Toyota threatening America's NASCAR stranglehold

Matt Kenseth, who won last year's Auto Race 500, has a history of success on intermediate-length flat tracks like Fontana. Todd Warshaw/Getty Images for NASCAR

For the first time on the Cup circuit this century, it's going to happen Sunday in Fontana, Calif.: A foreign manufacturer will celebrate in Victory Lane.

Sunday's Auto Club 500 at California Speedway represents the true test for how far Toyota has advanced since last season, when its top driver, Dave Blaney, finished 31st in the final standings. The Toyotas were the talk of Speedweeks at Daytona because they packed more horsepower than the Chevys, Dodges and Fords -- and because the Toyota duo of Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart were the dominant drivers of the 500.

But success at Daytona can often prove to be fool's gold, as Kevin Harvick found out last season. Because Daytona is a restrictor-plate track, teams can't apply what they've learned there to other venues except Talladega. But whoever runs well at California this week and Las Vegas next week -- both of which are intermediate tracks, which form the meat-and-potatoes of the Cup schedule -- will likely be a strong contender to make the Chase.

Toyota especially wants to run well on Sunday. The company's headquarters is in Torrance, Calif., which makes Fontana the automaker's home track. Many of the heavyweights in the company will be trackside, including Lee White, the vice president of Toyota Racing Development, the company's competition arm. I spent some time with White at Daytona, and he related to me what may turn out to be one of the most important stories of this season.

Go back to the fall of last year. Joe Gibbs Racing was considering switching from Chevy to Toyota, but when J.D. Gibbs, the president of JGR, asked his drivers if they were interested in making the move, they all said the same thing: no way.

Stewart was the most skeptical. To win him over, White flew to Stewart's sprint car race shop in Brownsburg, Ind., one afternoon last September. The two walked up to a second-floor apartment that Stewart keeps above his sprint cars, plopped down on folding chairs, and for five hours White put the hard sell on the two-time Cup champion, emphasizing that Toyota, the biggest automaker in the world, would invest as many resources as it would take to win a championship. "We hit it off," Stewart says. "After learning more about Toyota, it was obvious that this was a good move for us to make."

"Tony and I just talked racing," says White. "I think once he understood how committed we are to winning, he was fine with making the move."

So far, it appears the switch to Toyota by J.D. Gibbs was a stroke of genius. As I wrote in the magazine this week, Toyota Racing Development has more than 200 engineers and machine specialists at its shop in Costa Mesa, Calif.; combined, Chevy, Ford, and Dodge don't have this much manpower. Plus, Toyota's struggles in '07 have turned out to be something of a blessing for '08.

"No Toyota team made the Chase last season, and they really used that as opportunity," says Gibbs. "While Hendrick and Roush [Fenway Racing] and Childress were focused on trying to win a championship, Toyota concentrated on doing research and development in their engines. And they got big time results."

Yes they did. And on Sunday, Stewart will reap the benefit of Toyota's diligence and deep pockets when he takes his first checkered flag of 2008.

Decisive Factors Auto Club 500 Three key elements to watch for at this weekend's Sprint Cup race at California Speedway California Speedway is a horsepower track. This should favor the Toyotas of Gibbs and the Chevys of Hendrick Motorsports. Can Ryan Newman follow up his Daytona 500 win with a top-five run? Well, Sunday will be a test for the 12 team, which has only recorded one top-15 run at California Speedway in its last five starts. Keep an eye on Matt Kenseth. He's the defending winner of this race and he always excels on intermediate-length flat tracks like Fontana.