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Posted: Thursday June 5, 2008 1:30PM; Updated: Friday June 6, 2008 10:58AM
Luke Winn Luke Winn >
INSIDE COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Which underclassmen will stay and which will go?

Story Highlights
  • Underclassmen have until June 16 to withdraw their names from the draft
  • UNC point guard Ty Lawson has impressed scouts with his speed
  • Other underclassmen who are still on the fence
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Ty Lawson
Ty Lawson's sought-after speed could make him a first-round draft pick this year.
Bob Rosato/SI
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The deadline for agent-less underclassmen to pull out of the NBA draft looms on June 16, and until then the state of college basketball in 2008-09 is TBD. Stepping out of of an Indiana Pacers audition at Conseco Fieldhouse on Wednesday was Tywon Lawson, the point guard for the would-be No. 1 team in every preseason poll, North Carolina -- emphasis on the would-be, because that ranking is contingent on Lawson returning for his junior season. Following Lawson on the Pacers' workout schedule today is his Tar Heels backcourt mate, Wayne Ellington; meanwhile the likes of Kansas' Mario Chalmers, West Virginia's Joe Alexander, and UCLA's Luc Richard Mbah a Moute -- fellow undecideds who very much matter in our attempts to forecast the next national champ -- are elsewhere on the workout circuit, their itineraries all paid for by NBA franchises. As those players contemplate their next moves, we are kept in suspense.

Lest you think such uncertainty is the norm, consider the State of the Undecideds from last season: From the predraft camp, the biggest names on the fence were Marquette's Dominic James, Virginia's Sean Singletary, and Texas A&M's Joseph Jones -- none of whom went on to have a major impact on the '07-08 season. Georgetown's Jeff Green, who would have had a huge impact as a senior, claimed to be wavering on turning pro, but few folks took him seriously, He was, after all, a top-five pick in most mock drafts. This year, however, nearly every title contender other than UConn has something at stake. National-title winner Kansas is waiting to hear whether its Miracle Man, Chalmers, will return; the Jayhawks' vanquished Final Four foe, UNC, is waiting on its top three backcourt players, Lawson, Ellington and Danny Green; and UCLA still has its two best defenders, Mbah a Moute and Russell Westbrook, on the fence. Deadline decisions will no doubt affect the foursome that reaches Detroit next March.

Here are the eight most important players we're waiting on, in descending order:

Ty Lawson, PG, North Carolina, Soph.

Multiple NBA teams who interviewed Lawson said he seemed adamant about his "top-20 rule" -- that he would only stay in the draft if he was assured of being taken among the first 20 selections. The fact that Denver, which needs help at the point and is rumored to be high on Lawson, selects at No. 20 makes it seem likely that he's already played his last game as a Tar Heel.

Risk/Reward: Lawson, who missed part of last season with an ankle injury, would have a shot at becoming a lottery pick in 2009 if he stayed in school -- plus he'd get to make another title run with Tyler Hansbrough. Rarely, though, does anyone turn down a guaranteed pro future; as one NBA player personnel director said this week, "I can't see how [Lawson] wouldn't be a first-round pick right now. Speed is such a valuable asset in the league now that teams are really trying to accumulate it -- and Lawson has that."

Wayne Ellington, SG, North Carolina, Soph.

Ellington went to the predraft camp with hopes of solidifying his status as a first-round pick, but didn't look smooth shooting the NBA three, and left Lake Buena Vista looking like he had little chance of getting such a guarantee. As one scout said, "I think the market for guards, as strong as it is right now, says that [Ellington] should go back to Carolina. His release looked slow -- he needs a half a second longer than a great shooter does to load up and get the shot off, and he's not really athletic, so he looks more like [an NBA] role player."

Risk/Reward: Ellington could stay in the draft and assuredly be selected -- but only in the second round. He could also return to Chapel Hill, get stronger, average 18 points per game alongside Hansbrough, and be a late-first-rounder in 2009, which is what I'm guessing he'll do.

Danny Green, SF, North Carolina, Jr.

In Florida last week, Green took a hard-line stance about staying in the draft even if he was a second-round pick. He said his family situation -- the fact that his father, Danny Sr., had recently been released from jail -- made it important for him to provide for them sooner rather than in 2009. But after suffering a hairline fracture in his left elbow at the predraft camp, Green's stance seems to be changing; that injury, as well as a sore ankle, has prevented him from being 100 percent in workouts with NBA teams this week and could result in a return to Carolina.

Risk/Reward: In his current condition, it will be tough for Green to impress NBA teams enough to earn a guaranteed second-round deal. The most likely scenario is that he plays his senior year for the Heels, then becomes a late-30s pick in 2009.

Mario Chalmers, PG/SG, Kansas, Jr.

The word being floated by Chalmers' camp is that he needs a first-round guarantee to keep his name in the draft. Due to his comfortable family situation -- with his father, Ronnie, serving on Kansas' coaching staff -- there's no pressure on Mario to jump to the pros, but his stock may now be at an all-time high. Mock draft projections for Chalmers fluctuate between the late-first and early-second round, but one player-personnel director said this week that his team's board had Chalmers ahead of Lawson, and solidly into the first round.

Risk/Reward: Chalmers could return to Lawrence, where he's a hero, and for the first time in his career be KU's unquestioned star. He was quietly the team's best player for the past two seasons while Julian Wright, Brandon Rush and Darrell Arthur all received more NBA hype. But there's also no chance Chalmers can create another finish better than what happened in San Antonio. There's something to be said for going out on a high note, and my guess is Chalmers will do just that.

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