Lovable Jaguars have too many flaws to beat Patriots

Maurice Jones-Drew was one of the few effective Jaguars offensive players against the Steelers in the wild-card round. AP

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FOXBORO, Mass. -- Let me say this: I love the Jacksonville Jaguars. Absolutely love them.

I love the way David Garrard (a virtual 29-year-old rookie) plays with a smile on his face and then dresses afterward like Walt (Clyde) Frazier, circa 1972, courtesy of his personal tailor. I love the way Maurice Jones-Drew, at 5-foot-7 (height and width), blows through people a foot taller than he is. ("He hides,'' says backfield partner Fred Taylor. "And when you finally find him, he's on top of you and it's too late.'')

I love the way Big John Henderson stands tall in the middle of the defensive line, 79 inches off the ground and 335 pounds stout, an immovable force when he's healthy (which he probably is not; more on that later). I love the way defensive end Paul Spicer speaks his mind, even when it means saying the Patriots should be placed on "probation'' for Spygate. I love the way the whole dressing room hums with fresh emotion, almost like it's a college team.

Oh yeah, I love the Jags. I just don't love them this week against the Patriots in the divisional playoff game Saturday night at Gillette Stadium.

Sometime in the last month it became popular in wiseguy circles to single out the Jaguars as the team that would ultimately terminate the Patriots' run at perfection. The theory was constructed on solid footings: At its best, Jacksonville has the best running game in the league (all the better to create long drives, keeping Tom Brady and Randy Moss on the bench and off the field and scoreboard); a quarterback who does not make mistakes (you can't throw passes to the Patriots or lose fumbles); and a defense that can stop the run and pressure Brady with just a front four (leaving seven to clog passing lanes).

It's a good blueprint, and maybe that's exactly how the game will play out. But I think that's unlikely, for two reasons. One, the Patriots have been waiting for January for two months. Sixteen-and-oh is nice, but postseason performance is why guys here get paid. Two, after covering Jacksonville's desperate 31-29 victory over Pittsburgh last Saturday night at Heinz Field, I don't think the Jaguars are quite the same team that won six of their last seven games that really counted (excluding the season-ending submission to Houston).

Last things first: In the seven-game regular season homestretch (again, excluding the last game), Jacksonville averaged 169 yards a game on the ground, a punishing number. Garrard threw for 12 touchdowns with just three interceptions.

Against Pittsburgh Garrard completed only nine passes in 21 attempts, with two horrible interceptions. Say what you like about passer rating numbers, Garrard's rating for the game was 41.9, less than half of his previous low. "I made some bad throws,'' he said after the game, "but I made the one play at the end.''

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