What to watch for in 2009: NBA

NFL | COLL. FOOTBALL | MLB | NBA | NHL | HS COLL. HOOP | GOLF | TENNIS | SOCCER | MMA LeBron James could win his first MVP -- and perhaps play for the NBA title -- in 2009. AP

There actually is nothing in the NBA to look forward to in 2009. Everything and everyone is on ice until the summer of 2010, when the league undergoes, simultaneously, a seismic shift, a sea change and a perfect storm driven by the lusted-after free agency of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming and another half-dozen or so All-Stars or game-changers. Until then, we are all Cleveland, holding our collective breaths, fearing the worst, hoping for the best, marking time.

In the meantime, we'll have to amuse ourselves with the comings and goings next summer of impending free agents Carlos Boozer, Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest, Mike Bibby, Hedo Turkoglu and Lamar Odom (Kobe Bryant also can opt out of his contract); with the continuing development of both new stars and promising franchises, from Devin Harris, Rodney Stuckey and Josh Smith to New Orleans', Portland's and Atlanta's collective coming of age; and with news stories that are both unforeseen (that's why they call it "news'') and impossible to ignore ...

Hey, come to think of it, there might be a 2009 in the NBA after all. Here are five predictions, projections, tips or outright guesses from our crystal ball:

1. The Feb. 19 trade deadline will generate major buzz. Several players beyond the 2009 free agents cited above -- including Wally Szczerbiak, Raef LaFrentz and Andre Miller -- have big expiring contracts that make them desirable trade targets. Surely there are a few franchises that aren't delusional enough to think they'll land one of the big kahunas in 2010, so they might start sprucing up their rosters in the coming weeks. Keep in mind that clubs such as Toronto and Cleveland want to upgrade now in hopes of hanging onto their marquee guys.

2. It's the economy, stupid. The NBA was sheltered from the worst of the Wall Street woes and general economic downturn because major broadcasting and sponsorship contracts were already locked in prior to the start of 2008-09 and most teams already had cashed checks from their season-ticket buyers. But the vast number of empty seats around the league serving as backdrop to all the outstanding basketball this season is cause for pause. We'll consider them unused at this point, but should people continue to feel the pinch, they could devolve into unsold for 2009-10. The salary cap hasn't dipped since 2002 -- when it went from $42.5 million to $40.271 million -- but that could happen soon if the tills aren't filled to their typical extravagant levels.

3. The guard, it is a changin'. Not the guards, per se, although guys like Harris, Stuckey, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, O.J. Mayo, Russell Westbrook and Brandon Roy have transfused energy into the league. I'm thinking more in general terms, as players such as Kidd, Shaquille O'Neal and Steve Nash start to wind down and perennial contenders like Detroit, Dallas and San Antonio have to recycle. We might not see a wholly new champion in 2009 -- Boston again is my favorite, in a Lakers-Celtics rematch -- but the Cavaliers and Rockets (if they can ever get healthy) will do their best to prove me wrong. I do believe we will see a first-time MVP (LeBron), with other new candidates rising up (Dwight Howard, for instance) to challenge on the ballot.

4. Springfield isn't just for Homer Simpson. Michael Jordan. David Robinson. John Stockton. Jerry Sloan. Those legends are among the new nominees for the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame in Springfield, Mass., joining holdovers such as Don Nelson and Chris Mullin being considered for enshrinement. It could be the most impressive group of inductees ever; in fact, making any one of the first four wait would seem artificial and reveal a flaw in the selection process. Some have suggested that Stockton join Karl Malone as a tandem in the Class of 2010, but it's better for the point guard to go in first -- that way, he can serve as Malone's official presenter, picking up one final assist.

5. Who's got next at Olympic Tower? This is just a hunch, but the speculation will begin in earnest in 2009 on the eventual successor to David Stern as NBA commissioner. It is fueled not only by common sense -- Stern is 66 years old and, unlike a lot of Americans his age, has enough in his 401k to actually retire -- but also by a preseason interview Stern did with Charlie Rose. When Rose mentioned longtime NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle's term in office -- January 1960 to November 1989 -- Stern waved him off, saying he never would challenge that. Yeah, well, on Feb. 1, 2009, Stern will celebrate 25 years as hoops czar. With the nation opting for younger leadership in its most recent election, it's conceivable that pro basketball -- at Stern's urging -- might head that way, too.