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Posted: Thursday June 5, 2008 1:30PM; Updated: Friday June 6, 2008 10:58AM
Luke Winn Luke Winn >
INSIDE COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Who will stay and who will go (cont.)

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Russell Westbrook, PG/SG, UCLA, Soph.

Westbrook is only on this list because he has yet to sign with an agent. The rumor is that he'll soon ink with Arn Tellem, plus the fact that Westbrook stopped attending classes at UCLA and is a projected lottery pick, make it a near-lock that he'll stay in the draft. Only a Brandon Rush-caliber injury could bring Westbrook back to Westwood at this point.

Risk/Reward: Westbrook is in perhaps the most enviable position for a draft prospect: NBA teams are salivating over the athleticism he displayed against Memphis in the Final Four, and he hasn't been exposed long enough for scouts to pick apart his game. Going back to school -- where the Bruins are set in the backcourt with Darren Collison and Jrue Holiday -- might only hurt Westbrook's stock.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF, Jr., UCLA

There is little chance Mbah a Moute will be a first-rounder -- but that doesn't mean he'll surely be playing for Ben Howland again next season. Mbah a Moute is reportedly close to graduating from UCLA, and measured out well enough at the predraft camp (with a 6-foot-plus wingspan, and the third-highest vertical of any player over 6-7) to bolster his stock as a potential lock-down defender in the pros. "I heard he wants to stay in," one NBA player-personnel director said of Mbah a Moute. "He played his game [at the predraft camp]. He doesn't mess up much, and he guards well."

Risk/Reward: Should he return, Mbah a Moute could pull off the incredible feat of going 4-for-4 in Final Four bids as a collegian. UCLA would be good enough to run away with the Pac-10 and roll into Detroit. But if you've been to three Final Fours already, how much of an incentive is there to return, especially if you might not have the interior size to finally break through and win a title? Still, Mbah a Moute would have a much better shot at being a high-second-rounder -- and thus earning a guaranteed deal -- in 2009 than right now.

Joe Alexander, PF, West Virginia, Soph.

Alexander, who was a virtual unknown to scouts as of a year ago, has been shooting up draft boards after huge performances in March and impressive pre-draft workouts. Said one scout, "If [Alexander] waited 'til next season, he'd have a shot at going top-five -- but he's going in the lottery this year for sure, too, so I'm not sure if that matters."

Risk/Reward: He's is probably best-served by making the jump now; like Westbrook, scouts haven't begun to pick apart Alexander's game, but they are in awe of his raw athleticism. He genuinely enjoyed playing for Bob Huggins last season and could make the Mountaineers a Final Four darkhorse by returning, but expect Alexander to sign with an agent soon and make the leap to the NBA.

Jeremy Pargo, PG, Gonzaga, Jr.

Pargo is a strong athlete who may have a future as a backup point guard in the NBA, but he didn't show NBA-ready decision-making skills at the predraft camp, according to multiple scouts. The likely scenario -- unless he wants to take his chances as a mid-second-rounder -- is that he returns for his senior season with the Zags, who are loaded enough to be an NCAA tournament threat.

Risk/Reward: There's not much risk in Pargo going back to school. He's in line behind far too many point guards in this draft, and like UCLA's Darren Collison, could smartly wait until 2009, whose pool won't be nearly as filled with floor generals. Pargo won't be hurting for exposure at Gonzaga, either; with multiple other NBA prospects in his starting lineup (including Austin Daye, Matt Bouldin and Josh Heytvelt), scouts will be willing to make trips to Spokane.

Breaking Down the Rest of the Undecideds:

Likely in: Bill Walker, Kansas State; Chase Budinger, Arizona; Marreese Speights, Florida; J.J. Hickson, N.C. State; Ryan Anderson, Cal; Richard Hendrix, Alabama

Uncertain: Robert Vaden, UAB; Lester Hudson, Tennessee-Martin; Jamont Gordon, Mississippi State; George Hill, IUPUI

Likely out: A.J. Abrams, Texas; Ronald Steele, Alabama; Lee Cummard, BYU

 
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