Analyzing draft strategy, Pacman's future, more mail

Don't believe everything that comes out of Bill Parcells' mouth leading up to draft day. AP

MAILBAG Peter King will answer your questions each week in Monday Morning Quarterback: Tuesday Edition. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

Three football-savvy e-mailers check in with the same question this week, and, with so much uncertainty at the top of the draft, it seems like a logical one. I will let the aptly named Dan Wise of Minneapolis be the spokesman.

"This question might seem off the wall, but if teams are leery of paying the player they want top money, can't they just let time run out, allowing the next team to pick? The reason I ask is that if the Dolphins really want Virginia defensive end Chris Long and know he will be there in the fourth slot, why don't they just not pick until after Atlanta and St. Louis pick? They save money and get the guy they want."

Interesting. I've also been asked this on two talk shows since the combine in Indianapolis last month, and it was an interesting topic one afternoon in the media room at the combine. So it's on a few craniums out there.

Five points:

1. I don't think Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland know for sure who they want yet. I've heard the same thing as you, Dan, which is Parcells has taken a shine to Long. (Who wouldn't? If you don't like Long as a player and a person, you don't like ice cream.) But let me tell you about Parcells and the draft. It's altogether fruitless to talk to him about it; he's a CIA agent when it comes to draft day.

I'll never forget the 1986 draft, when I was covering the Giants for Newsday. I'd heard Parcells had sent a coach to Columbus to work out Ohio State linebacker Pepper Johnson a few days before the draft. On the eve of the draft I called Parcells. "Sounds like you're interested in Pepper Johnson,'' I said. The noise that came out of his mouth was something beyond, Are you kidding me? "Pepper Johnson? Pssssshhhhhhawwwww.''

Of course, 24 hours later, in the second round of the draft, an NFL minion stepped to the podium and said, "The New York Giants select linebacker Pepper Johnson, Ohio State.'' So whatever you hear out of the Dolphins in the next month, no matter how reliable the reporter reporting it, understand Parcells will be throwing a few misleading smoke signals out there.

2. The only way a strategy like this would be smart is if the Dolphins liked one or two other players nearly as much as they liked Long. That way, if the Rams or Falcons -- or a trading-up team -- nabbed Long, Miami would get a player it wanted, paying significantly less in the process.

3. I hear Eric Mangini and Jets personnel met with Long in Charlottesville on Monday night. Hmmmm. Probably simple fact-finding. But imagine, Jets fans, a front three of 285-pound Shaun Ellis, 330-pound (they hope) Kris Jenkins and 275-pound Long. Not to rumor-monger, but if the Jets, who pick sixth, fell in love with Long, could they give Parcells enough to entice him to trade out of the pick?

Remember, the last time Parcells had the first pick in the draft, 11 years ago, he was running the Jets and traded the pick to St. Louis for Orlando Pace. By the end of that weekend, the Jets had turned the top pick into seven draft choices. Parcells loves to deal.

4. I asked the agent for Long, Marvin Demoff, how he'd respond if he got wind that Miami, or any other team, was passing expressly to pay Long less. He said he'd treat the pick as if it were the first overall pick, because clearly the Dolphins would value him as the No. 1-overall pick but would be positioning themselves simply to pay less. I'm sure Demoff is not alone -- Tom Condon would do the same if the Falcons kept passing at No. 3 and then took quarterback Matt Ryan at, say, No. 7. Condon would hold out Ryan until he got third-pick money from the Falcons.

5. The draft's not as fun as it was even a decade ago, when trades at the top were so common. Now, because no one wants to pay the first overall pick $35 million guaranteed (approximately what it will take to sign the first pick this year), trades are much less likely.

Trading up to No. 1 wasn't taboo a decade ago. In 1995, I remember covering the Carolina Panthers on draft day, the first draft day of their history. GM Bill Polian wanted Penn State quarterback Kerry Collins. He knew no team in the top four wanted Collins, and he knew he could save a few bucks by trading down.

So he found a team he knew loved Penn State running back Ki-Jana Carter, the top player on a few teams' boards, and traded the first overall pick to Cincinnati for the fifth overall pick and the Bengals' second-round choice. Turned out to be a better trade for Carolina than Cincinnati -- Collins was largely disappointing for the Panthers, but did lead them to the NFC title game in 1996 -- but it wasn't an earth-shaker in retrospect.

Now onto your other e-mails:

• WHITHER PACMAN? From Chuck Hudson, of Boise, Idaho: "When he is on the field, Pacman Jones is arguably one of the best defensive backs in the league. Off the field, well ... As a Cowboys fan, the rumor that they are interested in him if he is put on the trading block concerns me. What is your take?''

My take is if Jerry Jones can get him cheap -- say, for a conditional second-day draft pick -- and can put enough behavior-related safeguards in the contract, he'd do it. As for the morals of the deals, well, I don't think it would stand in the way if Dallas thought he was good enough.

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