20 Questions, Midnight Madness edition (cont.) |
Kentucky: How much drama will we see in Lexington? (And I don't mean the Ashley Judd kind.) The Wildcats had no shortage of drama last season, from the debacle against Gardener Webb to Alex Legion's decision to transfer to the late surge that produced a 12-4 record in the SEC, only to be upended by the season-ending foot injury to freshman forward Patrick Patterson at the end of February. Now they need a little more even keel. Patterson appears to be fully healthy, as does 6-4 junior guard Jodie Meeks, who had offseason surgery to repair a sports hernia. That's a good start. Position wise, the biggest question is point guard. UK lost three very good guards in Joe Crawford and Ramel Bradley, who graduated, and 6-6 junior Derrick Jasper, who transferred to UNLV. I was truly shocked at Jasper's decision to leave because coach Billy Gillispie had consistently said Jasper was the team's most important player. Right now there are three possibilities for floor leader: 6-2 junior Michael Porter, who averaged just 15.4 minutes last season; 6-6 freshman DeAndre Liggins, who played forward much of his high-school career and 6-6 juco transfer Kevin Galloway. The ideal scenario would be for Galloway to emerge as the guy. Louisville: Do the Cardinals have the character to win it all? Louisville's character problem last year was primarily a Caracter problem -- as in Derrick Caracter, the 6-9 power forward whose immaturity created a constant distraction while Rick Pitino kept suspending and reinstating him for various reasons. After the season ended, Pitino essentially forced Caracter out of the program, a move that was easier to do knowing that 6-8 freshman forward Samardo Samuels, arguably Pitino's best recruit at Louisville, was on his way. Louisville is flush with talent, but still a little low on some intangibles. Junior point guard Edgar Sosa, who had a terrific freshman year but spent much of last season in Pitino's doghouse for poor defense, needs to take a big step forward. Earl Clark, a 6-9 junior, probably has the most upside of any player on the Cardinals' roster, but he has to play with more consistency. Senior forward Terrence Williams, who injured his knee this week and will be out four to six weeks, is a terrific passer but he sometimes lacks good shot selection. If the Cardinals' mental toughness and maturity can rise to match their physical talent, I expect to see them in Detroit in March. Marquette: How small can small ball get? It seems like every year in October, we're talking about Marquette's big problem -- or more accurately, its bigs problem. This year that problem is even, uh, bigger. The Golden Eagles' two starting forwards from last season, Ousmane Barro and Dan Fitzgerald, have graduated. The only remaining player taller than 6-8 is a freshman, Chris Otule, a 6-10 center who is considered a long-term project. The Eagles' most accomplished forward is Lazar Hayward, a 6-6 swingman who specializes in making three-pointers (he converted a team-best 45.1 percent from behind the line last year). Of course, Marquette will again boast the very formidable guard trio of Dominic James, Jerel McNeal and Wes Matthews, and that alone should make this team competitive in the Big East. McNeal especially had a great year last season, when he averaged 23 points and 6.1 rebounds over Marquette's final six games. As much as I respect those three guards, unless someone else gives Marquette a strong post presence, it will be hard for this team to play deep into the NCAA tournament. Memphis: Do the Tigers have another Rose ready to bloom? It's not easy replacing the NBA's No. 1-overall draft pick (Derrick Rose), not to mention two other second-round picks (Chris Douglas-Roberts, Joey Dorsey) who formed the nucleus of an NCAA runner-up. But that task got a little easier when John Calipari received a commitment from freshman Tyreke Evans, a 6-6 scoring machine from Philadelphia who was a two-time Parade All-America. Evans' decision to come to Memphis will make this feel less like a rebuilding year, but because he is not a point guard, and because he won't be playing alongside the caliber of players that Rose did, it's unlikely he'll have the same impact Rose did. It's unclear who will take over Rose's position at the point. The most obvious candidate might be Willie Kemp, the 6-2 junior whom Rose relegated to the bench after Kemp started as a freshman. Calipari has also said that senior guard Antonio Anderson might assume those duties. (Not a bad thought considering Anderson led Conference USA in assist-to-turnover ratio last year.) Then there's C.J. Henry, the 22-year-old former minor league baseball player who originally signed to play basketball for Kansas out of high school. The bottom line is you don't replace someone like Derrick Rose easily, but Memphis will have no choice but to try. Michigan State: Will the Spartans finally unleash their need for speed? For the last two years, Tom Izzo has promised his team would get back to the running style that defined his Final Four squads, yet somehow that hasn't happened. That is partly because the offense was centered around combo guard Drew Neitzel, who was more inclined to get his points in the half-court offense than lead a fast break like Mateen Cleaves. As good as Neitzel was, I think you could make a case that this team will be more effective with 6-foot sophomore Kalin Lucas running the point full time. Izzo says Lucas, with the ball, is the fastest player he has ever coached. Now it's time for Izzo to set him free. Michigan State has plenty of athletic wings to keep pace, and in 6-8 freshman forward Delvon Roe, Izzo has recruited the type of tough, aggressive rebounder this team has lacked recently. If this team can keep the running game going, there's no telling how far ahead of the Big Ten pack it can go. North Carolina: Have the Heels fixed their defensive problems? Finding something to question on this team is truly picking at nits, but it is worth noting that teams shot 42.6 percent from the floor against North Carolina last season. Kansas sank 53.1 percent of its shots in its win over UNC at the Final Four. The problem for North Carolina wasn't just an inability to stop dribble penetration. It was also the absence of an intimidating shot blocker to erase the mistakes of the perimeter defenders. From a personnel standpoint, the Heels are in a worse situation than they were last year on both fronts. Their best overall defender, 6-5 senior swingman Marcus Ginyard, will miss the next eight weeks because of a stress fracture in his left foot. Alex Stepheson, a 6-9 junior forward who provided some necessary inside muscle, transferred to USC. Roy Williams' freshman class includes two talented big men in Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller, but both are beanpole-thin. Of course, North Carolina has the best big man in the country in Tyler Hansbrough, and this team is probably going to lead the country in scoring. But at some point you have to shut down offenses in the half court. The Heels need to improve on that front to win it all. Notre Dame: What new three-point line? Few teams in America put the three-point line to better use last season than Notre Dame. The team's second-leading scorer, Kyle McAlarney, made a ridiculous 44.1 percent from behind the arc, and as a team the Irish was ranked seventh in three-point percentage (40.5 percent) and 35th in threes made per game (8.3). This year, the line has been officially moved back a foot to the distance of 20-feet-9-inches. If that mitigates Notre Dame's advantage, it could be a problem. It's doubtful the new line will affect McAlarney. A majority of his attempts last season probably came from at least that far. The team's other two top returning three-point shooters, however, are both forwards -- 6-7 senior Ryan Ayers (45.1 percent) and 6-10 senior Luke Zeller (38.1 percent) -- who don't have that same kind of range. It would also help if junior point guard Tory Jackson could improve on his 30.2 percent shooting from behind the arc. We all know Luke Harangody is going to receive plenty of attention from opposing defenses down low. If the Irish can make teams pay for overplaying the 'Gody even with the deeper line, they'll be awfully hard to beat. Oklahoma: What was Blake Griffin thinking? It is unconventional, to say the least, for a player to turn down the chance to be a lottery pick and return to school. So, add one more reason to the list of reasons Griffin, a big, strong and active 6-10 sophomore, is so special. Besides averaging 14.7 points and 9.1 rebounds as a freshman (including 20.3 and 14.7 in his last seven games), Griffin showed impressive toughness when he missed just one game after each of his two knee injuries last year. He is a gym rat and self-starter who has a long and lucrative pro career ahead of him. So, why did he come back to Norman? He wanted to get better to improve his draft status and prepare himself for life in the pros. That shows some savvy long-term thinking. He also understood Oklahoma has a chance to have a very good team. The Sooners are returning three starters from the unit that reached the second round of the NCAA tournament, and they have added freshman guard Willie Warren, a McDonald's High School All-America who can light up a scoreboard in a hurry. If the Sooners have a great year and Griffin is drafted even higher next spring (possibly as high as No. 1), then his decision to stay in school will look pretty thoughtful indeed. Pittsburgh: Who will make threes? With DeJuan Blair, Tyrell Biggs and Sam Young, the Panthers are as good up front as any other team in the country. In Levance Fields, they have as tough a point guard as you'll find anywhere. But they lost three very good outside shooters off of last year's team in Keith Benjamin, Ronald Ramon and Mike Cook, who together sank 56 percent of the team's three-pointers. (And keep in mind Cook only played 11 games before blowing out his knee.) Pitt's dearth of long-range shooters could be an especially glaring deficiency with the new three-point line. Right now, Jamie Dixon will be looking to three possibilities to fill that role: Brad Wanamaker, a 6-4 sophomore who averaged 2.2 points as a freshman; Ashton Gibbs, a 6-2 freshman from New Jersey; and Jermaine Dixon, a 6-3 transfer from Tallahassee Junior College. Dixon, it should be noted, is the younger brother of my all-time favorite college player, the former Maryland guard Juan Dixon, but until one of those three proves he can make shots, this will remain a open question, dialed in from long-distance.
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