Which teams to buy, sell, hold heading into NCAAs

Led by the emergence of sophomore center Hasheem Thabeet (left), UConn has won nine straight and has shown the toughness they once lacked. AP

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Greetings, Hoop Thinkers. For today's submission, I have resurrected my wildly popular Hoop Thoughts Stock Report to get you primed for the final stretch heading into March Madness. You know the drill: The mission is not to assess where teams are but to project where they are headed. Ratings have been assigned relative to a team's status as defined by record, ranking and buzz. So just because one team is rated a Buy and another a Sell, that doesn't mean the Buy team is better. But you knew that already.

Here, then, are my ratings for 20 teams. I have also included the rating I assigned each school in my first Stock Reporton Jan. 8. Happy shopping.

Arizona: SELL

Previous rating: Sell

I must say, the Wildcats held up through the start of the Pac-10 season better than I thought they would, mostly because freshman point guard Jerryd Bayless bounced back so quickly from an ankle injury. But now that sophomore guard Nic Wise has been lost to knee surgery, Arizona's already-thin bench has become nonexistent. Chase Budinger is in the midst of a shooting slump (16 for 51 in his last four games), which has led to three losses the last two weeks. Looking at the schedule, I could easily see Arizona going 2-4 down the stretch. That might not quite put them out of the tournament, but it would give them a low enough seed that they'd be hard-pressed to advance.

Butler: SELL

Previous rating: NR

If you haven't seen this team play yet, make the effort. Few squads play more rhythmic, efficient, team-oriented basketball than Butler, and though most of the love gets showered on the guard tandem of Mike Green and A.J. Graves, forwards Pete Campbell and Matt Howard are also having stellar seasons. Still, even the most ardent Butler fan would have to concede this is not the eighth-best team in the country. Even while making it this far with only two losses (both on the road) in the underrated Horizon League, Butler is barely out-rebounding opponents. I wouldn't be surprised if they win a game or two in the NCAA tournament, but the Elite Eight? Not gonna happen.

Connecticut: BUY

Previous rating: NR

Holy Hasheem, Batman! This team has gotten real good real fast. We always knew the Huskies had some talent, but they were so inexperienced and (gulp) soft that you had to wonder if they would ever figure it out -- especially after a loss at home to Providence on Jan. 17. The Huskies started to turn the corner by blowing out Marquette in their next game, but it was their 68-63 win at Indiana on Jan. 26 that truly galvanized this team. Playing without suspended guards Doug Wiggins and Jerome Dyson, UConn had to band together and outhustle its opponents to win. With Wiggins back, the Huskies haven't lost that mindset, which enabled them to overcome their doldrums and escape South Florida in overtime last weekend. And remember, Dyson comes back in a couple of weeks, and since he wasn't gone because of an injury, you should expect him to get up to speed real fast. Then, look out.

Duke: BUY

Previous rating: Sell

I was going to rate the Blue Devils a Hold, but after a stumble at Wake Forest on Sunday night, I've been convinced otherwise. There's nothing wrong with a flat conference road performance in mid-February, and this team has displayed more toughness (particularly on defense) than I had previously recognized. What's more, the Blue Devils get North Carolina at home in three weeks. If Duke can sweep the Tar Heels, it would put the Devils on the coveted Raleigh-Charlotte path to the Final Four.

Georgetown: SELL

Previous rating: Buy

Devout Hoop Thoughts readers won't be surprised at my continued skepticism of the Hoyas. After their loss at Syracuse last Saturday, the Hoyas dropped to 12th in the AP poll, but you could make a case that right now they are the third- or fourth-best team in the Big East. You have to respect a team's ability to win ugly, but the Hoyas' lack of scoring punch has caught up with them as they have lost two of their last three. The good news is that Jonathan Wallace, who has been in a horrendous shooting slump for most of the Big East season, finally broke out for 26 points on 9 for 10 shooting in the loss to the Orange. If he keeps that up, you may want to scoop this team up in early March, but right now this stock is not worth the price.

Indiana: BUY

Previous rating: Buy

Surprised, huh? Consider first that you may want to wait a few days before buying the Hoosiers because their stock is going to plummet in the next few days. With Kelvin Sampson likely out by the end of the week, this will feel like a program in turmoil -- but then again, you saw how the players responded against Michigan State last Saturday night. The reality is, almost regardless of whom Indiana plays, it will have two players (D.J. White and Eric Gordon) who are better than anyone on the opposing roster. And if Dan Dakich is named Sampson's interim replacement as expected, there's no reason he can't maintain some sense of continuity.

Kansas: BUY

Previous rating: Buy

The Jayhawks only have two losses and both are respectable: at Kansas State and at Texas. It's a little disappointing that Sherron Collins' nagging injuries have kept him from being a dominant player, but Mario Chalmers has become as close to a go-to scorer as KU has had the last three years and the Jayhawks' quartet of bigs is as good as any frontline group in the country. The only thing this program has lacked in the NCAA tournament the last couple of years is luck. With a No. 1 seed virtually assured, I think the road ahead will hold plenty of good fortune.

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