Ten sophomores ready to break out

After a productive summer, Duke's Nolan Smith took Greg Paulus' spot as the Blue Devils' starting point guard. Getty Images Seth Davis's Mailbag Seth Davis will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his Hoop Thoughts column. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

Feeling a little sophomoric? You've come to the right place.

That's right, Hoop Thinkers, it's time to unveil the results of my annual search for this season's breakout sophomores. I have been conducting this little exercise for several years now in deference to the conventional wisdom that a basketball player usually makes the biggest improvement of his life between his freshman and sophomore years of college.

The reasons are threefold. First, many freshmen come to college without having ever participated in a real strength and conditioning program. After a full year, their bodies usually undergo drastic change. Second, it often takes at least a full season for a player to get accustomed to the speed of the college game and the size of the opposing players. Finally, many times freshmen find their minutes are limited because a senior plays their position. Once the senior leaves, they seize the opportunity to break out.

It was especially difficult picking out 10 players this year because so many freshmen left school last spring to go to the NBA. In fact, 12 of the top 16 players in the class of 2007 left school after just one year. What's more, I again eliminated a slew of players who had dominant seasons as freshmen and are therefore too obvious to be featured here. They are: Nick Calathes, Florida; Jonny Flynn, Syracuse; Blake Griffin, Oklahoma; James Harden, Arizona State; Robbie Hummel and E'Twaun Moore, Purdue; and Patrick Patterson, Kentucky.

Keep in mind that the list that follows is not what I would call the 10 best sophomores in America. They are simply 10 guys who started off a little slowly but who, despite their relative youth, are now ready to step to the head of the class. Remember where you heard about 'em first.

(Incidentally, I have also revisited the list of 10 players I chose last year to see how prescient I was. I gotta say, the picks held up pretty well.)

Cole Aldrich, 6-11 center, Kansas

Fr: 8.3 mpg, 2.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg
Soph: 27.6 mpg, 15.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg

Skinny: This is a perfect example of the type of player this exercise should spotlight. Aldrich's numbers were paltry last year primarily because he was playing behind Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun and Darnell Jackson. Almost anywhere else, this former McDonald's All-American would have been the featured post man. When he did get in games, Aldrich often looked tentative. He showed his potential when he had eight points and four blocks in the Jayhawks' win over North Carolina at the Final Four. Now, Aldrich is strong, confident and playing like he knows he's the man.

Austin Daye, 6-10 forward, Gonzaga

Fr: 18.5 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg
Soph: 24.8 mpg, 14.5 ppg, 9.0 rpg

Skinny: At 190 pounds, Daye still looks like he needs to run around in the shower to get wet. And you probably won't see a huge jump in his numbers because the Zags are so well-balanced on offense. But as good as the other players are, Daye is the one guy on this team who possesses NBA lottery-type talent. (Not saying that will happen this year. Not saying it won't, either.) He certainly has the full offensive arsenal: three-point range, the requisite athleticism to finish around the rim and excellent passing ability in traffic. Daye might not end up as Gonzaga's leading scorer, but as the season wears on, I expect this team will look to him to take big shots when the Zags need it most.

LaceDarius Dunn, 6-4 guard, Baylor

Fr: 22.0 mpg, 13.6 ppg, 0.9 steals
Soph: 28.3 mpg, 17.1 ppg, 2.0 steals

Skinny: I don't know that Dunn will be a demonstrably different player than he was last season, but with the Bears on the ascent I expect he'll get a lot more notoriety. You won't find a stroke much purer than Dunn's. He hung 38 points on Texas Tech as a freshman and scored 27 in last week's big win over Arizona State. Like a lot of freshmen, Dunn looked lost (or more accurately, uninterested) on defense last season, but Baylor coach Scott Drew loves the spark he provides off the bench. After starting Dunn for the first three games this season, Drew moved him back to his role as a reserve. Yet, Dunn remains Baylor's leading scorer and you can be sure he'll be on the court at the end of close games.

Gary Johnson, 6-7 forward, Texas

Fr: 16.7 mpg, 5.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 56.9 FT%
Soph: 23.7 mpg, 10.8 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 78.9 FT%

Skinny: During the summer before Johnson's freshman year, he was diagnosed with a heart ailment, and he wasn't cleared to play until January. Then suffered a broken nose and later injured his ankle in the Big 12 tournament. Besides that, it was smooth sailing. Now, Johnson is finally healthy and has a full summer of conditioning behind him, he is demonstrating that he has the strength and skills to be an elite post player in the Big 12. Note especially the way his free-throw percentage has spiked; that's the sign of a player who has worked hard to get better. Coach Rick Barnes prefers to bring Johnson off the bench to spell his starting center Dexter Pittman, but Johnson is the team's second-leading rebounder and third-leading scorer.

Kalin Lucas, 6-foot, G, Michigan State

Fr: 25.1 mpg, 10.3 ppg, 3.8 apg
Soph: 31.2 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 6.2 apg

Skinny: I realize the Spartans are off to a shaky start, and Lucas's numbers are not hugely different than they were last season. But just watch. Clearly, Lucas and the rest of this team will have to adjust to losing Drew Neitzel, who was the focal point of the offense the last two years. And it doesn't help that Spartans starting center Goran Suton is out with a knee injury. Lucas, however, still has more than five times as many assists as he does turnovers, and as he grows more comfortable running the offense full time, I expect his shot selection will improve, thereby elevating his shooting percentages. (Through five games, he is shooting 38 percent from the floor and 20 percent from three). The bottom line is Lucas is better able to get easy baskets both for himself and his teammates than Neitzel was. That will eventually lift Michigan State to the Big Ten title.

Nolan Smith, 6-2 guard, Duke

Fr: 14.7 mpg, 5.9 ppg, 1.3 apg, 0.5 steals
Soph: 22.6 mpg, 12.4 ppg, 2.1 apg, 1.4 steals

Skinny: Players usually make this list because a senior who was starting in front of them graduated. This is an unusual case of a sophomore actually taking away the starting spot from an incumbent senior. Smith was able to supplant Greg Paulus in Duke's starting lineup largely because of his superior ability to pressure the ball. Though he isn't as adept as Paulus at running the half-court offense (through the Blue Devils' first seven games, he had just 15 assists to go with 15 turnovers), Smith is enough of an offensive threat that defenses can't leave him alone. If he's able to take that next step as a floor general, Duke will be truly dangerous.

Corey Stokes, 6-5 guard, Villanova

Fr: 18.3 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 29.6 3FG%
Soph: 27.5 mpg, 11.2 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 44.1 3FG%

Skinny: I watched Stokes play several times when he was in high school, and I was quite surprised his three-point shooting percentage was so poor last season. You can chalk that up to freshman-itis. Stokes had a hard time adjusting to the intensity and speed of the college game, but when things started to click for him toward the end of last season the Wildcats took off. Stokes averaged 12 points over Villanova's last 12 games, he won a starting spot in the Big East tournament and he scored 20 in the Wildcats' NCAA second-round win over Siena. As you can see, Stokes has kept up his hot shooting this year. If he keeps progressing he will be a big-time scorer in a big-time league.

Jeff Teague, 6-2 guard, Wake Forest

Fr: 29.7 mpg, 13.9 ppg, 2.5 apg, 43.4 FG%, 39.5 3FG%
Soph: 28.6 mpg, 22.4 ppg, 4.4 apg, 49.4 FG%, 57.1 3FG%

Skinny: I'm guessing even Wake coach Dino Gaudio is amazed at how much Teague has improved upon what was already a pretty impressive freshman season. Teague earned his way into the starting lineup last season primarily on the basis of his outside shooting. He has become a more complete player, yet he has still drastically increased his shooting percentages. Teague already has nearly half the number of assists he totaled all of last year. During Sunday night's big win over Baylor, Teague had an off night shooting (1-for-10 from the floor), so he put the ball on the deck and repeatedly drove to the rim, which resulted in 14 free-throw attempts (he made 12). It certainly helps that Wake Forest has a much stronger inside game than it had last year, but don't discount the importance of his increased maturity and confidence. That's what is supposed to happen to a kid when he goes away to college.

Chris Wright, 6-1 guard, Georgetown

Fr: 17.3 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 2.1 apg, 1.36-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio
Soph: 35.0 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 4.5 apg, 2.57-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio

Skinny: A former McDonald's All-American, Wright would have been more of a factor last season if he hadn't missed 16 games because of severely sprained ankle. Even so, he would have been a backup to Jonathan Wallace, the four-year starter for the Hoyas. Now, with Wallace gone and Wright healthy, the youngster has the stage to himself. He needs to improve his long-range shooting (he's making just 29.4 percent from three), and it will be a while before he orchestrates Georgetown's Princeton-style offense with the same efficiency Wallace did. But Wright, who scored 18 points in last week's loss to Tennessee, has much more talent than Wallace, and by this time next year he could be the best point guard in the Big East.

Chris Wright, 6-8 forward, Dayton

Fr: 20.6 mpg, 10.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg
Soph: 28.2 mpg, 13.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg

Skinny: Yes, there's room in this column for two Chris Wrights. This version was one of the most heralded recruits in Dayton history, and it appeared he would live up to that hype when he had 22 points and 13 rebounds in a season-opening win over East Tennessee State. Alas, Wright broke his ankle in December and missed the last two months of the season. Wright is a strong, powerful, athletic player who can really score around the goal and is a great finisher on the break. If he figures out how to extend his shooting range (he was 3-for-11 from three in the Flyers' first six games), he'll be a pro for sure.