Five notes as the Chase nears |
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With five races to go before the end of NASCAR's regular season, here are five things to remember as drivers sprint to the Chase: 1. A win Sunday at Watkins Glen for either Jeff Gordon or Tony Stewart is probably not going to be a springboard to a 2008 Cup championship. The fact is, two of NASCAR's all-time best drivers have been disappointments this year (albeit disappointments when judged only against their own lofty standards). Both are road-course masters who dominated this event last year and should be considered major contenders this weekend. Indeed, I think the chances that one of them will win the race are excellent. But neither has shown the type of speed or consistency on intermediate ovals that is the hallmark of a champion. They'll both make the Chase, but I just don't see either of them turning a win at the Glen into any sort of championship run. Better luck next year, fellas. 2. Kyle Busch will be in the hunt for his first title all the way to the end of the season. After two straight mediocre finishes (at Indy and Pocono) there's some speculation in the Cup garage that the Shrub has come back to the pack. But that may just be wishful thinking. Busch has been so dominant this year, that he can afford to coast into the Chase while tinkering to get things ready for the season's final 10 races. He may not be doing that at all, of course, but I find it hard to believe that the folks over at Joe Gibbs Racing are working as hard on the car for this weekend as they are on the one that will be used at New Hampshire in a few weeks. Busch, as we all know, can drive just about anything, and he has won on all styles of tracks this year. Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards may have stepped up their games, but my money is still on Busch to close this thing out. 3. Mark Martin will contend for a championship in 2009. With Martin's move to Hendrick Motorsports next year, it's not much of a stretch to conclude that the veteran, one of NASCAR's all-time best drivers, should qualify for the Chase next year. But I think the ol' man showed everybody last week at Pocono that he can be a threat to win races. For much of that race he had the best car, and it was only a few slips on pit row that shuffled him out of the lead and back into the pack. He's going to have much better support at Hendrick next year, and the difference will be hard to ignore. 4. This is Matt Kenseth's desperate hour. The 2003 champion is sitting 13th in the points standings, just 11 behind Clint Bowyer (for whom the hour is getting pretty desperate, as well). That means that if the season had ended after Pocono, Kenseth would have been out of the Chase. Luckily for NASCAR's most consistently excellent driver, he's got five races in which to make up ground. It's unfortunate for him that the first of them is at the Glen, a course he does not love or even like, but I still like him best of all the other "bubble" drivers, a list that includes Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Bowyer and David Ragan. Along with Kenseth, all five drivers are within 81 points of each other. 5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. needs to step it up. When Junior hit Victory Lane at Michigan, it seemed likely that he might do so again once or twice before the Chase. That hasn't happened. And while he's still running extremely well, the No. 88 Chevy has been passed in the Hendrick garage by Johnson. If Junior is going to contend for a title, I would think he needs to win at least once more before the Chase begins. He is in a stretch of the season that has never been particularly kind to him, but if 2008 has been about anything for his team, it has been about exceeding expectations at almost every stop. This season has been his best in a long time. But now he doesn't just need to exceed expectations, he needs to win races. HOW TO DRIVEWatkins Glen International Gordon on whether it's harder for an oval racer to adapt to road racing: "I think it's probably difficult each direction. The biggest thing on the oval is to back off early, get it into the corner, and then get back on the gas. It's similar to how I run the road races as well. I try to roll the middle as fast as I can. And I think that's helped me on the road courses." PIT STOPS2: Consecutive races in which points leader Kyle Busch has failed to crack the top-10 -- last week he followed up a 15th-place showing at Indianapolis with a 36th at Pocono. 3: Number of times in 2008 that Busch has finished outside the top-10 in consecutive races 3: Number of top-3 finishes for Jimmie Johnson in the last three races. 2: Number of top-2 finishes for Carl Edwards in the last three races -- he also has 10 top-10 finishes in his last 12 starts. MEMORIES OF THE GLENAug. 13, 1995: Mark Martin leads a race-high 61 of 90 laps and bests Wally Dallenbach Jr. in The Bud at the Glen. It is Martin's third straight victory on the road course, as well as his last.
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