Breaking down the QBs, Millen's draft woes and more

Matt Ryan has all the tangible qualities of a top three draft pick in April, as long as teams can rationalize his 19 interceptions in 2007. Andy Altenburger/Icon SMI

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The curtain will be pulled back Tuesday afternoon on Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan, the top passer in the 2008 draft pecking order. Ryan will work out in Chestnut Hill, Mass., on the same day another Miami/Atlanta/Kansas City candidate, Virginia defensive end Chris Long, goes on display in Charlottesville.

Long doesn't have anything to prove, having performed well at the scouting combine and done everything but the bench press (he had a sore thumb in February). Ryan has more to show because he didn't compete at the Senior Bowl and didn't do passing drills at the combine; and now it's been almost 12 weeks since anyone in the NFL has seen him throw a football.

His workout should be mobbed. Not because he's a cinch top five pick, which he isn't. In fact, scouts and coaches I've spoken with in the past few days don't have a good handle on how high he'll go. It's interesting how Ryan's being targeted. In e-mails to this column and on talk shows and Internet sites, you won't find many fan groups welcoming Ryan with open arms. They don't think he's done enough to merit top-of-the-draft inclusion. Something about his 19 interceptions last year, or his 59 percent accuracy, or the fact he just seems a little too polished. Who knows?

But the fans aren't the only skeptics. One scout for a team with a top 15 pick who was assigned to break down all the quarterbacks in the draft told me: "Is Matt going to be Philip Rivers or Eli Manning, or is he going to be Tim Couch or David Carr? I don't know. I think he's the best quarterback in this draft, but I see signs on the high and low end that worry me.''

I thought I'd give you a rundown of how the first handful of quarterbacks -- say, all the ones who could be picked in the top four rounds -- should fall off the board, if my panel of pros is to be believed.

Somewhere in the top eight picks: Matt Ryan, Boston College.

One scout told me he doesn't like how Ryan passes himself off as an everyman, yet refused to work at the Senior Bowl and again at the combine. His agent, Tom Condon, and his coach, Jeff Jagodzinski, advised him to skip the events because, as the lead dog in the hunt, he had nothing to gain. Truthfully, that's right, but you'll still find some teams who hate when a player has a chance to show his wares in front of the entire league and passes. They wonder what he has to hide. It's sort of silly because if you can't get a read on Ryan by watching his 654 throws at BC this year, what kind of scout are you?

"I'll tell you who [Ryan] is,'' Jagodzinski told me Friday. "Matt Hasselbeck. The way he carries himself, commands the huddle, competes, is hard on himself. He's got it all. All those teams talking about Matt [Ryan], saying, 'Yeah, but ...' would all line up to get Matt Hasselbeck right now.''

Jagodzinski, who just finished his first year at BC, said if he had another year with Ryan, he'd give him the Peyton Manning-playbook treatment. "I'd give him everything at the line of scrimmage, like Peyton, and let him call the game,'' Jagodzinski said.

Somewhere between the 20th and 45th picks: Brian Brohm, Louisville and Joe Flacco, Delaware.

Scouts are sniffing around trying to find out why Flacco transferred from Pitt to become a big fish (a tall one, too) in a small pond at Delaware. He told me at the combine it was because he thought he wouldn't be able to beat out the fair-haired Panther passer, Tyler Palko. Some NFL teams don't like that explanation; they think he should have fought for the job longer. But he's got the biggest arm in the draft. One scout wondered if his height (6-6½) and mediocre mobility will hurt him, because no quarterback that tall has ever been a great one.

Brohm would have been a top 10 pick a year ago, and his drop confuses me. He completed 65 percent of his throws, had 30 TDs and 12 picks, and threw for a career-high 4,024 yards. One scout told me Ryan edges Brohm in arm strength (slightly) and physical strength (slightly). Still, knocking Brohm down to the second round seems misguided. There's no good reason to do it.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a team trade into the low first-round region to get Brohm. A bottom pick in the first round signs for slightly more than $2 million annually (29th pick Ben Grubbs got $11 million over five years last year). If you had an anemic passing game, wouldn't you gamble that money for a 50-50 shot at your quarterback of the future?

The best thing that could happen to Brohm -- to any young quarterback, really -- would be to reprise the Aaron Rodgers story: get drafted by someone with an established guy nearing the end of his career, bide your time and soak everything in.

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