No. 1 seeds separating themselves as selection nears

Call me crazy, but I don't think there's going to be all that much bubble suspense come Selection Sunday. The bracket is already fairly tight -- there were only six open spots this week once I placed all the "gimmes" -- and several of those will disappear when a few surprise teams inevitably win their conference tournaments. The last few teams that did get in this week -- UMass, West Virginia, Villanova -- have fairly weak credentials that won't stand up two weeks from now unless they make deep conference-tourney runs.

Below is a mock NCAA tournament bracket based on results through March 2. For purposes of this bracket, the current first-place team in each conference was awarded the projected automatic berth.

NOTE: NO ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO PREDICT FUTURE RESULTS. (Feel free to comment.)

EAST (Charlotte) SOUTH (Houston) (1) North Carolina (16) Lamar/Alabama St. (8) Baylor (9) Arizona (5) Vanderbilt (12) UAB (4) Purdue (13) Villanova (6) Drake (11) Texas A&M (3) Georgetown (14) Boise St. (7) Miami (10) South Alabama (2) Xavier (15) American (1) Memphis (16) UNC Asheville (8) Kansas St. (9) Kentucky (5) Michigan St. (12) Kent St. (4) Notre Dame (13) Davidson (6) Gonzaga (11) Southern Illinois (3) Stanford (14) Maryland-Baltimore County (7) Pittsburgh (10) UNLV (2) Duke (15) Cal-State Northridge MIDWEST (Detroit) WEST (Phoenix) (1) Tennessee (16) Portland St. (8) St. Mary's (9) Oklahoma (5) Washington St. (12) Maryland (4) Connecticut (13) Siena (6) Butler (11) West Virginia (3) Wisconsin (14) Belmont (7) Clemson (10) Arizona St. (2) Kansas (15) Robert Morris (1) UCLA (16) Morgan St. (8) BYU (9) Arkansas (5) Marquette (12) Virginia Commonwealth (4) Indiana (13) Oral Roberts (6) USC (11) Massachussetts (3) Louisville (14) Cornell (7) Mississippi St. (10) Illinois St. (2) Texas (15) Austin Peay Bracket updated through March 2nd.

Teams whose bubbles burst (in order of closest to being included): St. Joe's, Temple, Oregon, Florida, New Mexico.

The breakdown by conference:

Big East: 8 (G'town, Louisville, UConn, ND, Marquette, Pitt, W. Va, Villanova)
Pac-10: 6 (UCLA, Stanford, Washington St., USC, Arizona, ASU)
Big 12: 6 (Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, K-State, Texas A&M)
SEC: 5 (Tennessee, Vandy, Miss. St., Kentucky, Arkansas)
ACC: 5 (Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami, Maryland)
Big Ten: 4 (Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St.)
Missouri Valley: 3 (Drake, Illinois St., Southern Illinois)
A-10: 2 (Xavier, UMass)
C-USA: 2 (Memphis, UAB)
Mountain West: 2 (BYU, UNLV)
WCC: 2 (St. Mary's, Gonzaga)
20 one-bid conferences.

For more notes on the bracket, click below.

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