Put up or shut up time for El Tri

Carlos Salcido and Mexico failed to win two straight road games in October, against Jamaica and Canada, both key World Cup qualifiers. Luis Acosta/AFP/Getty Images Luis Bueno's Mailbag Submit a comment or question for Luis. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

In the more than two years since Mexico bowed out of the 2006 World Cup, El Tricolor has played in several games of critical importance. Still, for all the weight the '07 CONCACAF Gold Cup final and Copa América semifinal carried, neither was as important and significant as Wednesday's 2010 World Cup qualifier in Honduras.

This crucial match won't have the exhilaration of a cup final nor the allure of playing a storied side in a storied tournament, but there could be plenty of long-term ramifications.

Mexico is in a dubious position. By not having taken care of business in Jamaica and Canada, it is facing elimination from the World Cup. That El Tri is near death at such an early part of qualifying is in and of itself a minor failure. But if the worst were to happen and Mexico would be ousted, such a fate seemed unthinkable only a few months ago.

"We didn't think it would be so much of a struggle in the qualification rounds," Mexican Soccer Federation President Justino Compeán said at the Honda Soccer Symposium in Los Angeles a week ago. "We haven't gotten enough points as a visiting team and we have not got the goals we have wanted. We're concerned because our expectations were to be already qualified. But we see light at the end of the tunnel. We're certain that we will advance to the next round."

Advancing to the next round would be status quo for Mexico. A ticket to the final round was supposed to be a circumstance of playing these matches as a berth in the Hexagonal was supposed to have been a given. Instead, Mexico needs a result in Honduras to ensure qualification. Has the mighty fallen? Not quite, but failure to reach the next round would be a catastrophe.

Why has Mexico struggled? There are plenty of reasons.

Paying for past dominance

As late as 1997, Mexico throttled its CONCACAF competition. In the days when Jorge Campos, Carlos Hermosillo and Luis Roberto "Zague" Alves fueled Mexico, the rest of the region was comparatively weak. Costa Rica and the U.S. were inconsistent while the Caribbean and the rest of Central America was feeble. Mexico cleaned up and thumped teams like the U.S., Jamaica and Honduras with ease, particularly at home. Rolling up four-, five- or six-goal victories wasn't uncommon.

Those nations have long memories. Jamaica lost at Mexico 6-0 in '97 and 4-0 in '01. But the Reggae Boyz got their long-awaited payback and dealt Mexico a tough setback, beating El Tri 1-0 in Kingston last month. Canada had nothing to play for when Mexico paid a visit to Edmonton last month either, but the Canadians nonetheless played the game of their lives and pulled out a 2-2 draw that should have been a win.

Now that the playing field has leveled somewhat, Mexico is faced with a test every match. So far, the road tests have been a bit insurmountable.

Lack of star power

Between the '94 and '98 World Cups, Mexico counted on Ramón Ramírez, Alberto García Aspe and Luis Hernández for guidance. Following France '98, Cuauhtémoc Blanco and Jared Borgetti took their turns as Mexican heroes. After the '02 World Cup, Borgetti was a pillar of strength and star power for El Tricolor.

But now that their collective shine has dulled, Mexico is left with an odd mix of veteran experience and promising potential, but no real superstar. For all his talents, Rafael Márquez is a more effective player at the club level than he has been with Mexico, while Pável Pardo is strong but a notch below his predecessors.

Nery Castillo was supposed to have been the next big thing but fell apart when his club situation deteriorated. Andrés Guardado is talented but not quite ready to assume superstar status. Carlos Vela and Giovani dos Santos are still too young to carry around such monikers, while the forward line hasn't seen a consistent threat since Borgetti.

Moving forward

Realistically, the chances of Mexico advancing are strong. Honduras needs to hand Mexico a lopsided loss while Jamaica has to win in similar fashion over Canada. A pair of 4-0 victories would knock Mexico out. The chances of that happening are slim. However, few would have predicted that Hugo Sánchez would have been fired after failing to a) win the Gold Cup, b) win the Copa América and c) qualify the Under-23 team to the Summer Olympics, a series of steps that has sunk Mexico to its current depths.

Now, Sven-Göran Eriksson is trying to guide Mexico to unprecedented heights. Winning a World Cup has been talked about since Sánchez's hiring, but the prospect of El Tri hoisting the Jules Rimet Trophy seems as far away as ever entering the final semifinal-round match.

While a much more attainable yet still monumental goal of reaching the quarterfinals is still in the future, the more immediate goal of showing well on the road and walking away with qualification in hand is a must. Otherwise, El Tri would usher in the darkest days of Mexican soccer.