Some Federer concern, but not enough to gamble

Roger Federer won last year's Australian Open without dropping a set. David Callow/SI

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SI.com's Jon Wertheim breaks down the men's and women's seeds at the Australian Open. Read on for the top first-round matchups, dark horses to keep an eye on and his predicted winners.

Top 16 seeds

1. Roger Federer: Withdrawal from the pre-tournament exhibition might be small cause for concern but not enough to bet against a third straight title. Could encounter a few hurdles along the way -- quick, Mirka, where's Nalbandian in the draw? -- but how do you pick against him? Looking forward to second rounder against Fabrice Santoro.

2. Rafael Nadal: More nada than "Nadal" over the past six months. Injuries and surfaces other than clay have beset No. 2. Benefits from slow surfaces, but if he reaches the quarters, it will mark an achievement.

3. Novak Djokovic: On the short list of players who could upend the Fed. Now that he's a bona fide star, it will be interesting to see how he reacts. Can't complain about his draw either.

4. Nikolay Davydenko: Until his (euphemism alert) "off-court issues" get resolved, it's hard to imagine that Davydenko is in the necessary state of mind to challenge for majors. Adding to woes: he starts against Mike Llodra, a tricky lefty who has already won a title this year.

5. David Ferrer: Took a bad loss in the New Zealand tuneup, but hefty Spaniard is in great condition, the surface agrees with him, and he's not going to lose too many battles of wills. Put that together and it augurs favorably.

6. Andy Roddick: The faster the surface plays, the better for him. Regardless, Roddick tends to do well in Australia -- he has a 23-6 career record in Melbourne -- and arrives in-form. A run to the finals is hardly out of the question. (And one looks forward to a possible showdown with Donald Young in round two.)

7. Fernando González: Your guess is as good as anyone's. Easy to see him playing you-gotta-be-kidding-me tennis and returning to the final. Equally easy to see him falling right out of the gate.

8. Richard Gasquet: Seemed to have taken a big step when he recovered from a two-set deficit to beat Roddick in Wimbledon quarters. But where's he been since? A threat on talent alone but it would be nice if he came in with more momentum.

9. Andy Murray: Though his knowledge of the Golden State Warriors and classic rock isn't what it was a year ago, top Brit is back in the top 10 and has already bagged a title in 2008. Big chance here, even with a tough first rounder against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

10. David Nalbandian: After dropping off the grid a bit last year, Argentine returned with back-to-back Masters Series titles than included wins over Federer, Nadal and the Djoker. What's more, he's reached the quarters or better four times in Melbourne.

11. Tommy Robredo: Spaniard reached the quarters last year but tends to underachieve in Slams.

12. James Blake: Disappointing as his '07 was,he did win 43 hardcourt matches -- tied for second with Djokovic -- last year. Take a look at his draw and, provided he keeps his nerves, the quarters certainly seems attainable.

13. Tom Berdych: He's no Gonzo, but "The Berd" is a maddeningly erratic player.

14. Mikhail Youzhny: Deceptively powerful Russian comes in playing well. Plus his draw is plenty soft. Star this horse in your racing form.

15. Marcos Baghdatis: Was his run to the final really two years ago already? One of those players whose training (or lack thereof) in the offseason could go a long way toward determining his success. Tough first-rounder.

16. Carlos Moyà: Former No. 1 -- 11 years after reaching the final! -- still out there, whacking forehands and picking off some wins from time to time.

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