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Posted: Friday June 20, 2008 10:21AM; Updated: Monday June 23, 2008 2:52AM
Jon Wertheim Jon Wertheim >
INSIDE TENNIS

Wimbledon men's seed report

Story Highlights
  • Rafael Nadal is the hot pick even though Roger Federer is the reigning champ
  • Novak Djokovic might get his chance to back up his Federer smack in the semis
  • Andy Roddick's past success on grass and favorable draw mean opportunity here
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The top two seeds, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, are expected to meet in the Wimbledon final for a third-straight year.
The top two seeds, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, are expected to meet in the Wimbledon final for a third-straight year.
Reuters

SI.com's Jon Wertheim breaks down the men's and women's seeds at Wimbledon. Read on for the top first-round matchups, dark horses to keep an eye on and his predicted winners.

1. Roger Federer: More as a show of respect than as a barometer of current weather conditions, we have to tip five-time champ. What with his mortal year, his humiliation and a brutal early draw (Hrbaty, Guccione, Nishikori, Soderling and Monfils in his sixteenth of the draw! -- Federer has a chance to make a forceful statement, one way or the other.

2. Rafael Nadal: Obviously the hot pick. He conquered Paris again and he won a tune-up. Does he have seven grass matches in him? It would surprise no one if Nadal pulled the "Borg double." But I still think Federer has to be the favorite. Just as Soderling is a dangerous second-round opponent for Federer, how about the Gulbis-Isner winner for Nadal?

3. Novak Djokovic: A semifinalist last year, Djokoster can clearly play on grass. He called out Federer and might get his chance to back up the smack in the semis, especially since he was favored by the Draw Fates.

4. Nikolay Davydenko: Considering that he was playing a claycourt event last week, think it's safe to say his expectations are modest. Ours should be, too.

5. David Ferrer: Still trying to figure out how he managed to get seeded ahead of Roddick. Ferrer was a second-round loser last year and, despite some tune-up success, his classic grinding style is hardly made for grass.

6. Andy Roddick: Top American has dropped out of the conversation a bit since Miami. The lingering effects of his shoulder injury are a cause for concern as was last week's loss to Nadal. But given Roddick's past success on grass, his fine play in 2008 and a favorable draw, there's a big opportunity here.

7. David Nalbandian: Has it really been six years since his unlikely run to the final? One of the more mystifying players on tour, he mustered just ONE game against Djokovic last week at Queen's Club. That does not bode well.

8. Richard Gasquet: Nursing a severe stress fracture of confidence, the Frenchman has done virtually nothing since reaching semis last year. It says here he loses to Mardy Fish in Round 1.

9. James Blake: The grass ought to play to his strengths -- speed and a weapons-grade forehand -- but he's never advanced beyond third round. He's likely to meet Roddick in the round of 16.

10. Marcos Baghdatis: Not one of the steadier players around, the Bag-Man has done little of note in 2008. That said, he had a strong Wimbledon last year and seems to be finding his form a bit.

11. Tomas Berdych: The European Fernando Gonzalez. He's another mystifying player who has all the tools but has yet to show he has the temperament. Certainly can't complain about his draw. In a vacuum, he has a real chance at the quarters if he finally gets it together.

12. Andy Murray: Right now, Murray is a work in regress, nursing a thumb injury and diminishing confidence. But here's a chance to run around his year: playing with immense fanfare, he has a real shot of meeting Nadal in the quarters.

13. Stanislas Wawrinka: The "other Swiss" deserves credit for steadily ascending the mountain. But his career record at WB is 2-3. On the plus side: probably the best draw of any top 16 seed.

14. Paul Henri Mathieu: Under Mats Wilander's tutelage, PHM is projecting confidence. Here's another player with a losing career record at WB, but he ought to at least live up to seeding.

15. Fernando Gonzalez: Your guess is as good as his. Robby Ginepri is his first-round foe.

16. Radek Stepanek: Pulled out of the tune-up with an injury, but he's a fine attacking player who usually plays well at majors. Too good to be a "dangerous floater," but nevertheless he's an opponent no one wants.

Seeds 17-32

17. Mikhail Youzhny: One of the many erratic performers in the men's game. A deceptively hard server with a game that can translate to grass, he ought to be a contender.

18. Ivo Karlovic: As always, Dr. Ivo is one player no one wants to face on grass.

20. Lleyton Hewitt: Best days are behind him, but 2002 champ is always dangerous.

30. Gael Monfils: After the breakout French Open performance, can Monfils keep the mojo going on grass?

32. Michael Llodra: Lefty + exceptional net play = big potential. Big first match against Ancic.

Dark Horses

Mario Ancic: He could easily be one of the world's top five grass-court players. But can he get passed Llodra?

Robin Soderling: Swede with attitude should have beaten Nadal last year. He gets a shot at Federer in Round 2.

Philipp Kohlschreiber: Like Soderling, a better player than his ranking indicates.

Kei Nishikori: Who took a set off Nadal at Queen's Club last week? It wasn't Roddick, Djokovic or Karlovic. It was this Japanese teenager.

First round matches to watch

Monfils vs. Chris Guccione: French star draws hard-serving Aussie lefty.

Ancic vs. Llodra: Two of the better attackers meet early.

Juan Carlos Ferrero v. Sam Querrey: Hard-serving American has a real chance to take out a former No.1.

Murray vs. Fabrice Santoro: Santoro seldom beats the favorites but he entertains on the big stage.

Blue plate upset special

Mardy Fish to beat Gasquet

Doubles winners

Daniel Nestor and Nenad Zimonjic

Semis

Federer vs. Djokovic

Roddick vs. Nadal

Final

Federer vs. Nadal IIl

Champion

Federer

 
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