High stakes await drivers on the bubble in California

For Kasey Kahne, a win at California could secure a spot in the Chase. Icon SMI

Kasey Kahne stood in the back of the infield media center at Bristol Motor Speedway last Friday afternoon, carefully studying a monitor that listed the points standings in the Cup series. Kahne was in 12th place at the time, squarely on the Chase bubble, and he was double-checking how much of a cushion he had between himself and 13th place. Well, it wasn't enough, because a day later Kahne got caught up in wreck in the Sharpie 500, finishing 40th and dropping to 14th place in the standings.

Such is the precarious position that several drivers now find themselves in. With two races left before the start of the Chase, nine drivers are either locked or virtually locked into the playoff field: Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon. But the last three Chase spots are still very much up for grabs between five drivers: Matt Kenseth (currently 10th in the standings), Denny Hamlin (11th), Clint Bowyer (12th), David Ragan (13th) and Kahne (14th).

Let's break it down. Sunday's race is at California Speedway, a two-mile flat track that has been dominated in recent years by Roush Fenway Racing. A Roush Ford has won five of the last ten events in Fontana, and this bodes well for Kenseth and Ragan, two Roush drivers. Kenseth has two victories at California and he finished fifth here earlier this season. Kenseth also has a history of success at Michigan International Speedway, which is another flat track that has similar characteristics to Fontana. Barring mechanical failure, Kenseth should be good for another top five run on Sunday. If that happens, then all Kenseth will have to do to make the Chase is simply match his average career finish at Richmond (15.6) next week and he'll be in the Chase. It says here he gets in.

Ragan is something of a wildcard. He started the season slowly, but has come on in the summer, compiling five top 10 runs in his last seven starts. In three career Cup races at California Ragan has never cracked the top 10 -- his average finish is 14.0 -- but he's as hot as any driver on the circuit right now not named Carl Edwards or Kyle Busch. Plus, the Roush Fenway organization is starting to emerge as the elite team in NASCAR. Jack Roush always tries to get his teams to peak in last days of summer, and that's exactly what Ragan, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle are doing. If Ragan can reel off back-to-back top 10s over the next two weeks, he'll make the Chase. I think he gets the job done.

So who will claim the final spot in the playoff field? I'm going with Kahne. Even though he's currently 14th in the standings and 56 points behind Bowyer for 12th, the schedule sets up well for Kahne. He won in Fontana two years ago and he's finished in the top 10 at Richmond in five of his last seven starts there, which includes one victory. Plus, Kahne is simply a more skilled driver than both Bowyer and Hamlin. Kahne is one of the best closers in NASCAR -- if he's in the lead pack in the final laps of a race, chances are he's going to win -- and he and his team rarely make careless mistakes. This is key, because one flubbed pit stop over the next two weeks could translate into missing the Chase.

For Kahne and the rest of the bubble drivers, the stakes couldn't be any higher. For them, over these next two races, every lap -- and every point -- matters.