First impressions: Analyzing the West's opening-round series

The Skinny: The Lakers finished with their best record since the 2002 title team, but they haven't won a playoff series since '04. Kobe Bryant garners the headlines, but L.A. is actually a very deep, balanced team with no readily apparent weaknesses. The Lakers enter the playoffs hot, having won eight of their last nine. The Nuggets are back in the postseason for a fifth straight year, but they have lost in five games each of their previous four trips. Led by Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson, they finished second in the NBA in scoring (110.7 points per game) and love to get out on the break and run -- especially at home in the thin air of the Mile High City. But the Nuggets are weak defensively and could not stop the Lakers all season in losing the three games by an average of 16.3 points. It's hard to see that suddenly changing.

Key Matchup: Kobe Bryant vs. Allen Iverson. This matchup of two future Hall of Fame shooting guards will be fun to watch. Kobe (left) finished second in the NBA in scoring (28.3) and is the likely MVP. Iverson (right) ranked third in scoring (26.5), and enjoyed a 51-point, eight-assist game against the Lakers on Dec. 5.

X-Factor for Lakers: Ronny Turiaf. The 6-10 forward has been a high-energy guy off the bench all season. With Andrew Bynum still out with a knee injury, L.A. will need Turiaf to come in and spell Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom against a physical Nuggets frontcourt that features Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Eduardo Najera and Nenê.

X-Factor for Nuggets: J.R. Smith. The former preps-to-pros shooting guard has become a top sixth man, averaging 15.7 points (on 49.3 percent shooting) since the All-Star break. If he gets hot, he could win a game by himself. He might also get the call to guard Bryant if Denver decides to go with a bigger backcourt.

The Pick: Lakers in six.

The Skinny: The Hornets have been the NBA's feel-good story of the season, racking up the franchise's best record in its 20-year history and its first Southwest Division title. Led by MVP candidate Chris Paul, they are solid across the board with no real weakness -- other than a distinct lack of playoff experience. It could prove fatal against a deep, veteran Mavs team seeking redemption after last year's playoff flameout. Dallas has looked sluggish most of the season and has had trouble beating top teams since the arrival of Jason Kidd in a midseason blockbuster. Still, Kidd is a savvy veteran with a proven record in big games. He will join with Dirk Nowitzki to give the Mavs a counterpoint to the Hornets' PG/PF tandem of Paul and All-Star David West. Dallas also has other proven supporting-cast members in Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Erick Dampier. It's going to be very difficult for the newbie Hornets to overcome a Mavs team motivated to get out of the first round.

Key Matchup: Chris Paul vs. Jason Kidd. Even though he's only in his third year, Paul (left) has been torching most of the top point guards -- Kidd included -- in head-to-head matchups all season. At age 35, Kidd won't be able to stay with Paul here, either. But Kidd's experience and mental toughness will enable him to keep the matchup close, and he has a knack for coming up with the key play at the end.

X-Factor for Hornets: Bonzi Wells. The veteran swingman, acquired in a midseason trade with the Rockets, is a bull inside with a bit of a mean streak. His toughness and playoff experience (36 career games) could be crucial.

X-Factor for Mavs: Dirk Nowitzki. The former MVP (right) has been waiting all year to redeem himself after last year's playoff flop. He showed just how determined he was recently when he shook off an ankle injury to lead the Mavs into the playoffs. Look for a big series for the German Bird.

The Pick: Mavs in six.

The Skinny: Two Western Conference heavyweights who don't like each other one bit meet in what should be a classic. The Suns have been waiting all year for another crack at the Spurs, who knocked them out a year ago in a second-round battle that featured a series-turning flagrant foul in Game 4 by Robert Horry and subsequent suspensions to the Suns' Amaré Stoudemire and Boris Diaw for leaving the bench area during the altercation. It marked the third time in five years San Antonio had eliminated Phoenix from the postseason. The Suns believe they have the answer now with Shaquille O'Neal, who helped them to a 15-5 record down the stretch -- including two wins over the Spurs. But San Antonio's Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili form a lethal threesome, and the Spurs have one of the best defenses in the league. Along with home-court advantage, that should be enough for the defending champs to survive Phoenix's fierce assault.

Key Matchup: Tim Duncan vs. Shaquille O'Neal. The Suns made the bold gamble to trade Shawn Marion for Shaq (right) at midseason partly with this matchup in mind. It paid off in the first two meetings as the Big Cactus limited Duncan to a combined 15-of-40 shooting en route to two Suns victories. But Duncan knows how to turn it up in the postseason, and the two-time MVP surely will have answers.

X-Factor for Spurs: Tired legs. With aging veterans Horry (37 years old), Bruce Bowen (36), Michael Finley (35), Brent Barry (36) and even Duncan (32 next week), San Antonio looked old and slow at times during the regular season. If the Spurs can't control the tempo, they might have a hard time keeping up with the run-and-gun Suns.

X-Factor for Suns: Leandro Barbosa. The 6-3 shooting guard once again was one of the top Sixth Man Award candidates, averaging 15.6 points. The Brazilian Blur must provide his usual spark and help take some of the load off Steve Nash and Stoudemire if the Suns are to dethrone the champs.

The Pick: Spurs in seven.

The Skinny: It's a rematch of last year's entertaining first-round series, claimed by Utah in seven games. Like a year ago, the Jazz come in as the higher seed but won't have home-court advantage because of their worse record. Utah once again will rely on its potent inside-outside punch of point guard Deron Williams and power forward Carlos Boozer. They helped make the Jazz one of the NBA's top offenses. However, Utah's firepower will be tested by a Houston defense that ranked fourth in points allowed and second in opponents' field-goal percentage. Meanwhile, the Rockets' Tracy McGrady has never made it past the first round in his six playoff trips, and will be fired up. He showed he can carry Houston during its 22-game winning streak earlier this season. But without Yao Ming in the middle, McGrady might not have enough help to get past a scrappy Utah team that knows how to make plays at crunch time.

Key Matchup: Andrei Kirilenko vs. Tracy McGrady. Kirilenko might no longer be a main offensive threat for the Jazz, but the 6-9 pogo stick is still a defensive force. His ability to slow McGrady (right) will be critical for Utah, which has shown a somewhat soft defensive underbelly this season. On offense, Kirilenko must hit outside shots to keep T-Mac (and Shane Battier) honest and prevent them from cheating too much on Williams' penetration.

X-Factor for Jazz: Mehmet Okur. The sweet-shooting big man was an unsung hero in last year's series win over the Rockets, forcing Houston to use its power forward to cover him, which left Boozer (left) free to abuse Yao inside. If Okur's hitting shots, the Rockets will have to go small or put Dikembe Mutombo on Boozer this time.

X-Factor for Rockets: Bobby Jackson. The veteran combo guard, acquired in a midseason trade with the Hornets, is a spark plug off the bench. With starting point guard Rafer Alston expected to miss at least the first two games with a hamstring injury, Jackson's ability to step in and run the show will be huge for Houston.

The Pick: Jazz in six.