
Projecting the field (cont.)Posted: Monday February 11, 2008 11:35AM; Updated: Monday February 11, 2008 3:30PM As of now, Memphis (23-0), Duke (21-1) and Kansas (23-1) are all easy choices for No. 1 seeds. The fourth spot is very much up for grabs, with UCLA (21-3), Tennessee (21-2) and North Carolina (22-2) all sporting similar résumés. I did think about moving the Vols ahead of the Bruins following UCLA's loss at Washington on Sunday, but the Bruins scored a solid win at Washington State just three days earlier while Tennessee struggled to survive against last-place LSU on Saturday. Either way, the two would wind up meeting in Anaheim if they reached the Elite Eight. It's no wonder Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is such a staunch advocate of expanding the field beyond 65 -- it's becoming an annual tradition for his Orange to tempt fate. This is the third consecutive year in which Syracuse (16-8) entered the stretch run of the season squarely on the bubble. Two years ago, it took a Gerry McNamara-led run through the Big East tournament to lock up a berth, while last year the Orange's exclusion was the biggest surprise of Selection Sunday. As of now, they're again on the outside looking in due to a 1-6 record against RPI* top 50 teams. The Atlantic 10, which has four entrants in this week's field, could ultimately wind up with as many as five bids or as few as two. Xavier (20-4) appears to be the only lock. Dayton (16-6), which beat Pittsburgh and Louisville early on, looked that way at one point but has lost five-of-seven while playing without second-leading scorer Chris Wright. The committee takes injuries into account, however, and Wright is expected to return before the tourney. Meanwhile, Rhode Island (20-4) remains in good shape despite losing at UMass last week. The Minutemen (15-8) are in as of now, but sit just 4-5 in the conference. And while St. Joe's (15-7) is tied for second with Rhode Island following a last-second loss at Xavier on Sunday, the Hawks -- whose sole quality wins came in a sweep of UMass -- simply don't have the résumé yet. It's a bit puzzling how the ACC can be rated No. 1 in conference RPI while having so few legitimate tourney entrants. You've got Duke, UNC, Clemson (17-6), Maryland (16-8) -- and then nothing. While Miami (16-7) has a relatively high RPI (42), it sits just 3-6 in the conference with Clemson its only top 50 win. No. 47 NC State (15-8, 4-5) is similarly unimpressive, with its only quality win coming against the 'Canes. No one else is even on the radar. The depth of the Pac-10 is evident in the fact that I have 15-8 Arizona seeded as high as fourth and 14-9 Oregon in at all. The Wildcats, whose schedule to date is rated the toughest in the country, boast wins over top 40 foes Washington State, Texas A&M, USC and UNLV, while suffering just one "bad" loss (Virginia). Meanwhile, the Ducks have won on the road against Arizona, Kansas State and Cal and at home against Stanford. They do, however, have ugly losses to Nebraska and Oakland on their record. Finally, while Drake (22-1), winner of 21 straight games, is unquestionably one of the feel-good stories, it's hard to justify as high a seed as its record might indicate. The Bulldogs' best non-conference win came against 13-11 Iowa State, and while they're 13-0 in the Missouri Valley, that league may not produce a second tournament team. I've got them as a No. 6 seed right now, though a BracketBusters win at 21-2 Butler on Feb. 23 would certainly help their cause. *All RPI ratings come from CollegeRPI.com
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