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Posted: Wednesday June 18, 2008 1:09PM; Updated: Thursday June 19, 2008 11:32AM
Jon Wertheim Jon Wertheim >
TENNIS MAILBAG

Is Nadal the favorite?

Story Highlights
  • It'll be a colossal upset if neither Roger Federer nor Rafael Nadal wins Wimbledon
  • I've never seen a male player run through a draw, the way Nadal did in Paris
  • A friend of mine recently remarked that, "Tennis is for the kids who took Latin."
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With clay behind him, Rafael Nadal is gaining favor as the expected winner of Wimbledon.
With clay behind him, Rafael Nadal is gaining favor as the expected winner of Wimbledon.
Reuters

Hi everyone, check back in a few days for a Wimbledon seed report.

OK, Jon, be bold and say it: Having won at Queens, Nadal is the favorite at Wimbledon.

-- Martin Burkey, Huntsville, AL

• Just. Can't. Do. It. A lot of you made similar pronouncements and I think it's a legitimate argument. Apart from winning a title on grass -- beating Dr. Ivo, Roddick and Djokovic in the process -- Nadal is obviously playing at a vertiginously high level these days. And, of course, he didn't merely beat Federer; he humiliated him in Paris. But how about a little respect for a five-time champ? Especially when he wins a tune-up without dropping serve once? We all know about Roger Federer's travails this year. But I say until he's beaten, he remains the Wimbledon favorite, albeit a slim one.

In the interest of Proposition Joe-style consensus building, can we all agree on this: it will be a colossal upset if neither RF nor RN wins.

I recently saw archived footage of Gabriela Sabatini playing Steffi Graf in the 1990 US Open Final, her only Grand Slam win. In measuring differences within the women's game over the last twenty years, how much success (if any) do you think the Sabatini of 1990/1991 would have on today's tour?

-- Stephen Males, Devonshire, Bermuda

• I always feel like it's heresy to hold this opinion, but I don't think Sabatini would be a factor at all. Watch the tapes of women's tennis from, say, the late 80s or early 90s, and it's almost comically different from the game being played today. It's like the old football clips with the players wearing leather helmets. As I think I mentioned a few weeks ago, Tracy Austin supposedly weighed 85 pounds when she won her first U.S. Open. Could you imagine that today? Jelena Jankovic always complains about how small she is and she's listed -- and we know how under-reported those figures are -- at 130 pounds. Likewise, Sabatini threw in serves that traveled at 39 miles an hour. Can you imagine what Ana Ivanovic would have done with those? Whapppp. I think Graf holds her own in any era. Sabatini? Not so much.

I reviewed the draws at the Nottingham tournament and was surprised to see Janko Tipsarevic and three other players with higher rankings in the qualifying rounds while Bobby Reynolds, ranked nearly 60 places lower, was accepted directly into the main draw. Is this a function of late applications to play landing higher ranked players in the qualifying rounds? How does that work?

-- Robert Webb, Dalton, Georgia

• Usually it owes to one of two factors. A) Player X did not enter in time and thus is forced to qualify, though his ranking would merit an "automatic in." B) The draw cut-off is usually held weeks before the actual event. For instance: fresh off her French Open quarterfinal appearance, Carla Suarez Navarro is now a top 50 player. Yet her "cut-off" ranking may well have necessitated that she qualify this week.

This is probably a no-brainer for you, but which feat would you rank higher, Federer earning his fifth Gerry Weber title or Rafa earning his first grasscourt title and ending Spain's 36 years grasscourt title drought.

-- Christian Rola, Luxembourg

• In terms of news value? Nadal all the way, especially given the players he had to beat to win that grass title. Back to Nadal, a few of you caught this as well: how could he be the first Spaniard to win on grass since the reign of King Ferdinand when Conchita Martinez won Wimbledon last decade?

Thanks for providing the transcript for the Virginia Ruano Pascual/Anabel Medina Garrigues news conference -- a gem as promised. Any chance of doing the same for Rafa's presser? I've given up all hope of them posting the text on rolandgarros.com and haven't found it anywhere else. Thank you!

-- Julia, New York

• I don't seem to have it. Note to the French Federation: get it together! It's a week after the tournament. No reason to embargo the transcripts!

Jon, People talk a lot about the weapons of the top players, but I've never heard anyone mention what in my opinion is the biggest weapon in the game today: Nadal's will.

-- Miles Benson, Hudson, Mass.

• I don't disagree with that. Similarly, I would say that "will" is also the biggest asset in Sharapova's game, the most feared weapon of Henin and the true weapon of the Williams sisters.

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