alvarez also hasn't signed anything.

Pirates president Frank Coonelly expressed confidence they will win the case, and that the Alvarez agreement will stick. But part of that confidence is based on an extension that was granted only to Coonelly by the MLB office.

MLB is siding with Coonelly, saying among other things that 1) any agreement, even a verbal one, has historically been binding, 2) they have power over any minor-league deal, and Alvarez's deal was for a minor-league contract, and 3) other deals, such as last year's deal for Texas' Julio Borbon and this year's $6-million deal for Royals draft choice Eric Hosmer, were also agreed to after the deadline and accepted as deals by MLB, which has pulled Hosmer off the field.

(There appears to be some disagreement over which deal came first, Hosmer or Alvarez, but since Hosmer signed immediately and both sides are happy with that deal, it would seem to be illogical for the arbitrator to void that deal. One change that could come out of this is an abolition of extensions.)

Here's why I think Alvarez may surprise the Pirates and actually win the case: Since the phone call that produced Alvarez's acceptance is believed to have been made at 12:02, the extension was apparently granted only to the Pirates (as far as Alvarez knew, time was up at midnight) and Alvarez, except for that brief moment, has otherwise shown no indication of wanting to take the deal.

Alvarez is a young man who panicked and was and still may be uncertain of the right choice. But he was put in a tough spot by the Pirates, who are believed not to have upped their offer of an under-market $5 million to $6 million until 11:56, giving Alvarez only four minutes to make the call of a lifetime. There is nothing wrong with the Pirates waiting until 11:56 to up their offer, and this is a typical bargaining tactic, but they should still understand that the timing of their real offer could affect their chances for a deal.

MLB suspects that Alvarez decided he didn't like his deal after learning that the Giants gave slightly more, $6.2 million, to Florida State catcher Buster Posey, the No. 5 pick, and if that's really what caused this, that's not a great reason for Alvarez to change his mind and go back on his acceptance. However, in the absence of a signed deal in a case where the verbal agreement came after an extension was granted only to the team, the Pirates could be in a tougher case than they think.

While Alvarez could well win the case, there's considerable question whether his situation will actually improve by winning. Coonelly says there's "zero'' chance he'd up his offer, and assuming he doesn't bend on that claim, Alvarez would have to wait until next year's draft to sign. And while he's considered a big-time prospect, there's no guarantee he'd be picked higher than No. 2 overall, especially with 100-mph-throwing San Diego State right-hander Stephen Strasburg, another Boras client, expected to be in next year's draft.