I'd like to believe the Davidson Wildcats have a little more of that George Mason magic left in 'em, but there is a cold reality staring them in the face right now: They're playing Wisconsin, not Georgetown. Yes, the Hoyas had more future NBA players, but Wisconsin has toughness, experience and far more efficiency at both ends of the floor. Wisconsin is also not nearly as prone to committing turnovers as Georgetown, and the Badgers will not allow the kind of dribble penetration that led to Davidson's free-throw advantage over the Hoyas. The only question about Wisconsin is its long-range shooting, but Trevon Hughes and Michael Flowers were in excellent form last week. Flowers will, no doubt, be assigned the difficult task of defending Stephen Curry, but while nobody can completely stop Curry from getting his points, that matchup favors the Badgers.

OK, so Texas has nobody who can match up inside with the Lopez twins. Who does? The Longhorns do have a pair of guards who are as explosive and dynamic as any tandem in the country. The only times Texas has been vulnerable this year are when D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams have both had an off shooting night. Even when just one isn't playing well offensively, the Longhorns have adjusted accordingly. (When they beat Kansas, for example, Augustin had 10 points on 1-for-13 shooting.) If the Longhorns can at least hold their own on the boards -- Damian James, who had 16 rebounds in the second-round win over Miami, is critical in this regard -- then the remaining question is whether they can force enough turnovers to get them the transition opportunities they'll need. Stanford point guard Mitch Johnson is stingy (16 assists, one turnover vs. Marquette), but unless the Cardinal's guards can make some jump shots to open up the paint, they'll have a hard time outscoring a potent team. In other words, these teams are very evenly matched. So let's give an edge to the one who's playing a de facto home game in Houston.

If there is one attribute a team needs to win a national championship, it is this: the ability to win games in the 80s as well as the 60s. Kansas exemplifies that ability better than any other team remaining. That is largely because its quartet of perimeter players (Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, Brandon Rush, Sherron Collins) are just as good, if not better, on defense as they are at pouring in points. Villanova's perimeter has near-comparable talent, but not nearly the toughness and experience as KU's guys. And even if 'Nova can play the Jayhawks to a draw on the perimeter, the Wildcats will be woefully overmatched inside.

The Spartans seem to have gotten their turnover problems under control the past two weeks, but this is a different kind of test. No team in America swarms the ball as relentlessly as Memphis does, and the Tigers can send waves of athletes at the Spartans in an effort to turn up the tempo. If Michigan State was totally committed to slowing things down, it might create an advantage, but the Spartans have shown too much ability to score in transition to ease up now. Still, this team has rediscovered its Izzo-esque toughness, so two things have to happen for Michigan State to win. The first is Memphis needs to miss its free throws. This, we know, is a certainty. Witness the Tigers' horrid (even by their standards) 15-for-32 effort from the stripe against Mississippi State. The second is that Memphis' big men, especially Joey Dorsey, get into foul trouble. This is far less certain considering Michigan State's frontcourt has been its primary weakness all season. The Spartans will fight hard, but in the end they won't be quite strong enough to get the job done.