Huge games bubble teams must win to get to Dance

Arizona State needs some big performances from leading scorer James Harden to get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. Nick Doan/Icon SMI

MAILBAG Seth Davis will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his Hoop Thoughts column. Your name: Your e-mail address: Your home town: Enter your question:

Win your way in.

That is my simple, four-word advice for all the bubble teams as they head into the final two weeks of the regular season. You can't backtrack your way into the NCAA tournament, or get into the field by avoiding bad losses. You've got to shake up your profile by knocking off a team that is either ranked in the top 25 of the RPI or appears to be safely in the field of 65. If you can do it on the road, all the better.

Unfortunately the opportunities for bubble teams to score a ticket-punching win are few and far between. I scoured the schedules and managed to come up with 11 games that could drastically alter the dynamic of the bubble picture. If the bubble teams fail to win the games I've listed, that won't necessarily knock them out. But any time you can make the committee's decision a little easier, it's wise to take advantage.

Here, then, are the potential ticket punchers to watch for the next two weeks. All rankings are based on RPI, not the AP poll:

Feb. 28, UCLA at Arizona State. For a team that is supposedly on the bubble, the Sun Devils are actually in excellent shape. Who among the bubble boys can say they have four wins against top 25 teams, including a nonconference thrashing of No.9 Xavier? Even so, ASU is 5-7 in its last 12 games, so a win over the No. 4 Bruins would pretty much lock up a bid. At the very least, if they lose this one, they'll need to beat USC at home on Saturday. If, on the other hand, they get swept at home by both of the L.A. schools, they will be in a precarious spot.

March 1, West Virginia at UConn. The Mountaineers are a great example of why you have to look at a team's conference schedule and not just its record. West Virginia is 8-6 in the Big East, but it only has two wins (both at home) over teams ranked in the top 50 of the RPI. The Mountaineers' nonconference strength of schedule ranking is 123. So you can see how huge a win on the road against the No. 12 Huskies would be. Otherwise, West Virginia's following game at Pitt could be its last chance to firm up its at-large bid.

March 1, Pittsburgh at Syracuse. I have been especially skeptical about the Orange's NCAA chances because I could see how difficult their closing stretch was -- and I wasn't including their Feb. 13 game at South Florida, which they lost. If Syracuse can't beat Pitt at home, it will have to win its last two at Seton Hall and at home against Marquette just to remain on the bubble.

March 1, Mississippi State at Florida. The Gators are also hosting Tennessee on March 5, but it's hard to imagine them making the NCAA tournament if they can't beat Mississippi State at home. Billy Donovan understandably put together a weak nonconference schedule (national ranking: 292), but that put a larger onus on Florida to do well in the SEC. So far, it hasn't measured up. The Gators also end the regular season in Rupp Arena. They'll have to win two of those three to be back in the picture.

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