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Déjà vuLike 'O7's No. 1, Ryan has a lot of questions to answerPosted: Tuesday February 26, 2008 1:26PM; Updated: Tuesday February 26, 2008 4:27PM
On Saturday night, I walked into room 560 at the Omni Hotel in Indianapolis to interview Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan and I thought immediately: I've been here before. Crazy. A year, before, I'd actually been in the same suite setup, just one floor higher, to interview JaMarcus Russell on Saturday night of scouting combine weekend. Both Ryan and Russell were Athletes Performance Institute clients and spent time before the combine at the API fitness center in Tempe, Ariz., to get in optimum shape. Russell was clearly the candidate to be the top quarterback picked in the 2007 draft, just as Ryan is this season. Russell was picked first overall by Oakland; I expect Ryan to go no lower than eighth overall to Baltimore -- though if I'm guessing, I'd put Ryan third, to Atlanta. Some observations about the two guys: Russell was a normal college kid, trying to adjust to life as an icon with everyone trying to grab a piece of him, a little awkward in the bright lights. He was being led around by his uncle, Ray Russell, who was involved in the interview throughout. Ryan was Joe Cool, Joe Prepared, looking me in the eye, answering questions in complete and thoughtful sentences. His agent, Tom Condon, sat way in the back of the suite, out of earshot of the interview. The knock on Russell, from NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock, was that teams might be worried about his work ethic and commitment and could shy away from wanting to draft him and guarantee him $30 million. The critique seemed valid when Russell weighed in at the combine at a doughy 265. But Ray Russell told me a story of he and JaMarcus driving two days to a quarterback camp in California, just so he could be a ballboy at the camp. The two Russells seethed at Mayock's criticism. Ryan has some football questions about him -- accuracy, decision-making -- but none about his desire. He answered all the negative football stuff I threw at him without portraying any anger. He just thought it was part of the combine process, answering negatives about himself. Russell dressed like all the players at the combine, very casually. Ryan dressed like none of the players at the combine, in business attire. Two other things: Russell's arm is one of the best to come out of college football; he can throw the ball 82 yards on a windless field by simply winding up and taking one step. Ryan's arm is better than average but not great. Neither player threw at the combine. As for the future, it's hard to read. Russell held out through training camp, then reported to the Raiders in September at 272 pounds -- not exactly the commitment you'd want in your franchise quarterback. Is it too much to ask for a player who's signed the richest rookie contract ever by a quarterback to come to work in shape? The guess here: Ryan will be a better pro than Russell. Now onto your e-mail: MATT RYAN'S NO TOP PICK. From Chad Josselyn, of Palm Coast, Fla.: "How did Matt Ryan jump up to first-round status? He was on nobody's first-round mock draft before the season. His only impressive stat is his 4,507 yards this season, but he averaged 47 passes per game, and if you check out my blog, you'll find out exactly how he isn't worthy of first round or top-five status. "I even put in on-the-field proof that downgrades the over-hyped leadership ability that everyone is raving about. Look at the box scores, comparative stats, and you'll see a very inconsistent quarterback. There's a reason why he didn't play in the Senior Bowl, and didn't throw in the combine. It's because he isn't that confident in his abilities and knows it'll hurt his stock more when they show exactly how unspectacular he is. Watch the game film, check the box scores, and look at the stats. It is as clear as day. This guy blew more late games than he won, he's too inconsistent, and to be a leader in the NFL you need to be consistent.'' A few comments, Chad, and thanks for your informed e-mail. 1. I believe JaMarcus Russell wasn't projected to be a first-round pick before his last year at LSU either. 2. Eli Manning, Tim Couch and Peyton Manning also skipped the Senior Bowl and the combine workouts, and it had nothing to do with their lack of confidence in themselves. Their agent, Tom Condon, doesn't think it helps the leader in the clubhouse to work out a lot before the draft, except on campus or in individual team workouts. 3. No quarterback in this draft is scar-free. They all have zits. Ryan forced too many passes, leading to his 19 interceptions. His completion percentage dropped to less than 60 percent this year. He doesn't use his checkdown receivers enough. Now, you might argue Joe Flacco or Brian Brohm is better, and it would be a valid argument. 4. In defense of Ryan, I write in SI this week that Ryan was playing with skill players who will never make a 53-man roster in the NFL; one scout's words, not mine. And he's about as polished a kid as you'd ever meet at that age. I think he's an intriguing prospect. But in the end, you're right. There are plenty of questions about him, and the washout factor for high-round quarterbacks is about 50 percent. So he may bust.
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