Happy Junior poised to continue fast start at Daytona

If Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s first two races with his Rick Hendrick team are any indication, the two should enjoy a long honeymoon. Worth Canoy/Icon Smi

You could see all of this coming: the dominance right out of the gate, the celebrations in Victory Lane, the air of confidence that only grows out of winning.

I certainly saw it coming on a late January afternoon in Charlotte when Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Rick Hendrick sat down with me in a conference room at Hendrick Motorsports to discuss Junior's move to Hendrick, which I wrote about in this week's issue of SI.

As we chatted for about an hour, Junior was as relaxed and content as I've seen him in the eight years he's been racing on the Cup circuit. "I definitely feel different now," Junior said. "I feel like this move is going to turn out to be the best thing I could have done for my career. Everybody says there's pressure, but I don't really feel it, because I know I'm going to have awesome equipment. I can't wait to get the season started."

And what a start it's been. Last Saturday night, he won the Bud Shootout in his first race for Hendrick Motorsports, and on Thursday, he backed that victory up by taking the checkered flag in his qualifying race. So he's two-for-two at Hendrick, and his performance during Speedweeks makes him the overwhelming favorite to win the 50th running of the Daytona 500.

But Sunday's event likely will be as crash-filled as any 500 in recent memory, which means Junior will have to avoid the carnage to reach Victory Lane. The new Car of Tomorrow, which NASCAR is now calling the Car of Today, still has handling problems through the corners. Combine this with the fact that tires have been wearing down after about 25 laps (which causes the cars to lose their grip on the track), and you have a recipe for wrecking. Expect not one, but two big ones Sunday.

Two other drives to keep on eye on during the race: Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch, two Toyota drivers. The 500 is the one marquee race Stewart has yet to win in NASCAR, and he's been consistently fast during practice sessions. Busch is another popular pick in the pressroom because, during short runs, no one appears to have the speed to catch him.

But neither Stewart nor Busch has what Earnhardt possesses right now: momentum. It's definitely Little E's 500 to lose, and it says here that he'll end his 62-race winless streak in points-paying events by reaching Victory Lane on Sunday evening.

Decisive Factors Daytona 500 Three key elements to watch for at this weekend's Sprint Cup race at Daytona International Speedway In the two qualifying races Thursday, the preferred route around the track was the high line. If this pattern holds up in the 500, it will favor Earnhardt, who's the most talented rim rider in the series today. Who's the biggest wild card Sunday? Michael Waltrip. A two-time 500 winner, he qualified second behind Jimmie Johnson and he had an impressive car in the second Gatorade race Thursday. He laid back for most of that event trying to provide drafting help to his teammate Dale Jarrett, so his 13th finish is deceiving. But don't be surprised if Waltrip, the face of the cheating scandal in last year's race, is in contention late. Don't expect a Ford or Dodge driver to make much noise Sunday. This race will come down to a battle between the Gibbs trio (Stewart, Busch and Denny Hamlin) and the Hendrick foursome (Earnhardt, Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Casey Mears).