Denis of Cork takes on a crowded field of 19 other horses Saturday at the Kentucky Derby. AP Tim Layden's Mailbag Submit a question or comment for Tim Layden. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND Follow Tim Layden on Twitter Related Links LAYDEN: Should we believe Big Brown's hype? GALLERY: A look at the favorites, longshots GALLERY: How past favorites have fared TROTTER: Why the NFL Titans owner is watching

THE RACE -- The 134th Kentucky Derby, the most storied and important horse race in the world. It's also, by consensus, the most difficult to win.

THE STAKES -- Immediately, more than $1.4 million from a total purse north of $2 million. Long-term, immeasurable value as a stallion.

THE CHALLENGE -- Each of the 3-year-olds in the field will be running 1 ¼ miles for the first -- and in many cases, only -- time in their careers. They will be running in an overcrowded field of 20 horses, also for the first -- and only -- time in their careers. They will be running in front of 150,000 (or more) spectators. It is an experience unlike anything for which they can be prepared.

THE STORY LINE COMING IN -- Is the precocious, lightly raced Big Brown, with three victories in three lifetime starts, the freakish superstar that so many in the racing game are hoping to find? Can California-based Colonel John duplicate his terrific form from synthetic surfaces on dirt, a surface on which he has never raced? Can onetime Derby favorite Pyro recover from a disastrous finish on PolyTrack in the Blue Grass Stakes? Other than these three, no horse in the field is listed at better than 15-1 on the morning line. Can any of them outrun expectations and steal the Derby? And will it be Eight Belles, trying to become the fourth member of her gender to win the Derby and the first since 1988?

HOW THE RACE SHOULD UNFOLD -- It's almost impossible to predict every aspect of such a typically wild race. However, there appear to some foreseeable elements to Derby 134:

• Several fast horses are far outside the endless Derby starting gate, including Big Brown, who took the No. 20 spot when he could have taken 18 or 19. Inside him are quick runners Gayego, Recapturetheglory and Cowboy Cal, all of whom figure to run near the front. Bob Black Jack, who might be the fastest horse in the field, is not far away in 13. This all but guarantees at least a very solidly honest first half mile that will stress the fastest horses in the field and could set the race for a stalker or a closer. "I don't think it's going to be a ridiculously fast pace,'' says trainer Todd Pletcher, who saddles Cowboy Cal and Monba. "But it will be an honest pace to the first turn.''

• Colonel John has the No. 10 spot, which should enable Corey Nakatani to place him comfortably in the middle of the pack, saving ground without getting involved in rodeo.

• Pyro and the Michael Matz-trained Visionaire are also well-placed in the nine and eight holes. Both are closers and could potentially be well-placed.

• At some point past the middle of the race, the likes of Bob Black Jack, Cowboy Cal and probably several others will tire and begin to fade. Will Big Truck be one of the faders? Will Colonel John be well-placed enough to move up?

• Good luck is a significant factor in almost every horse race, but geometrically more so in the Kentucky Derby. A year ago Street Sense was taken to the lead on the rail by jockey Calvin Borel. It was a gusty move, aided by the fact that he was never stopped by a horse tiring in front of him. In 2005 the gifted Afleet Alex had to check up several times in the running of the race. It is impossible to know how these things will occur.

The Picks

1. Colonel John -- This California horse has shown the late speed that often decides the Derby. Worries remain about his ability to race on dirt, but not about his ability to get the 1 ¼ miles. He has trained beautifully in Louisville.

2. Denis of Cork -- Make it a 1-2 finish for Irish-born trainers, as Denis of Cork's trainer, David Carroll, and Colonel John's trainer, Eoin Harty, were both born into horse racing families in Ireland. Their fathers raced in steeplechase events against each other. Carroll wanted Denis of Cork to get another prep race before running poorly in the Illinois Derby, but he has run well here in training.

3. Tale of Ekati -- Some handicappers dismiss his Wood Memorial victory as simply picking up the pieces of a fast pace created by distance-challenged opponents. The guess here is that Tale of Ekati got better with that race and has gotten better since.

As for Big Brown, if he can win the Kentucky Derby having started just three times in his life, with chronically sore feet, starting from the outside post position, then he is truly a freakish racehorse. I think it's too much to ask. He will be asked to run too fast, too early, or he will encounter heavy traffic and bumping for the first time in his career. If he can overcome all of this, I'll be first in line for a ticket on his bandwagon and starting beating drums for the Triple Crown. But I don't think he can do it. Not in this race.