New three-point line hasn't had a big impact, more thoughts

Like most sharpshooters, Davidson's Stephen Curry hasn't seen a noticeable drop in his three-point percentage this season. Getty Images

The decision of the men's basketball rules committee to move the three-point line back one foot, from 19-9 to 20-9, generated plenty of discussion this summer and fall. As the 2008-09 season has tipped off, the longer shot has been an irresistible storyline. How much of a difference would the new line have? Will it change the way teams play?

Well, we now have some actual games to provide answers to those questions. Turns out, all the talk has been much ado about not much.

Players have made 33.9 percent of their three-point attempts so far this season. That is down just 1.2 percent from last season, and it is down 0.9 percent from the average of the previous five seasons. While that change is statistically significant, it hardly leads one to conclude that a seismic shift has taken place. Since defenses are usually ahead of offenses this time of year, we can assume the three-point percentages will improve slightly as the season goes on.

The more salient number to check is the average number of three-pointers being attempted per game. If teams were really concerned about the new line, they would shoot it less frequently. Yet, while the 37.6 attempts per game this season is 0.5 fewer than last year's clip, it is actually higher than the 37.2 average from the previous five years combined.

Here's how the numbers shake out:

Three-point percentage Season 3FG% 3FGM 3FGA 2008-09 33.9 12.8 37.6 2007-08 35.1 13.4 38.1 2006-07 34.9 13.2 37.7 2005-06 34.9 12.9 36.8 2004-05 34.7 12.7 36.7 2003-04 34.6 12.6 36.5

This lack of a major shift should surprise no one. When the rules committee experimented with the three-point line in early season games over the last several years, it found that teams' percentages dropped by 1.4 percent. Teams did attempt 2.9 fewer threes per game in the experimental setting, so you might expect that category to come down in the weeks ahead.

Keep in mind that part of the rationale for moving the line back was to expand the spacing on the court. That change is harder to gauge since it's basically aesthetic. And, I'm not saying that the numbers thus far mean that the rules committee made a mistake in moving the line back.

But the early evidence clearly indicates that those who argued that the longer three-point shot would make a big difference were probably wrong. Let's check the numbers again in a few months for a final verdict.

Calling all e-mailers

You think it was tough following John Wooden at UCLA? Try following Grant Wahl at the SI.com college hoops mailbag.

Sadly for us, our resident colleague/soccer maven/hoops savant/movie enthusiast/'Bag man is taking a sabbatical this season. That has left me, well, holding the bag. So beginning next week, I'll be picking up Grant's electronic responsibilities in addressing the (full-court) pressing issues on your minds.

One of the ways in which Grant made his mailbag so entertaining was the way he engaged the readers with different challenges, queries and parlor games. So I've got one to start us off. We sportswriter types are always comparing current players to former ones, yet the unwritten rule seems to dictate that both players in the comparison must be of the same race. I'd like you all to come up with some pairings of guys whose games are similar even though they're different races. For example, in my scouting report on Duke for SI's college hoops preview issue, I compared Kyle Singler (white guy) with Shane Battier (black guy). Likewise, during the Boston College-St. John's game last week, ESPN's Sean McDonough said that Eagles forward Joe Trapani (who is white) reminded him of former BC forward Jared Dudley (who is black). (You don't have to make your comparisons between players from the same school.) When I get enough good suggestions, I'll include them in a future 'Bag.

I look forward to our correspondence, but I warn you, I've got young kids at home, so the only movie reviews I can offer are about Kung Fu Panda and The Backyardigans.