How nonconference SOS will play a role down stretch

Florida has a weak nonconference schedule, but the Gators' SEC record should more than make up for it. AP

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I love reading bracket projections as much as the next hoops geek, but even the folks who do them would concede that it is still very early. With so much basketball left, we're a good three weeks from being able to see what will be revealed on Selection Sunday.

There is, however, one element that will mostly not change: the nonconference strength of schedule (SOS) rankings. That's because most teams have played all their nonconference games. And believe me when I tell you that a team's nonconference SOS is extremely important to members of the selection committee. With all those bubble teams' resumes looking so much alike, the committee is looking for any piece of differentiation it can find.

Even in January, these rankings (as compiled by Jerry Palm of CSTV) are pretty revealing. Some teams you thought had a good chance at getting a bid are actually worse off than you thought -- and vice versa. Here's a sneak peek at some potential bubble boys from the top and the bottom:

Looking weak

Arizona State (Nonconference SOS ranking: 319). You'd think a team ranked 24th in the AP Poll in the third week of January would be almost a shoo-in to reach the tournament, but eight of the Sun Devils' 14 wins have come against teams ranked lower than 200 in the RPI. At some point, ASU also needs to pick up a quality road win or two. Its only one thus far came Jan. 17 at California.

Florida (296). It's hard to fault Billy Donovan for putting together an easy schedule during this rebuilding season, but the Gators need to make hay during the SEC season to justify a bid. With a 5-1 record, including Sunday's rout over Vanderbilt, I'd say they're doing just that.

Stanford (274). The Cardinal managed to eke out a one-point win at Texas Tech, but other than that their toughest nonleague road game was against Siena -- and they lost. The good news for Stanford is the Pac-10 is strong enough that they'll have opportunities to impress the committee.

Notre Dame (271). The Irish played six nonleague games against teams ranked lower than 200 and three against teams ranked between 100-199. The good news is, they won all of them, and they also have a gem of a win over Kansas State. Notre Dame has five games remaining against Big East teams ranked lower than 100. If the Fighting Irish can win all of those and pick up another one somewhere along the line, that should get them into the tournament with room to spare.

Purdue (243). The Boilermakers' best nonconference win came against Louisville, but the Cardinals were still playing without David Padgett, Juan Palacios and Derrick Caracter -- and you better believe the committee takes that into account. That's why it was so important for Purdue to beat Wisconsin on Saturday. You just don't get many opportunities to have a top team come into your own gym. Purdue has three winnable road games left: at Illinois, Northwestern and Michigan. Given the Boilermakers' nonconference SOS ranking, they need to win at least two of those.

Looking strong

Gonzaga (8). The Zags should get credit for playing their usual murderers' row in November and December, but unfortunately they lost five of those games, including to Oklahoma and Texas Tech. On the flip side, their wins over UConn and Saint Joseph's are looking better every day. If they get out of the West Coast Conference with no more than two losses and reach the conference tournament championship game, they'll be worthy of an at-large bid.

Syracuse (14). Hard to believe we're talking about a Jim Boeheim team playing a tough schedule, but facts are facts. Even the loss at home to UMass doesn't hurt the Orange considering the Minutemen are No. 26 in the RPI. The main problem for Syracuse right now is its highest-quality win came at home against Saint Joseph's. The Orange need to win a game or two against the elites of the Big East or they'll be NIT-bound for the second-straight year.

Ohio State (15). The Buckeyes beat Syracuse in Madison Square Garden and Florida in Columbus. And how many of you realized how significant their win at Cleveland State was Dec. 18? This team will be on some bubble lists, but as of now the Buckeyes have no losses outside the top 100. If that is still the case in six weeks, they'll be in the clear.

South Alabama (48). I realize the chances of the Jaguars' getting an at-large bid (should they need one) are small. But besides jumping off to a 9-0 start in conference play, South Alabama beat fast-rising Mississippi State at home and lost at Vanderbilt and at Ole Miss by a combined six points (and the loss to Vandy was in double-overtime). South Alabama is currently ranked No. 28 in the RPI, but since Western Kentucky is the only other Sun Belt team in the top 100, you can expect the Jags' RPI ranking to plummet as we get closer to March.

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