The Mailbag's prophetic powers, a reloaded Shootout and much more

Loyal readers knew to watch out for Oregon State at the beginning of the season. Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images Stewart Mandel's Mailbag Submit a question or an opinion to Stewart. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND Follow Stewart Mandel on Twitter

Last weekend's slew of top 10 upsets sent shockwaves through the college football world. Loyal Mailbag readers, on the other hand, presumably saw them coming a mile away.

Take, for example, Oregon State's "stunning" victory over top-ranked USC. Indulge me for a moment as we take a look back at SI.com's preseason Crystal Ball, in which myself and other writers were asked to name our "surprise team" for 2008.

And I quote ...

"Mandel: Oregon State. The Beavers are brimming with offensive weapons and could pull an early season upset of Penn State or USC."

To quote the esteemed Billy Madison: "I AM THE SMARTEST MAN ALIVE!"

How, some might ask, could Ole Miss, winless in the SEC just a year ago, walk into the Swamp and knock off fourth-ranked Florida? Let us revisit a July 2 Mailbag question about teams most likely to improve their win total:

"Over the past couple of seasons, the Rebels always seemed to be a play or two away from pulling off some big SEC wins, and between [new coach Houston] Nutt and Texas transfer QB Jevan Snead, I'd expect to see a few of those close finishes swing Ole Miss' way this year."

Blocked extra point. Close finish goes the Rebels' way. Boo-yah!

Finally, there's the matter of Alabama, which, in the course of a single offseason, appears to have transformed itself from a 7-6 Independence Bowl team to a bona fide national-title contender. This, from a July 29 Mailbag about potential "sleepers:"

"I've said it before, and I'll say it again: In Saban, I trust. Yes, the Tide lost to Louisiana-Monroe last year. Yes, seemingly half their roster has been either injured or arrested this offseason. Still, I can't shake the feeling that Nick Saban will do exactly what he did in Year 2 at LSU: Throw a handful of his most touted freshmen on the field, turn up the intensity on defense and churn out nine or 10 wins."

Touted freshmen on the field? See: Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, B.J. Scott, et. al. Intensified defense? See: Holding Georgia to 81 yards in the first half. At worst, I may have underestimated the win total.

So, you can see why Mailbag readers are unquestionably the most informed, most knowledgeable and most enlightened fans on the planet. Now, if only I'd heeded my own advice.

Last week, in the Stewart Mandel College Football Challenge, I managed to go ... 5-10.

Stewart, why is USC ranked ahead of Georgia in the AP after each team's loss last week? I know USC played a much closer game with Oregon State, while Alabama embarrassed the hell out of Georgia, but doesn't it stand to reason that Alabama is a much, much better team than Oregon State? I thought the Trojans would fall further. I'm not so much trying to be nit-picky and whiny than I am just trying understand the logic.
-- Clay, Birmingham, Ala.

Well, your first mistake is in trying to infer "logic" in a college football poll. No matter how much thought we as pollsters put into our weekly ballots, at the end of the day, none of us truly know which 4-1 team is better than the other. I try to at least be consistent in the way I treat the respective teams, but that's nearly impossible, as well. As you pointed out, both the Trojans and Bulldogs suffered "bad" losses, but they were "bad" for completely different reasons.

Yes, the Trojans lost to an inferior opponent, but it's not like they lost to Washington or Washington State. While the Beavers got off to a slow start, this is still a team that has won 19 games over the past two seasons and was playing at home. Mind you, USC still should have won the game.

Conversely, there would have been no shame in either team losing the Alabama-Georgia game, but the manner in which the Dawgs lost was extremely damning. I don't care if you're playing the New England Patriots -- no top-five team should ever fall behind 31-0 in its own stadium.

Personally, I treated the Trojans' loss slightly more harshly (dropping them eight spots) than the Dawgs' (seven spots), but I have no problem with the fact USC remained a spot ahead of Georgia. You're still evaluating both teams on their entire bodies of work, and the Trojans' obliteration of Ohio State was a stronger testimonial than Georgia's best win -- at Arizona State.

Stewart, is it time to reconsider your July assertion that the Red River Shootout has lost its luster? Are you ready to recant, given that it could very well be No. 1 vs. No. 5?
-- Rob Bartlett, Miami, Okla.

After what happened last week, I wouldn't take anything for granted. But yes, if Oklahoma (at Baylor) and Texas (at Colorado) both survive their conference road games this weekend, the teams' Oct. 11 showdown will be their most anticipated since 2004, when then-freshman Adrian Peterson led the second-ranked Sooners to a 12-0 win over Vince Young and the fifth-ranked Longhorns. The teams feature two quarterbacks, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford, who between them have completed nearly 80 percent of their passes for a combined 30 touchdowns and three interceptions.

But the crux of what I wrote then remains the same. The onus is still on Texas if this game is to live up to the hype. Even though the 'Horns have won two of the last three meetings, and even though they've destroyed their first four foes, they will likely enter the game as prohibitive underdogs. Much of that is due to the high level of respect for this year's Sooners, but there's also going to be an inherent lack of faith in Texas knowing that, for five-straight years (2000-04) when the rivalry was at its peak, Bob Stoops' teams owned Mack Brown's teams.

The other thing that remains true is that unlike in those days, when the OU-Texas game was the game of the year in the Big 12, the conference's SEC-like depth this year ensures many more big ones to follow. In fact if the 'Horns win, they'd likely move on to another duel of top-five teams the following week against Missouri -- which itself boats its own top-five QB (Chase Daniel).

How'd you like to be a defensive coordinator in the Big 12 this year?