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Posted: Friday July 4, 2008 8:25AM; Updated: Friday July 4, 2008 8:25AM
Lars Anderson Lars Anderson >
INSIDE NASCAR

Five bold predictions for the second half of the Sprint Cup season

Story Highlights
  • After winning 18 races last year, Hendrick team has won only twice in '08
  • Points leader Kyle Busch has already won five races this season
  • Tony Stewart and crew chief Greg Zipadelli on shaky ground lately
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After a summer conserving its energy, Jimmie Johnson's No. 48 team is expected by many to make their usual late-season push up the Cup points standings.
After a summer conserving its energy, Jimmie Johnson's No. 48 team is expected by many to make their usual late-season push up the Cup points standings.
Fernando Medina/US Presswire

Saturday night's race at Daytona marks the midway point of the Sprint Cup season. Here are five predictions for what will transpire between now and when the checkered flag waves in Homestead, Fla., on November 16.

1. Hendrick Motorsports will ... flex its muscle in the second-half of the season.

So far in 2008 team Hendrick, which won half of the races (18) last season, has only reached Victory Lane twice. But this has been somewhat by design. Late last season, as other teams were vigorously testing the Car of Tomorrow, Hendrick put its resources into winning the '07 Cup and finding speed in the old generation of car. The strategy worked, as Hendrick's Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon finished one-two, respectively, in the final standings.

But as a consequence of last year's Chase, Hendrick fell behind the other power teams in its CoT program, which is reflected in the team's struggles to win races. Yet no one at Hendrick has slipped into panic-mode. Three Hendrick drivers -- Johnson, Gordon, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- are good bets to make the Chase, and this organization has a history of heating up in the second-half of the regular season. Last year, for instance, Hendrick won eight of the last 12 races.

The driver to keep an eye on is Johnson, the two-time defending Cup champion. He's notorious for slumping in the summer months and then coming on at the start of the Chase. Chad Knaus, Johnson's crew chief, likes to ease the workload on his crew over the summer to prevent burnout late in the season, which is a common malady in the Cup garage, and Knaus is following the same script this season that's enabled his team to win two straight titles. The 48 team can't be considered the favorite to win the championship -- that distinction goes to Kyle Busch -- but Johnson and Knaus most certainly will make some noise before the season is over.

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. will have ... his best chance of his career to win his first championship.

Little E moved to Hendrick in the offseason for one reason: to compete for championships. Well, he's doing just that. Currently third in the points, Earnhardt has been among the most consistent drivers on the circuit this season. He hasn't been able to stay wheel-to-wheel with Kyle Busch, but that doesn't mean Junior can't win the Cup. Busch, after all, is prone to making heat-of-the-moment mistakes on the track, and if he suffers one finish in the Chase of, say, 30th or worse due to a wreck, Earnhardt could be in prime position to seize the title. Little E likely won't win as many races as Busch over the second half of the season -- Junior has only one victory so far in '08 -- but he could steal the title by ripping off a slew of top-5 runs in the playoffs, which is the way Kurt Busch captured the Cup back in '04.

3. Tony Stewart won't ... be at Joe Gibbs Racing in 2009.

Though Stewart's contract with JGR runs through the '09 season, few in the garage expect Stewart to be back with the team next year. Stewart and his crew chief Greg Zipadelli have been bickering more than usual over the radio this season, and week in and week out Stewart has voiced frustration over the poor quality of his car. Stewart, who's ninth in the points, still could be a threat to win the title, because he has a history of going on second-half rolls, but he certainly appears to be unhappy at Gibbs, where he's no longer the team's top driver. Plus, Stewart wants to get involved in ownership of a Cup team, and that won't happen as long as he's at Gibbs. Add it all up and it's a good bet that at some point in the next few weeks Gibbs will let Stewart out of his contract a year early and announce that Joey Lagano will be driving the 20 car in '09.

4. The wild card of the Chase will be ... Carl Edwards.

Edwards hasn't won a race since April, but don't let that deceive you: He's a driver who could be the surprise of the playoffs. Edwards' three victories in '08 have come on intermediate-length tracks, and these venues comprise six of the ten Chase races. In other words, to win the title, you must run well at these tracks, and so far in '08 Edwards has been the circuit's top racer on the 1.5-mile tracks. The rest of the garage closely studied Edwards' car during a test session at Charlotte after Edwards went on his early season win binge, and since then Edwards hasn't been as dominate. Still, if there's a driver outside of JRG or Hendrick who can win the title, it's Edwards.

5. Nonetheless, your 2008 Cup champion will be ... Kyle Busch.

The current leader in the standings, Busch is having, put simply, a spectacular year. He's already won five races and by season's end he could have as many as 12 victories. What makes him so good? Most significantly, he excels at driving a loose racecar, which means the backend of the car slides up the track when it enters the turn. While most drivers have to lift off the throttle to maintain control when this happens, Busch is able to manhandle his car and find the very outer edge of that line between being in control and crashing. Drivers have consistently complained that CoT is handling nightmare, especially in traffic, but Busch has come closer to mastering the art of driving these cars than any other driver. And if he doesn't win the championship, it would be an upset.

 
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