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Buy, sell, or hold (cont.)

Posted: Tuesday January 8, 2008 12:25PM; Updated: Thursday January 10, 2008 3:51PM
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Kentucky: BUY

Seth Davis' Weekly AP Ballot
1. North Carolina
2. Memphis
3. Kansas
4. Georgetown
5. Washington State
6. Michigan State
7. UCLA
8. Duke
9. Texas A&M
10. Indiana
11. Tennessee
12. Texas
13. Marquette
14. Vanderbilt
15. Xavier
16. Butler
17. Dayton
18. Rhode Island
19. Pittsburgh
20. Wisconsin
21. Oklahoma
22. Arizona
23. Louisville
24. Mississippi
25. Stanford

Talk about a basement bargain. Cats have nowhere to go but up (I think), and with Derrick Jasper and Jodie Meeks healthy again, you might as well take a flyer on 'em.

Louisville: BUY

This has got to be the easiest pick on the board. Remember, last year the Cardinals were 6-4 in the Big East in early February and looked to be headed to the NIT. Then they got healthy and ended up a No. 6 seed in the NCAA tourney. This time, they got healthy in January. If they stay that way -- and if Edgar Sosa can somehow finagle his way out of Rick Pitino's doghouse -- then another mad dash is in the offing.

Marquette: HOLD

The Golden Eagles are short of quality big men and their guards don't make threes. But few teams do a better job masking their weaknesses and playing to their strengths. I don't see Marquette making its way to the top tier nationally, but they're a solid top-three finisher in the Big East and almost never lose games they should win. (There's no shame in losing close at West Virginia.)

Memphis: BUY

I'm usually skeptical that a team can go undefeated (and frankly wouldn't recommend it), but the Tigers have already survived the hard part of their schedule without a blemish. Right now, I'd give them a 50-50 chance to go into the NCAA tournament without a loss.

Michigan State: HOLD

The Spartans have been mighty impressive the last month, largely because Raymar Morgan is looking like an All-Big Ten player. But it's hard to see them going higher than No. 6 in both polls. Getting to the Final Four is a realistic goal for this group, but I'd be very surprised if they won it all.

North Carolina: BUY

For a team to be undefeated and ranked No. 1 and still warrant a Buy, you'd have to believe it will do nothing short of win the NCAA championship. And I do.

N.C. State: SELL

The Wolfpack was already struggling with Farnold Degand as their point guard. Now that he's gone for the year, they're even more deficient at this most critical position. (His replacement, 6-foot freshman Javier Gonzalez, is not ready for prime time.) Too bad, because in freshman J.J. Hickson and junior Brandon Costner, the Wolfpack have as good a 1-2 punch up front as you'll see in the ACC. But they still need someone to get 'em the ball.

Oklahoma: BUY

We knew the Sooners had some heft up front (my goodness, that Blake Griffin is something else), but their recent surge has been sparked by surprisingly efficient guard play. The top three spots in the Big 12 are pretty much locked up, but I like this team's chances of rising to the top of the second tier.

Ole Miss: SELL

In the twisted logic of the Hoop Thoughts stock report, the Rebs' win over Clemson actually makes them more likely to be rated a Sell. They're 13-0, they're ranked 16th in the AP poll, and they're playing at Tennessee Wednesday night. Seems to me they've got nowhere to go but down.

Pittsburgh: SELL

You'll want to keep an eye on this one because there's still some talent here, but even though the Panthers put up a good fight at Villanova on Sunday before losing, the reality is they have lost two starters to injury, including the one guy they could least afford to lose in point guard Levance Fields. Not only is Ronald Ramon not a point guard, but if Ramon is running the offense, that means he isn't catching the ball on the wing. They're saying Fields might come back from his foot injury at the end of the season, but I doubt that will leave him enough time to take the Panthers deep into the NCAA tournament.

Oregon: SELL

The Ducks were close to being a Hold, but I figure they're as high as they're going to get after winning at Arizona. We knew coming into the year they'd have a hard time replacing Aaron Brooks, and boy have they ever. Not only has Tajuan Porter not made the transition to point guard, but he has turned in some truly horrendous shooting performances. (He's making 31.5 percent from behind the arc and has gone 2 for 18 the last three games).

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