Seth Davis's Weekly AP Ballot Rank Team 1. North Carolina 2. Memphis 3. Kansas 4. UCLA 5. Georgetown 6. Washington State 7. Duke 8. Texas A&M 9. Indiana 10. Tennessee 11. Marquette 12. Michigan State 13. Texas 14. Xavier 15. Butler 16. Dayton 17. Rhode Island 18. Pittsburgh 19. Vanderbilt 20. Wisconsin 21. Arizona 22. Louisville 23. Mississippi 24. Oregon 25. Stanford

The bottom line is, Texas routed a very good Tennessee team by 22 and won in Pauley Pavilion. That's giving them some heft on my ballot, but if they lose again this week it will be time to rethink this one.

Moving on to non-poll-related questions, here are a couple of queries regarding the team I've had plugged in at No. 1 since the start of the season:

From Torrey Tennant of Charlotte, N.C.: "I am a born and bred Tar Heel fan, but how can you be so sure that they will win the national title this year? I want to believe it, but there are so many other good teams out there this year."

And from Dixon in Richmond, Va.: "How big of an impact should Bobby Frasor's ACL tear have on North Carolina?"

First of all, you can never be sure of anything. (Right, Barack?) Right now I'm not seeing a clear number one by any means. What I'm seeing instead is a clearly defined top tier consisting of the first four teams on my ballot. Every time I see one of them play, I think, "Man, they look like they're gonna win it all." Then I see the next one and I think, "Man, I think they're gonna win it all."

The reason why I'm sticking with Carolina (until further notice) is that it has all the right pieces -- and they fit together beautifully. They've got a true point guard in Ty Lawson, a smooth scorer at the two spot in Wayne Ellington, a classic glue-guy upperclassman in Marcus Ginyard and a rugged center in Tyler Hansbrough. Overall, they have a lot of experience and a rotation that is solidified.

However, Mr. Dixon raises the potential red flag here. Bobby Frasor was a solid backup point guard who also had the ability to shift to the two. Since he's not coming back, UNC's primary vulnerability is clear. Lawson needs to play 36 minutes a game from here on out without getting hurt and/or worn down. If you watched the Heels almost lose at Clemson, you saw that this is a much, much different team when Lawson is on the bench. If you're a born and bred Tar Heel fan, that should worry you.

Keeping it at the top of the polls, Chip Sawyer from Memphis asks: "Why is everyone saying Memphis is going to go undefeated? Last year, the Tigers went into Knoxville and got blasted. This year, they pretty much have the same team and everyone is overlooking it like it's no problem. Seeing the trouble UNC had with Clemson, shouldn't Memphis be on high alert for UT as well as our conference?"

I think the most significant word you wrote there, Chip, is "Knoxville." This year, the Memphis-Tennessee game will be played in Memphis. Big difference. The Tigers' Jan. 26 game against Gonzaga is also at the Fed Ex Forum. (Mark Few has to be the world's biggest masochist.)

Aside from those games, it's all Conference USA, all the time. I find it laughable that John Calipari would agree Kansas and North Carolina have a better chance at going undefeated because they play in the Big 12 and ACC, respectively. It's not that Memphis isn't capable of losing in Conference USA (road games at Houston, UAB and Tulane will be good tests), but the Tigers will have a lot of easy games between those to keep themselves physically and emotionally fresh. That's why that Feb. 23 date against the Vols is looming as the biggest game of the regular season in college hoops.

Bill Mettee of Gaitherburg, Md., wants to know: "Is Georgetown's rebounding problem just a matter of the players needing to get after it more, or is there a bigger problem with the way they are 'schemed' by the coaches? I am concerned when they are out rebounded by Rutgers and American, but have a ton of height and athleticism."

It is a little surprising to see the Hoyas ranked 10th in the Big East in rebounding margin (+3.1), but there may be a pretty good explanation for that: They never miss! They're ranked first in the league in both field goal percentage and three-point percentage (not to mention in both field goal and three-point percentage defense). They're also fifth in the nation in offensive efficiency. Here's my favorite stat of all: Georgetown has 252 assists on 408 made field goals. That was 82 more assists than their opponents.

The larger problem for the Hoyas is their three-point shooting is suspect once they hit the road. In their two losses at Memphis and Pitt, the Hoyas shot a combined 6 for 34 from behind the arc. It's not just the low percentage that bothers me, it's the high number of attempts. As I've said before, the biggest difference between playing at home and on the road is that at home, you can fire up threes, but on the road you've got to take it to the cup. It was also disconcerting to see Pitt's guards slice their way to the basket so often with relative ease.

I still believe the Hoyas are a national championship-caliber team, but for most of the season I've considered them solidly on the first tier. After watching them struggle to beat UConn and then lose at Pitt, I'm officially relegating them to the top of the second tier.

Garth Hammer from New York wants to know: "You have been lukewarm on my Spartans all season. They are a bad second half meltdown versus UCLA from being undefeated and have some quality wins under their belt. What gives?"

Interesting how perceptions work. It's hard to make the case I've been lukewarm on Michigan State when I ranked them sixth last week, and even after they lost at a very bad Iowa team I only bumped them down to 12th. (They ended up 11th in this week's poll.) Yet, I can see why Garth would have that impression because I've taken a few shots at the Spartans. They're so highly regarded, the warts become noteworthy.

So here's my take. The Spartans can beat anyone, but in terms of winning a championship or reaching the Final Four, they (like a lot of teams) have a pretty slim margin for error. Drew Neitzel has not shot well (he's averaging 13.2 points on 40.7 percent three-point shooting, down from 18.1 and 41.2 percent last year), and though Goran Suton is more dependable you still don't know what you're going to get from the other big men from game to game. Given the problems the Spartans had on the road last year, Saturday's 43-36 loss at Iowa was not a good sign. Michigan State is capable of winning the Big Ten, but I don't see as much upside here as I see at Indiana, which has two players (Eric Gordon and D.J. White) who are better than anybody Michigan State has.

As I've said, though, when Raymar Morgan is playing to his potential -- when he is an All-Big Ten, if not an All-America, caliber of player -- the Spartans are lethal. That has been the case for most of the season. So let's say I'm a little hotter on Michigan State than lukewarm, but I'm not quite boiling over with enthusiasm just yet.

Finally, J.P. Edwards from Baltimore wants to know wassup with his Terps: "With a third March of no dancing in four years looming, is it possible Gary Williams' seat might actually get warm? And things don't look much better next year unless Gus Gilchrist has some kind of Joe Smith-type impact. I'm afraid another season on the Big Dance sideline next year might create a very unpleasant situation in Terpland."

First of all, while I agree an NCAA bid is looking like a longshot, it looked unlikely this time last season before the Terps found their stride in February and reached the second round. And I disagree that next year doesn't look promising. Besides Gilchrist coming in (he's good, but he ain't Joe Smith), remember the Terps are losing just two seniors and their first four players off the bench are freshmen.

And if things don't significantly improve next year? Well, I just find it hard to believe that Gary Williams -- the alum who returned in the wake of the Bob Wade fiasco, resurrected the program, brought home a national championship and led the way in building a new arena -- could ever be forced out of College Park.

It is, however, fair to say that Williams' assistants would be under the gun. The staff took a major hit after the NCAA title when Dave Dickerson left for Tulane and Jimmy Patsos left for Loyola. Since everyone knows Williams doesn't love recruiting, it's especially critical that his assistants supply him with talent. That aside, it's going to take a lot more than a couple of bad years to heat up Gary Williams' seat at Maryland.