Path to success unclear for teams stuck in the middle

While many critics doubt an aging Shaquille O'Neal can help the Suns, his six trips to the Finals may be just what Phoenix needs. AP

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For much of the NBA, the trade deadline has a straightforward focus. Those teams cruising to a playoff berth are looking to deal for the final piece to the Finals puzzle, while those in the express lane to the draft lottery are trying to peddle their veterans for young players or draft picks.

Stuck in the middle, though, are those teams whose destination is unclear, who are seemingly as close to the playoffs as they are to rebuilding. And for teams such as the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks -- clubs not in realistic title contention nor out of the playoff chase -- the decision about whether to trade yourself into or out of the postseason may be one of the most difficult in the NBA.

"It's wonderful to say everybody's goal is to win the world championship; that's a good sound bite," said Bob Ferry, general manager of the Washington Bullets from 1973-90. "But realistically, if you don't have the nucleus of players to build around to do that, then you're much more likely to take your lumps and take a chance in the lottery. But it's a huge gamble, and you're going to have to understand it can take years to build that way."

Before rolling the dice on that sort of fresh start, teams tend to consider the odds on a handful of key concerns. These issues say as much about a team's present as they do in determining its future.

Star power

Being invited to a party that includes more than half of the league may not qualify as exclusive, but the playoffs still offer a lot more pluses than minuses: revenue, exposure and an accomplishment to sell to fans. Still, the difference between attending as a low seed and getting a seat behind the velvet rope as a title contender is a function of having the type of talent that isn't common in the NBA.

"If your goal is to win the championship, you've got to have basically the best player in the NBA," said Ferry, who presided over a Bullets team that won the 1978 title and reached the postseason 14 times in his tenure as GM. "It doesn't make any difference what position."

While the occasional outliers -- the 2004 Pistons, the Sonics and Bullets of the late 1970s -- offer some evidence to the contrary, for the most part, the history of the NBA Finals is littered with the game's iconic figures, from Russell to Abdul-Jabbar to Magic to Bird to Jordan to Shaq and Kobe to Duncan.

Acquiring that rare talent has thus become the driving philosophy for many a team, an impetus that prompts some clubs to welcome a nosedive in the standings in hopes of winning the draft lottery. That is, when they are not continually searching for the right mix of complementary pieces to surround their MVP candidate.

"It's like a poker hand. Your best player is your wild card," Ferry said. "If you've got a couple of wild cards, then it's best to keep going, trying to pick the right players or make the right trades to add to what you have. If you don't, then you've got to decide how to get that player."

Tying your fortunes to the likes of a Jason Kidd, though, also ties a team to the whims of the player. That means a team could be compelled to make moves whether it wants to or not.

"Guys who make a lot of money often tell teams which way they want them to go," new Sixers GM Ed Stefanski said. "Players' attitudes and chemistry in the locker room and on the court will dictate whether you blow it up or not. If they decide that they don't want to be around and they make a ton of money, that forces a team to make a decision."

The goals of that choice differ, though, for a team running out the clock on a playoff run versus a club at the beginning of one.

"There is a decision to be made if getting in the playoffs is going to put you in a better position next year to go higher in the playoffs," said Pacers CEO Donnie Walsh, whose club missed the postseason for the first time in 10 years last season. "When you have a young team you should always want to make the playoffs because the more times your team is in, the better they are going to be once they grow up and get to a certain point where you can add the necessary players around them to make them an elite team.

"There's [also] a time you might look and say, 'We've had elements of this team that have been together for a long time; it's not working. What is our best value out there? Are we in a position where we can add players, or are there trades that will make us better, or should we just break up the whole thing?' "

That decision, according to Walsh -- who acknowledged that the Pacers need additions to become a better team -- will guide Indiana's moves and those of most teams this week and this summer.

To market, to market

No matter how many hours a front office spends scouting potential trade targets, a team's options are limited by the very opponents it hopes to beat.

"What you want to do isn't the question," Walsh said. "The question is, What are those teams I'm dealing with willing to do? If you make the right trades, it can go either way. It may allow you to break up the team, get draft choices, young players and start all over. On the other hand, if you're not able to do that, you may have to go in another direction."

Walsh cites the recent Shaquille O'Neal trade as an example of how quickly a team's plans can change. With Shaq signed for another two seasons at $20 million annually, the Diesel was thought to be all but untradable, a notion that likely would have had the Heat looking to quickly build a productive, if not title-worthy, supporting cast around O'Neal and Dwyane Wade. When the Suns came calling, though, the opportunity to rebuild for the long term was too enticing to ignore.

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