Change the game: The effects of the new three-point line (cont.)

3. There's Now More Space For Low-Percentage Two-Point Attempts -- and Defenses That Force the Most of These Will Thrive.

In a study published on Basketball Prospectus in February, Ken Pomeroy analyzed shot distance, frequency and accuracy from nearly 4,000 games over the previous five seasons. The two key things to take away from his findings: That there's significantly less accuracy on twos taken beyond five feet than there is on close threes; and that, to quote Ken, "Teams taking mid-range shots -- especially early in the shot clock -- are just making life easy for the defense more often than not."

The teams that already understand how to take away threes and force twos without fouling -- suggesting that many of those twos are taken in the mid-range, rather than the paint -- are probably best-suited to use the extra space to their advantage. The two best examples are Duke and UCLA, both of whom ranked below 250th in both percentage of threes and free-throws allowed last season. (As a result, Duke finished ninth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and UCLA finished third.) The key question for both of them this season will be whether the extra foot that their defenses extend on the perimeter opens up too many easy scoring chances in the paint. If they can limit the damage and stick to their old strategy, they should thrive.

Here are the 10 NCAA tournament teams from last season that allowed the lowest percentage of their points on treys:

4. Marginal Shooters Won't Command Much Respect.

Stevens said he thinks the "average" three-point shooter -- presumably who hits them at a low-30s clip, and may have been green-lighted at 19-9 -- might see the biggest drop-off, or be cut off from shooting threes altogether. So it makes sense to look at which good teams from last season weren't phenomenal marksmen from long distance; will these teams' marginal shooting abilities become too big of a liability with the new line?

Of NCAA tournament teams from '08-09, these were the worst 10 at shooting treys:

Coppin State (32.0 percent)
Kansas State (32.0)
Georgia (33.2)
UNLV (33.2)
Mississippi State (33.4)
San Diego (33.7)
Pittsburgh (33.8)
Arkansas (34.1)
Mississippi Valley State (34.2)
Texas-Arlington (34.6)

Kansas State, which didn't have a three-point shooter above 32 percent -- other than the since-departed Michael Beasley -- in its rotation, might be in trouble next season. But the most interesting case study will be at Pittsburgh, which was seventh-worst on that list. Last season, defenses were kept honest by the shooting of junior Sam Young (38.3 percent, 44 threes) and seniors Ronald Ramon (37.2 percent, 67 threes) and Keith Benjamin (37.0 percent, 51 threes). The Panthers' overall percentage was dragged down by the abysmal aim of point guard Levance Fields (27.7 percent, 28 threes) and Gilbert Brown (24.4 percent, 19 threes) -- both of whom will likely be in the starting lineup now that Ramon and Benjamin are gone.

If defenses sag down against Fields' penetration, and use help to double super-sophomore DeJuan Blair in the post, can Pitt make them pay? The Panthers are finding their way into plenty of preseason top 10s, but they won't be a contender without being able to pose some semblance of a threat from beyond 20-9.