Predicting the next breakout star by using offensive efficiency (cont.)

There are, of course, instances where a player displays star tendencies but never gets a chance to truly showcase them. Take a look at the case of Booker Woodfox, a transfer to Creighton from San Jacinto JC:

Booker Woodfox
6-1 Shooting Guard
Creighton, Sr.
Pct. Minutes Played in '07-08: 42.8
Pct. Possessions Used in '07-08: 25.7
Offensive Efficiency Rating: 114.1

I feel for Woodfox, a super-sixth man and master impressionist. He fits the star formula -- high usage, high efficiency -- but he'll never be a showcased guy, because he's stuck behind P'Allen Stinnett in the Bluejays' two-guard depth chart. Woodfox averaged 17.4 minutes per game last season, and was stellar in those short bursts: His 114.1 efficiency rating was better than elite scoring guards such as Arizona's Jerryd Bayless (112.5) and Indiana's Eric Gordon (112.5), which makes Woodfox one valuable weapon off the bench.

High-usage can turn out to be a bad thing when, as Basketball Prospectus made clear, it's not paired with high efficiency. Take the case of Rutgers' Corey Chandler, who took a star's share of possessions last season without delivering star-like stats:

Corey Chandler
6-2 Point Guard
Rutgers, Soph.
Pct. Minutes Played in '07-08: 56.5
Pct. Possessions Used in '07-08: 30.6
Offensive Efficiency Rating: 86.2

The painfully inefficient Chandler accounted for 30.6 percent of Rutgers' offensive possessions while he was on the floor last season, just 0.2 percent fewer than O.J. Mayo used at USC. But while Mayo's efficiency rating happened to be 105.2, Chandler's was an abysmal 86.2. It should be no shock that the Scarlet Knights finished ranked 320th in raw offensive efficiency as a team. Unless Chandler can markedly improve his percentages from the free-throw line (62.1) and the three-point line (31.8), Rutgers would be better off redistributing some of its offensive opportunities. Not all usage is good usage, and bad usage is more well-known by its common name: ball-hogging.