The storylines to watch in 2009

Joey Logano could make it to the Chase next season. Getty Images

With Jimmie Johnson all but assured the 2008 championship -- he holds a 106-point advantage over Carl Edwards with two races to go -- here are the five most intriguing storylines that I'll be following next year.

1. Can Johnson four-peat?

Well, it's never been done before, but Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus will be well-positioned to make history. Although Johnson will have a new spotter next season, most of the rest of his team returns. And at 33, Johnson is in the prime of his racing career. Here's a scary thought for the rest of the garage: His best days could still be ahead of him.

But Johnson's biggest asset in his bid to four-peat will be Knaus. Everyone I talk to in the garage says the quality of the car is far more important than the quality of the driver. To break it down, most longtime observes will tell you that it's 90 percent car and 10 percent driver. And over the last three years, Knaus has clearly been the top crew chief in the garage. Week in and week out, no matter what kind of track the circuit is visiting, Johnson typically has a top-five car. There's little reason to believe that this will change. After all, Knaus has access to as many resources as any other crew chief in the sport, thanks to the near-bottomless supply of money at Hendrick Motorsports.

So can this duo pull off the four-peat? Right now, you'd have to say that they're at least the favorites to win the '09 championship.

2. Will 18-year-old Joey Logano live up to the hype?

So far Logano's Cup career has gotten off to a rocky start. In three races, his best finish has been 32nd, as he's consistently complained of a "loose" car. But those close to Logano aren't worried that he's yet to be competitive. He's won in every series in which he's raced and, as the primary test driver for Joe Gibbs Racing this season, he consistently turned laps in tests that were faster than the top Cup regulars.

Plus, next season when he jumps into Tony Stewart's old No. 20 Camry, he'll inherit Greg Zipadelli as his crew chief. Zipadelli guided Stewart to two championships, and he's generally regarded as one of the top five crew chiefs. So if anyone can figure out how to make Logano comfortable in the car, it's Zipadelli.

There's a lot of pressure on Logano to perform. NASCAR is aggressively promoting the young driver, and series officials have the private hope that Logano will one day soon be as popular as Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon. There aren't a lot of young up-and-coming drivers in the sport right now, so Logano is important to NASCAR. Will he make the Chase next season? I think he will.

3. Will Mark Martin flourish at Hendrick Motorsports?

Next year Martin will take over the No. 5 Chevy from Casey Mears. Martin, who raced only part time this season for Dale Earnhardt Inc., has finished second in the final points standings four times in his career, and in 2009 he should be a serious contender to win his title. This, after all, is why he signed a one-year deal with Rick Hendrick, to have a shot at that elusive championship.

How will Martin do? He'll be paired with crew chief Alan Gustafson, who led Kyle Busch into the Chase in 2005 and '06. Martin should be a safe bet to qualify for the Chase and then, who knows? He doesn't take your breath away with anything he does on the track, but, like Jimmie Johnson, he rarely makes mistakes or does anything to beat himself. He should be good for at least two wins next season.

4. Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. contend for the championship?

If Little E is ever going to seriously challenge for the championship, it'll be next year. He and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. will be in their second season at Hendrick Motorsports, so the adjustment period will be behind them.

But the biggest reason I think Little E will be in the title mix deep into the 2009 season is because of the patience he's recently shown on the racetrack. For most of his career his strategy has been to gun for the front as soon as the green flag drops and then try to stay up there. The problem with this all-or-nothing style has been that it often uses up his equipment.

But this year, especially in the last few weeks, Earnhardt has improved at conserving his equipment and then making a late charge up through the field. If he can keep this up and minimize the on-track mistakes -- and he's made more than his fair share over the years -- then he should be a player in the championship next fall.

5. Will Kyle Busch rebound from his nightmarish Chase?

Busch's collapse in the Chase has been, without question, the biggest surprise of the '08 season. Entering the Chase, Busch had won eight races and was clearly established as the driver to beat. But mechanical problems, over-aggressiveness and being in the wrong place at the wrong time undid his title hopes. He's 10th in the standings and already looking toward next season.

Can he recapture his magic? He has plenty going for him. He's young (23), he's the top driver at Joe Gibbs Racing, he knows that Toyota Racing Development (TRD) is planning on pouring an obscene amount of resources into its motor sports program this offseason, and he's developed a nice rapport with crew chief Steve Addington. What Busch needs to improve on, however, is his history of flaming out late in the season. Until he figures this out, he'll never win the championship, no matter how much he dominates the regular season.