Draft class of '04 faces tough decisions about future

Having just turned 22, Josh Smith and his explosive games will be one of the top prizes in the free agent market this summer. AP

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Rookie contracts should all come attached with an hour glass. That's because once a first-round draft pick signs his name, the leverage a team has over him lessens with each day closer he gets to being free of the rookie contract scale that can keep a player tied to a team for the first four seasons.

But cry not for the NBA's rookie caste, not with a starting salary in the millions and the ability to sign a new deal after three years. That isn't a fait accompli for every player, though. Obviously, some players wash out. Others, however, choose to play the market, eschewing a new deal while hoping a fabulous year yields an offer beyond that already received.

Although that could cost a team millions more than it wanted to spend, or cost the team the player himself, it also offers the chance to match an offer dictated by a market quickly tightening its belt for all but showcase players. Should neither the market nor the team produce an offer to the player's liking, his final option is to accept a one-year qualifying contract in accordance with the raise dictated by his original draft position before becoming an unrestricted free agent after his fifth year in the league.

These are the decisions now facing the Class of 2004, aka the Dwight Howard-Emeka Okafor draft. Eligible for extensions last summer, only six former first-rounders likely to get significant contract offers inked deals. Did they make the right decisions? Just as important, did those players make a savvy move not to sign? Let's take a look.

Good decisions

Dwight Howard, Magic: Signed 5-year, $85 million deal in '07.

A max contract for the best big man in the East, and perhaps soon, the entire league seems a reasonable price to pay for everyone involved.

Jameer Nelson, Magic: Signed 5-year, $35 million deal in '07

Nelson almost lost his job last season, was benched again for parts of the current campaign, and his scoring average has fallen to its lowest level since his rookie campaign. Considering those factors and that he appears to have hit a plateau in his development, signing on for $7 million a year is looking pretty sweet for someone who likely is headed to the bench sooner than later.

Al Jefferson, T'wolves: Signed 5-year, $65 million contract in '07

Gone are the days when max contracts were handed out like lollipops to anyone capable of leading more than one category in a boxscore. The salary cap and the luxury tax saw to that. You need appeal on and off the floor to earn the Brinks treatment now. Players like Jefferson appear to realize that, not to mention $65 million is a lot of money, and not a figure likely to increase significantly in the years ahead.

Devin Harris, Nets: Signed 5-year, $43 million deal with Dallas in '07

Guards are not the scarce commodities frontcourt talents are, especially point guards who hadn't averaged as many as five assists a game until last season. Circumstances what they were (i.e. playing ringleader to Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry and friends), Harris made a cagey deal to develop some security as it appeared his role in Dallas wouldn't allow for the type of stardom of which leverage is earned. As his new role with the Nets develops, Harris may regret his signature, but he can't be blamed for inking a contract that was smart at the time given his place in the NBA atmosphere.

Josh Smith, Hawks: Failed to reach new agreement

Just when the Hawks seemed to be righting the wrong personnel decisions of the past by drafting Rookie of the Year candidate Al Horford and promising point guard Acie Law IV, they go and open the door for their most talented player to leave. Reportedly believed to be searching for a deal at least in the five-year, $50 million range, Smith apparently found nothing of the kind in his hometown of Atlanta.

The stalemate prompted one of his agents to lament in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "They made their one offer in July, we didn't agree with it, and they really haven't shown any interest in doing anything else."

Is that any way to treat a 22-year-old jumping jack of a forward whose scoring average has risen each year he's been in the league, who has averaged almost three blocks a game in each of the past two seasons and who has learned to cut down on the three-point shooting that he showed little aptitude for and which previously drove Hawks coaches to distraction? Atlanta is going to find out -- and it won't be pretty.

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