Don't expect a thrilling race, but look for Johnson at the front

Jimmie Johnson is likely to drop to the back of the field at Talladega for the first part of the race. Getty Images

A thrilling, heart-pounding race, this will not be.

On Sunday at Talladega, you can expect teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon to drop to the back of the field soon after the green flag flies for the fourth race in the Chase. For 450 miles of the 500-mile event, they'll cruise around 'Dega at less than full throttle, trying to avoid the Big One -- the multi-car accident that always erupts at Talladega. Then, late in the race, the Hendrick Motorsports boys will pound the gas and light a blue streak up through the field, roaring into the lead pack with about 15 laps left. This has been their strategy in past races at the 2.66-mile track, and there's little reason to believe it will change on Sunday.

But it probably won't just be Johnson and Gordon light-footing it for the majority of the race. After finishing second to Johnson last week in Kansas, Carl Edwards joked that he'd like it if he, Johnson, and Greg Biffle -- the three drivers still standing in the title hunt -- all ran nose-to-tail with each other at Talladega for the entire race. Well, this is probably exactly what will happen. Because once Edwards sees Johnson and Gordon (and Dale Earnhardt Jr.) drop to the rear, he and his Roush Fenway Racing teammate Biffle will likely follow suit. So there's a good chance that all of the top drivers in the sport will putter around the track for the better part of three hours before charging to the front.

If this scenario plays out -- and many birdies in the garage tell me it will -- it will underscore the odd role that Talladega plays in the Chase. By having six of the 10 Chase races take place at 1.5-mile tracks, NASCAR has placed a premium on performing at these intermediate-length venues. If you're going to win the championship, you simply have to run well on the intermediates.

Talladega is the only superspeedway track in the Chase, which has rendered it almost insignificant. Drivers that are contention for the championship, after all, aren't focused on winning at 'Dega; they just want to survive with a top-10 finish and move on to the next race in the schedule. "If you could tell me that I could have a top-10 run and not win at Talladega, I'd take it in a heartbeat," Biffle told me last week. "Talladega is the one wildcard in the Chase. I mean, you can be going along minding your own business and then wham!, you get collected in somebody else's accident. There's a huge element of luck involved at Talladega."

Yes there is, which is another reason most of the drivers dread 'Dega. Nearly everyone in the garage feels the same way Biffle does about this race: just get it over with as soon as possible with as little damage as possible. And because Talladega is always a game of survival, drivers won't take as many chances as they do at other tracks, which diminishes the quality of the event. This raises a question that will be debated in the garage all weekend: Does Talladega belong in the Chase?

I think it does, because a restrictor-plate race should be represented. This makes all the testing done at Daytona -- another plate track -- in January relevant to the championship. Yet until dropping to the rear of the field is proven to be a flawed strategy, drivers will continue to play it cautious at 'Dega. So on Sunday there will be plenty of single-file, ho-hum racing. Still, there is this to look forward to: A riveting final few laps, which Talladega always delivers. Expect Johnson to survive the carnage and be celebrating in Victory Lane.