Hoop thoughts (cont.)

And for you Hoops Junkies ...

Seth Davis's Mailbag Seth Davis will periodically answer questions from SI.com users in his Hoop Thoughts column. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

As I said, there are many games that are being played during this time of year that will have some major ramifications when the men's basketball committee does its work three months from now. Here are 10 teams that, for better or worse, have already significantly helped and hurt their chances of making the NCAA tournament:

For better....

Maryland (6-2). I still think the Terps are going to struggle in the ACC, but if they're on the bubble going into selection weekend, those wins over Michigan State and Michigan are going to help -- especially considering the Wolverines helped their own case with wins over UCLA and Duke.

Michigan (6-2). The Wolverines are still a work in progress, but those two triumphs over UCLA and Duke are of such high quality that I think they could conceivably get an at-large bid ahead of a team that finishes above them in the Big Ten standings.

Missouri (7-1). In the Big 12, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas and Baylor are looking like NCAA tournament teams, but the Tigers bought themselves a little house money with their hot start, which included wins over a pair of Pac 10 teams in USC (in Puerto Rico) and California (at home).

Ohio State (5-0). When going through my bubble profiles in March, I always look for how many wins a school has against teams that are bound for the NCAA tournament. Well, the Buckeyes got two last week over top-25 teams Miami and Notre Dame. Nicely done.

St. Mary's (6-1). The Gaels' 81-75 win over Providence on Nov. 30 is a great example of a game that is far more important than meets the eye. What kind of case would St. Mary's have for an at-large bid if they couldn't beat a bottom-tier team from the Big East in a virtual home game? (It was played in Anaheim.) The Gaels further buttressed their case last Thursday by winning a road game against another at-large-worthy mid-major, Kent State.

And for worse...

Saint Joseph's (3-4). The Hawks got an at-large last year after losing to Temple in the A-10 tournament final, but their 3-4 start, including losses to potential bubble boys Alabama and Creighton, make a conference championship virtually mandatory.

Southern Illinois (3-4). The Salukis could have helped themselves enormously if they could have upset Duke or UCLA, but those losses are survivable. Losing at Western Kentucky and then at home to Charlotte will be harder to overcome.

UAB (5-3). The Blazers are the last team besides Memphis from Conference USA to earn an at-large bid, but even though they squeaked by Arizona in Tucson in the NIT Tip-Off Classic, they blew a golden opportunity by falling to Oklahoma and Boston College in Madison Square Garden. Then they lost on Saturday at Cincinnati, which will probably have a hard time itself getting a bid out of the Big East.

UNLV (7-2). The Rebels' record looks pretty good, but after losing at home to California (by 18 points) and Cincinnati, they'll need to hope those teams play well in their respective conferences so those losses don't look so bad in March.

Virginia Tech (5-3). Just call 'em the Heartbreak Hokies. Wins over Xavier and Wisconsin would have really helped Virginia Tech's at-large profile, but the Hokies lost both games on buzzer beaters. Their other loss was to Seton Hall by four points. Yes, they were close, but a loss is a loss -- and those three hurt real bad.

Other Hoop Thoughts

• UCLA and Michigan State will get plenty better, folks, trust me. UCLA is going to get increased production out of its freshmen (someone let me know when the real Jrue Holiday shows up in Westwood). And the Spartans will get better when (or should I say if) Goran Suton and Delvon Roe get healthy.

• I saw that Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie took some heat for deciding not to suspend freshman guard DeAndre Liggins for refusing to go into the game when Gillispie waved him in during the second half of the Wildcats' win over Kansas State in Las Vegas. I'm all for a coach running a tight ship, but this is one case where I'm willing to give a kid the benefit of the doubt. It's hard sometimes for us to imagine how much pressure is on these youngsters, and Liggins obviously made a bad decision. I have no problem with a coach giving him a mulligan -- but he only gets one. Liggins has to realize that he's a marked man now. Hopefully he has learned his lesson and this was a onetime slipup.

• Let me also say this about Kentucky: This team clearly has limited talent and experience (especially in the backcourt), but I promise you the Cats will compete hard and get better. I'm not sure they're good enough to get to the tournament, but they'll scrap to get there.

• Do you all realize what a good college basketball player Paul Harris has become? I'm sure the folks in Syracuse do.

• Maybe Washington junior forward Quincy Pondexter should get some video of Paul Harris. If Pondexter could think of himself as a blue-collar workhorse instead of a guy who got a ton of hype in high school, he would see his stats rise big-time.

• Pittsburgh guard Jermaine Dixon may not be as good an offensive player as his older brother Juan, but he is absolutely sublime on the defensive end. Juan was great at getting into the passing lanes and making steals off the ball, but Jermaine is great both on and off the ball. Vintage glue guy.

• It will be fun fodder in late February discussing whether the Big East will get nine teams into the NCAA tournament, but this is a serious question for the Selection Committee. That's because the bracketing rules dictate that teams from the same conference cannot meet until a regional final. The exception is when a team gets more than eight teams, which has never happened. The NCAA's Greg Shaheen, who oversees the selection process, told me that when the committee puts the media through their mock brackets this year, the NCAA is going to make sure the field includes nine Big East teams so they can practice going through the scenarios. It is a tricky process.

• There's no need to overreact to Duke's loss at Michigan, but it is worth noting that even though we think of the Blue Devils as a great three-point shooting team, they do not have a single player making over 38 percent from behind the arc this season. Check out these numbers: Kyle Singler, 29.5 percent; Jon Scheyer, 30.3 percent; Nolan Smith, 37.9 percent; Gerald Henderson, 36.0 percent; Greg Paulus, 29.6 percent.

• You want to have some fun? Watch Wake Forest as much as you can this season. The Demon Deacons are undefeated and ranked 11th even without Ish Smith, their primary point guard, at full health. If they don't lose anybody -- and I don't think they will -- the Deacs will be a preseason top-five team next year.

• Sure, Illinois State is 8-0, but have you seen their schedule? Wake me when they play somebody.

• If I had waited just one more week to compile my breakout sophs list, I would have definitely included Illinois forward Mike Davis and Ohio State guard Evan Turner. Serves me right for trying to be so clairvoyant.

• I usually don't plug events, but if you get a chance, check out the Maggie Dixon Classic at Madison Square Garden on Dec. 14. You'll see good women's hoops (UConn vs. Penn State and Rutgers vs. Army) and be supporting a good cause in the C.A.R.E Foundation, which raises money and awareness for heart disease. The event's namesake was the Army women's coach and sister of Pitt men's coach Jamie Dixon. She was a wonderful woman who died way, way too young.

• Baylor's win at Washington State was more impressive than you realize. I know the Cougars lost Kyle Weaver and Derrick Lowe from last year's team (not to mention Robbie "I Need More" Cowgill), but they are still a veteran, tough team that knows how to impose its style. That Baylor could play slowball in Pullman and still prevail tells me the Bears' halfcourt offense is better than advertised.

• You need a really, really good point guard to get to the Final Four, and the reality is, Louisville doesn't have one.

• I was surprised to see so many empty seats for Oklahoma's home game against USC last week. I realize Norman is football country, but how often do you have the number one pick in the NBA draft in your program?

• You gotta read Artie Lange's Too Fat to Fish.

• I'm actually a little worried North Carolina could make a mockery of the Final Four.

• When I was a senior at Duke, I wrote a paper for my journalism class on the question of whether freshmen should be eligible to play college sports. (Yes, I was a geek even then.) I wanted to use a young athlete to illustrate this question, so I drove to Hillside High in Durham to interview Rodney Rogers, who was in the midst of his senior season en route to Wake Forest. The idea of that strapping, strong, healthy, soft-spoken young man now being paralyzed from the shoulders down is just too awful to contemplate.

• I've noticed that the officials seem to be getting more lenient when it comes to calling technical fouls on players who hang on the rim after a dunk. I say this is a good thing. The vast majority of the time, the players seem to be genuinely trying to make sure they're not going to hurt themselves or anyone who happens to be underneath them when they let go. They're moving pretty fast on many of these dunks, so the potential for injury is considerable. Unless a guy is blatantly showboating up there, I think the refs should err on the side of letting 'em hang.

• Boston College is a better team when it's getting balanced offense, not just from Tyrese Rice. Ditto for Miami and Jack McClinton.

• Boy, that new three-point line is really bothering Kyle McAlarney, isn't it?

• It's only a matter of time before Oklahoma's freshman guard Willie Warren puts up 30 points in a game.

• Texas Tech coach Pat Knight plays more possessions of zone defense in a single half than his father did during his entire career. He even has a defense where he starts out playing zone and they shift to man-to-man after three or four passes. Tech isn't bad, by the way. Keep your eye on 6-8 junior forward Trevor Cook. He's a highly-skilled player well suited to a motion offense.