Evan's future, an upated top 10 list, Arlovski's gameplan, and more

Rashad Evans (top) has twice shown his strength on the ground. Courtesy of Zuffa Josh Gross's Mailbag Submit a comment or question for Josh. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

My final column of 2008 comes with the help of SI.com's MMA readers. We've got reaction to UFC 92, a look ahead for Rashad Evans, my latest pound-for-pound top 10 and Andrei Arlovski's plan to defeat Fedor Emelianenko.

Did we really just finish another year?

So do you think Rashad is the real deal? Or did he happen to face a very aged Chuck Liddell and an overrated (all heart) Forrest Griffin? One thing for sure the guy is quick. How would you see him face up against Rampage?
-- James Echeverria

Evans is the real deal, but he's competing in a deep division. He'll likely have to fend off Quinton "Rampage" Jackson first, although the winner between Lyoto Machida and Thiago Silva makes for a fine, undefeated contender.

Evans-Jackson brings together two guys with knockout power (the champ with his hands and feet) and little interest in the submission game. So, as far as styles go, it should be right on. I'd favor Jackson in the clinch -- just slightly -- and take Evans in wrestling, which is the biggest difference between Evans and Jackson. Evans can take advantage when Jackson's on the bottom. Beyond finishing guys on the feet, Evans has twice demonstrated damaging ground-and-pound. It's rare to see fighters finished on their backs. Jackson is capable as well, but with Evans being the better wrestler, I don't expect Rampage spending much time striking from the guard.

My guess: Evans will win in a slugfest. He can avoid Jackson's power, deliver his own and always have the option of making it a ground fight.

You said "Evans moves as well as anyone at light heavyweight -- equaled perhaps by Lyoto Machida." Really? When it comes to movement, Evans is nowhere close to Machida's level. The way he wobbles his head around is pathetic. I can only assume by movement you mean the way he dances and showboats. Machida is 10 times the fighter Evans is, and will prove it in the cage.
-- Nate, Burns, Tenn.

Machida moves very well. His footwork is more karate than boxing, and that's where he differs from Evans. Machida excels at dancing around attacks. That's why he's so hard to hit and so good defensively. Evans will turn a corner to create an angle or use quick feet to move away from power. When these two meet, let's hope the crowd appreciates the skill they bring, because it probably won't be Don Frye-Yoshihiro Takayama.

What about the Cheick Kongo fight against Mustapha Al Turk? Kongo looked like he has come along way since Heath Herring with his take-down defense and should be next in line after Brock Lesnar-Frank Mir.
-- Garrett Liles, Chico, Calif.

I'm still not sold on Kongo, especially not against a grappler like Lesnar or a submission artist such as Mir.

With 2008 wrapped up, what does your pound-for-pound top 10 look like?
-- Yumi, Osaka, Japan

1. Anderson Silva

2. Georges St. Pierre

3. Fedor Emelianenko

4. B.J. Penn

5. Miguel Torres

6. Rashad Evans

7. Quinton Jackson

8. Forrest Griffin

9. Shinya Aoki

10. Mike Thomas Brown

Eddie Alvarez could have been in at No. 9 had he defeated Shinya Aoki, but a 90-second tapout to a heelhook ended that. The loss to Joachim Hansen probably cost Aoki "Fighter of the Year" honors since a win would have put him at 6-0 with one no-contest in '08. I'm hoping we get to see a third bout in 2009.

On the strength of his stoppage over Mauricio Rua and points win over Jackson, Griffin remains in the mix. However, since 2006, Jackson's ledger is more impressive and consistent, which is why he sits one spot higher despite his July setback.

Be warned: there should be plenty of shuffling in the top five in the coming month.

With the next Affliction event approaching, how do you think the fight between Andrei Arlovski and Fedor Emelianenko will go down? More importantly, how do you think Arlovski can win this fight?
-- Greg, West Chester, Pa.

Arlovski has to avoid extended periods on the bottom. If Fedor works from Arlovski's guard or half-guard, it's going to be a rough night for the former UFC champ. The "Pit Bull" has to keep it standing.

Freddie Roach is training Arlovski, helping him to find angles as Fedor moves straight forward. I saw Arlovski spar eight rounds of boxing last week and he looked good, even if he said it was his worst day during his three weeks in Los Angeles. Roach and Arlovski acknowledged Fedor's power and accuracy (if the champ throws punches, he usually connects), and we've seen what a good pop to the chin does to Arlovski. He can't take a clean shot. He also can't be defensive -- or apprehensive -- because Fedor will swarm him.

Right now, Arlovski is trying to convince himself he won't be overmatched. Roach alluded to Fedor building a Mike Tyson-like mystique to the point where he's won fights before the opening bell. That can't happen for Andrei to be competitive.

One more note: Arlovski and Roach both said the fight won't get out of the first round.