Are $100 million deals worth it?

Kevin Brown was the first player to sign a nine-figure contract, and the first example of why they're not a very good idea. AP

It may be in just a few days, it may take weeks. But the inevitable truth is CC Sabathia is going to become the 17th player in the history of Major League Baseball to sign a multi-year contract in excess of $100 million. And depending on how the dominoes fall, Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez (for a second time) could be close behind him.

Should all three sign nine-figure contracts, that will bring the total number of such deals to 20 (Alex Rodriguez has signed two of them). And if it doesn't happen this offseason, it'll surely happen in 2009 with a free-agent class that includes Josh Beckett and Matt Holliday.

Such megadeals are a direct result to the ever-exploding baseball economy, which has grown far faster than the American economy over the past 15 years (and likely will weather this current economic slowdown). Still, they're reserved for only the most special players.

Are they worth it? Sometimes yes. If you look at the numbers, it's hard to argue against teams like the Yankees and Cardinals for reserving their war chests for franchise players such as Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols. But since Kevin Brown became the first player to break the nine-figure threshold eight years ago, the results have been mixed, sometimes often downright terrible. And as SI.com's John Donovan wrote, awarding such contracts to pitchers is a particularly risky proposition.

So let's take a look at the 17 megacontracts awarded to 16 players since 1999 and explore whether paying one player such enormous figures is worth it. Below you'll find all 16 players' average seasonal statistics for their careers before they signed their deals, and their average numbers after. Then we'll break down why they did or didn't work out and assign a grade to each contract. (We'll take a pass on the two who signed last offseason, as one year isn't enough to go by.)

Kevin Brown

The first nine-figure contract was emblematic of the first wave of free-spending in baseball. Dodgers GM Kevin Malone handed out a bevy of bad contracts that offseason, including huge multiyear deals to Darren Dreifort, Shawn Green and Gary Sheffield. Brown was already 34 and a 10-year veteran when he signed with the Dodgers, so the odds weren't good that he'd be able to keep producing at the same level that he had when he helped both the Marlins and Padres reach the World Series in the two most recent years before he cashed in with L.A.

But interestingly, the fireballer validated his price tag during his first two seasons as the Dodgers ace. He reached near-career bests in innings pitched and strikeouts and posted a 31-15 record with a total ERA of less than 3.00. But injury problems began setting in toward the end of the 2000 season, and Brown would make more than 22 appearances only once more during his career -- his rebound '03 season, which is now clouded by his being included in the Mitchell Report.

Kevin Brown Signed: 1999; Terms: 7 years, $105 million Status Seasons IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA Before 10 215 206 90 79 12 62 146 14 10 3.36 After 7 154 139 62 55 12 40 131 10 6 3.72

Overall grade: C-

Ken Griffey Jr.

First off, let's just take a step back and marvel at the fact that Junior just completed his 20th season in the majors. You almost forget how long the kid has been playing the game, regardless of his history of injury problems. Griffey was at the height of his powers when he was traded to, and then signed with, his hometown Reds -- he bashed 209 home runs and drove in 567 over his final four years in Seattle and was generally regarded as the best player in the game. But he was also 30 years old -- statistically past the sell-by date for the majority of sluggers. Though he started well in 2000, hitting 40 home runs and driving in 118 runs, in 2001 he began suffering a multitude of injuries that forced him to miss significant amounts of playing time in six-consecutive seasons, depressing his statistics and his value.

Ken Griffey Jr. Signed: 2000; Terms: 9 years, $116.5 million Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 11 530 97 158 36 105 .297 .379 .563 .942 After 9 387 61 104 24 69 .267 .360 .508 .869

Overall grade: D+

Alex Rodriguez

A-Rod's first megadeal is easier to criticize, as his average $25 million salary hamstrung Texas' ability to build around its superstar. The Rangers finished dead last in each of the three seasons Rodriguez manned shortstop in Arlington and couldn't surround him with complementary talent. That's why they dealt him to the Yankees in '03 and picked up most of the tab.

But it's harder to argue with his production since then. If anyone is worth a quarter-billion, it's A-Rod -- his numbers have increased across the board and he's a perennial MVP candidate. But ostensibly, the Yanks are paying him to help them win their first title since 2000, and Rodriguez has fallen flat when it has mattered most: the playoffs. He batted .160 and hit only one homer over three-straight postseasons from '05 to '07 as the Yankees bowed out in the Division Series each year.

Alex Rodriguez (First megadeal) Signed: 2000; Terms: 10 years, $252 million; (Second megadeal) Signed: 2008; Terms: 10 years, $275 million Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Pre-contracts 5 512 104 159 32 99 .300 .361 .548 .909 First megadeal 7* 599 124 181 47 130 .304 .400 .591 .990 Second megadeal 1 510 104 154 35 103 .302 .392 .573 .965 * = Opted out of contract with three years remaining

Overall grade (first contract): C

Overall grade (second contract): Incomplete

Derek Jeter

Out of the Yankees' three megadeals, locking up their captain may be the only decision that has panned out. Jeter's numbers have stayed fairly consistent in the eight years since he re-signed. This past season, though, at age 34, he may have shown the first signs of decline, with his lowest totals in four years: a .300 average, 11 homers, 69 RBIs and a career-low .771 OPS. Those are still respectable numbers for any player, to say nothing for a nine-time All-Star. But the Yanks will have an interesting financial decision to make when his contract expires after 2010.

Derek Jeter Signed: 2001; Terms: 10 years, $189 million Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 5 616 120 199 16 81 .323 .396 .470 .865 After 8 612 107 191 15 73 .312 .382 .448 .830

Overall grade: B

Manny Ramirez

No player on this list has seen such a marked increase in their numbers after signing their big deal. Incredibly, Ramirez has gotten better with age and is actually a more disciplined hitter than he was eight years ago. But does that warrant another giant deal? Now 36, it's hard to imagine him hitting at his current pace four years from now, which is the minimum contract length his agent, Scott Boras, is looking for this winter. Then again, if anyone defies conventional logic, it's Manny.

Manny Ramirez Signed: 2001; Terms: $160 million Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 7 434 83 136 30 101 .295 .381 .558 .939 After 8 518 97 163 36 115 .316 .416 .595 1.011

Overall grade: A-

Mike Hampton

Say this for Hampton: Good for him for demanding the money in exchange for sacrificing his numbers. The thin air of Coors Field was unkind to the lefty as he allowed career highs in hits, earned runs and homers during his two seasons with the Rockies. But Hampton began to suffer control problems soon after arriving in Colorado and the team eventually cut bait after the '02 season. What these post-contract numbers (already markedly lower) don't show are the two seasons in which Hampton didn't make one start as he struggled with elbow and hamstring problems. And Tommy John surgery is the quickest way to render a nine-figure deal a waste of money.

Mike Hampton Signed: 2001; Terms: 8 years, $121 million Status Seasons IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA Before 6 177 172 78 66 12 67 121 12 7 3.41 After 8 148 168 87 79 17 61 76 9 9 4.67

Overall grade: F

Jason Giambi

By most accounts, the Yanks' biggest disaster when it comes to giant deals. Giambi replicated his power numbers during his first two seasons in pinstripes but saw a steady decline in every season thereafter. He never again broke .300 and missed significant parts of two seasons. And there's no way to quantify the PR hit the Yanks took from Giambi's admission he had used steroids to pad his stats.

Jason Giambi Signed: 2002; Terms: 7 years, $120 million Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 7 485 86 150 27 96 .304 .406 .532 .938 After 7 419 74 109 30 86 .254 .396 .505 .901

Overall grade: D+

Todd Helton

Helton doesn't hit for power the way he used to, but he's more disciplined at the plate at 35 than he was at 25. Still, much like A-Rod in Texas, the bulk of the Rockies payroll has been tied up by their first baseman over the life of his contract. (Perhaps fittingly, Colorado replaced Hampton's huge salary with Helton's.) The Rockies have made just one postseason trip during the length of Helton's stay in Colorado.

Todd Helton Signed: 2003; Terms: 9 years, $141.5 million* Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 6 487 97 162 31 104 .325 .406 .596 1.000 After 6 507 94 164 21 82 .319 .434 .524 .957 * = Helton signed the contract before the 2001 season but it didn't take effect until the 2003 season.

Overall grade: C

Albert Pujols

Another of the rare unmitigated winners on this list as Pujols has maintained his status as one of the game's elite players. It's hard to argue with these numbers, as well as seven All-Star appearances, two National League MVPs and one World Series title. Pujols is also the overall leader in batting average and slugging average among active players. The deal makes even more sense for the Cardinals, who locked up Pujols with this extension and avoided the open market, which surely would have driven up his price. He'll likely get an even bigger payout once his current deal expires after the 2010 season, when Pujols will still be only 30.

Albert Pujols Signed: 2004; Terms: 7 years, $100 million Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 3 590 122 197 38 127 .334 .412 .613 1.025 After 5 561 116 188 41 119 .335 .433 .632 1.065

Overall grade: A

Carlos Beltran

Again, hard to argue with the numbers. Beltran has rebounded very well from his first season with the Mets (still the worst of his career), and remains the five-tool player for whom the Amazins shelled out to win a bidding war with the Yankees. But a question worth asking: With the Mets suffering two-straight late-season collapses, would GM Omar Minaya have been better off using Beltran's $17 million average salary to bolster the bullpen?

Carlos Beltran Signed: 2005; Terms: 7 years, $119 million Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 6 568 101 162 24 94 .327 .413 .575 .988 After 4 563 105 155 29 105 .275 .362 .508 .870

Overall grade: B-

Vernon Wells

On the surface, not a bad deal for the Jays. Wells was 27 when he signed his extension, and was already a two-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove Award winner. But, although he's an established hitter, Wells has never really been disciplined at the plate. Throughout his career, he has struck out roughly twice as often as he has walked. You have to wonder how he'll make up for that as his bat speed begins to decrease. His numbers have decreased across the board two years into his new deal, and injury troubles are starting to pop up.

Vernon Wells Signed: 2006; Terms: 7 years, $126 million* Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 6 525 78 152 23 82 .292 .338 .485 .823 After 2 506 74 136 18 79 .273 .324 .449 .773 * = Wells signed the contract before the 2007 season but it didn't take effect until the 2008 season.

Overall grade: C

Alfonso Soriano

Soriano is truly a Cub. Despite the fact that his offensive output has remained more or less consistent over his career, he, like the rest of his teammates, disappears during the postseason. He is 3-for-27 over the past two years in the NLDS as the Cubs were swept twice. He's also still error-prone in the field and still has had a tendency to fall into deep slumps.

Alfonso Soriano Signed: 2007; Terms: 8 years, $136 million Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 6 641 103 180 34 93 .282 .352 .484 .841 After 2 516 87 150 31 73 .290 .341 .546 .887

Overall grade: B-

Barry Zito

Zito is the very example of why it's so risky to offer any player a nine-figure deal, and even more so of why it makes little sense to give that money to a pitcher. Even before his move across the San Francisco Bay from the A's to the Giants, his velocity had declined, he had trouble locating, his mechanics worsened and his first-pitch strike ability steadily decreased. To his credit, Zito rebounded from his horrendous start to '08, but signing him in the first place was an example of a downtrodden team badly needing a big name to repair its battered image. Zito has overtaken Hampton as the benchmark bad contract for a pitcher, and is now probably directly affecting the Giants' financial ability to lure Bay Area native Sabathia -- or any other marquee free agent, for that matter.

Barry Zito Signed: 2007; Terms: 7 years, $126 million Status Seasons IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA Before 7 204 175 89 81 21 80 157 15 9 3.49 After 2 188 184 110 101 20 93 126 11 15 4.84

Overall grade: F

Carlos Lee

This is taking nothing away from the fact that El Caballo is in the prime of his career and has driven in more than 100 runs in five of the past six seasons. But that fact that the Astros backloaded his deal could come back to bite them: Lee is owed $74 million over the next four years, and Houston is on the hook for another $87 million with the guaranteed years remaining on the sizeable contracts of Miguel Tejada, Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt. There won't be much payroll flexibility in the next few years for GM Ed Wade unless he starts dealing.

Carlos Lee Signed: 2007; Terms: 6 years, $100 million Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 8 508 90 164 28 98 .286 .339 .494 .833 After 2 532 77 164 30 110 .309 .361 .549 .910

Overall grade: C.

Miguel Cabrera

From a pure baseball standpoint, the Tigers would appear to have made a sound decision in locking up Cabrera. The Venezuelan slugger was a month shy of his 25th birthday when he signed his extension last March, making him second-youngest player (after Pujols) to sign a contract in excess of $100 million. He'll be 33 when the deal expires and, ostensibly, Detroit will benefit from the peak years of his career.

Miguel Cabrera Signed: 2008; Terms: 8 years, $152.3 million Status Seasons AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Before 5 539 90 168 28 105 .309 .381 .535 .916 After 1 616 85 180 37 127 .292 .349 .537 .886

Overall Grade: Incomplete

Johan Santana

Santana is a different story from Cabrera, the other most recent member of the $100 million club. Santana put together great numbers during his first season with the Mets that are in line with his career averages. But it'll take a lot more than that to make him the first nine-figure pitcher not to become a bust. He also pitched a career-high in innings in '08 and will be 30 when next season begins. The odds aren't good that he'll be able to keep producing at the same level, especially within the New York pressure cooker.

Johan Santana Signed: 2008; Terms: 6 years, $137.5 million Status Seasons IP H R ER HR BB SO W L ERA Before 8 196 153 69 64 21 49 215 15 7 2.94 After 1 234 206 74 66 23 63 206 16 7 2.54

Overall grade: Incomplete.