Conditions are ripe for a charged up draft this year

Patriots vice president of player personnel Scott Pioli (pictured) and Bill Belichick have made 46 trades, 25 during draft weekends. Damian Strohmeyer/SI

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Have you noticed something about the last three drafts? Something about a lack of electricity?

Since the Philip Rivers-for-Eli Manning deal that made the 2004 draft unforgettable, we haven't had a blockbuster draft-day trade. Last year the biggie was the Jets moving up from 25 to 14 in the first round to take Darrelle Revis; the previous year, it was Denver moving from 15 to 11 for Jay Cutler. Don't forget the Saints' trade up from 16 to 13 in 2005. For Jammal Brown. Sleeping yet?

You know the reason no one moves at the top of the draft anymore. First, the enormous guaranteed money owed to picks in the top of the draft scares off suitors. Second, there hasn't been a colossal can't-miss player in the last three drafts, except maybe for Reggie Bush. It's a pretty amazing statement when you realize the one can't-miss guy just might be missing.

I'm not saying there definitely will be more electricity in this year's draft. I am saying, though, it has a chance to be different because 10 of the top 37 picks (and 18 of the top 70) are held by five franchises I expect to be working hard to play Let's Make a Deal. They are:

• Miami, choosing first, 32nd, 57th and 64th. Bill Parcells looks at his roster, doesn't like what he sees, and wants to add as many of "His Guys" as he can, the same way he did the last time he had a franchise (the Jets) in his hands. He could add to his cache of picks if he decides to trade his fancy dancer, defensive end Jason Taylor, who I believe would love to be traded to a contender.

• Atlanta, choosing third, 34th, 37th, 48th and 68th. When I asked a friend of rookie GM Thomas Dimitroff on Saturday about what he thought his approach to building his team would be, the friend said: "He'll be very aggressive and he'll build through the draft. If I had to guess what he'll do this year, I'd guess he'll try to acquire more picks, because he knows how many holes he has.''

In other words, come and get that third pick. It's for sale.

• New York Jets, choosing sixth, 36th and 67th. Mike Tannenbaum has been most influenced in his career by two men -- Parcells and VP Scott Pioli of the Patriots. Both hate to stand pat. Tannenbaum knows he's got holes to fill at receiver, pass-rusher and corner, and he knows if he could get two first-day picks that are high enough to make it worth his while, he'd be smart to do so.

• New England, choosing seventh, 62nd and 69th. In their eight years running the Patriots, coach Bill Belichick and Pioli have made 46 trades; 25 of which have come on draft weekends. Unless the Patriots can find Mr. Goodbar with the seventh pick of the draft, and my feeling is that man must be able to rush the passer, I expect them to set modern telephone records for trying to dump out of that pick.

• Dallas, choosing 22nd, 28th and 61st. Jerry Jones is itching to make a big deal. Just itching. I say Pacman Jones is not big enough. I say Darren McFadden is.

"All those people seem like they'd be willing to trade,'' said a man who should know, former coach and now TV analyst Jimmy Johnson. "That would lend itself to a lot of movement, I would think. But will a player be there they all want? With all the guaranteed money now, you'd better be real sure about the guy, and you'd better want him real bad. Because if you miss on him, you really screw up your franchise.''

"Everyone figures Bill Parcells wants to get out of the number one spot,'' said agent Tom Condon. "But who is there [for other teams] to go up to get? Historically, the quarterback has been the guy people want. The question in this draft is: Does anyone view Matt Ryan as the franchise quarterback someone will move up high in the draft to go get?''

Condon represents Ryan, the Boston College quarterback for whom there's been no buzz around, nothing even remotely close to what JaMarcus Russell generated last year. I haven't talked to a soul in the last week who thinks Parcells will take him.

With a little less than five weeks left until the draft, the right people are in place to make a consequential deal happen. I believe one will take place. You've got Jones fawning over McFadden, the Arkansas running back, and with two late-first-round picks, the Dallas boss can go up and get him. You've got Parcells, and let me refresh your memory about Parcells the deal-maker.

In 1997, when he GMed the Jets, Parcells traded the first overall pick down to St. Louis, at number six, and then traded the sixth pick down to number eight. That's where he picked Virginia linebacker James Farrior, and the Jets finished the day with extra picks in the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds.

You've got Belichick. Johnson told me once that of the men he worked with, Parcells and Belichick were the two easiest with which to make deals. Tannenbaum made two trades in the first two rounds last year. Jones is tight with Parcells. Tannenbaum is tight with Parcells. Pioli is Parcells' son-in-law. Parcells mentored Belichick. Pioli mentored Dimitroff.

Of the five teams, I expect only the Jets and Patriots to steer clear of each other in the next five weeks. There's been a public falling-out between the former close friends who coach both teams, and that falling-out extends to Pioli and Tannenbaum. But aside from that, there will be trade discussions by the five previously mentioned teams.

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