Preakness is Big Brown's to lose

Big Brown is a heavy favorite at 1-2 in Saturday's Preakness Stakes. Bill Frakes/SI Tim Layden's Mailbag Submit a question or comment for Tim Layden. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND Follow Tim Layden on Twitter Related Links LAYDEN: How to get horse racing back on track Big Brown heavy favorite to win Preakness SURVEY: What's your opinion on horse racing? GALLERY: Biggest Preakness favorites

BALTIMORE -- Big Brown arrived Wednesday evening at Pimlico Race Track for Saturday's Preakness. He was preceded onto the grounds of the old track by two of his business partners: In front of his horse trailer a brown UPS delivery truck of the variety that is probably driving up your street right now, and behind it a UPS cab for pulling an 18-wheeled truck. I didn't see the guy with the squeaky grease pencil in the UPS whiteboard commercials, but I'm sure he'll be here soon.

This can be regarded as the moment when Big Brown's pursuit of racing's Triple Crown turned silly. Not bad. Just silly. Like when the Funny Cide crew had more journalists than family on their yellow school bus in 2003. Hey, don't get me wrong. It's been 30 years since a horse won the Triple Crown and four years since Smarty Jones became the sixth horse in eight years to win the Derby and Preakness and then fall short in the Belmont Stakes.

So dish me up some hype. It's time for another run, and whether it ends in another disappointment (either Saturday in Baltimore or on June 7 in New York) or with the longest non-Triple Crown drought in history finally coming to end, it's always an enervating ride.

Saturday is Leg Two. Questions?

How is Big Brown doing?

He looks good to me, but I am neither vet nor trainer. I have lost money betting on some beautiful horses (which is why I don't bet anymore at all). Rick Dutrow, who is his trainer, says Big Brown came out of the May 3 Kentucky Derby better than any of his other races. Dutrow doesn't like to run horses back in two weeks. "I like running them back in three-four-five days or 30 or 40 days,'' Dutrow said Thursday at Pimlico. But the Triple Crown schedule demands it.

Dutrow and Big Brown stayed in Louisville for 10 days after the Derby and lousy weather limited him to two gallops and no real workouts, but Dutrow said all along he wasn't looking to train the horse between the Derby and Preakness, just keep him happy. As three-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert once told me: "The horse that wins the Derby should win the Preakness. He's proven himself to be the best horse and it's only two weeks later.''

Just to make sure Big Brown is sharp on Saturday, Dutrow will put a blowout into him on Saturday morning, essentially letting the horse sprint a short distance on the track to whet his appetite for the race to come later in the day. It's old-school training, but Dutrow is old school in many ways.

Is the Preakness field any good?

No, it's pretty weak. Just one horse is returning from the Derby, 17th-place finisher Gayego. He won the Arkansas Derby and was a semi-respectable 19-1 at post time in the Derby and didn't get a great trip. He also finished almost 50 lengths behind Big Brown. Let that number sink in for a minute. Fifty.

Kentucky Bear, whose connections entered him in the Kentucky Derby but were excluded on the basis of too little graded stakes earnings when more than 20 horses entered, is a respectable runner. But even opposing trainers admit that they are running for second money if Big Brown shows up.

This is not atypical of recent Preaknesses. Last year Curlin beat Street Sense in a brilliant duel. But Smarty Jones beat little in 2004 and Funny Cide beat less the year before that, when trainer Barclay Tagg told friends before the race, "He's going to crush these horses.''

The fact is that the Kentucky Derby attracts the best three-year-olds in training, but takes a lot out of horses that participate. That, combined with Big Brown's dominating performance, leaves little reason for people to take him on again in two weeks. Some will wait for the Belmont and others will rest even longer than that.

So Big Brown can't lose?

It's a horse race. Anything can happen. In 2000 Kent Desormeaux, who rides Big Brown, came to the Preakness with another sure thing, Fusaichi Pegasus. He lost to Red Bullet. "I couldn't lose, and then they opened the gate and I had no horse under me,'' says Desormeaux. ''It can happen.''

Big Brown is also due for a "bounce,'' handicapping parlance for a horse that finally produces a flat effort after one or more strong performances. However, he would have to bounce significantly to lose this race.

Why is Big Brown so good?

Number one, he's fast. Number two, he's fast. Number three, he's fast. But he also has the ability to use his speed in a race, and then relax, before using it again. "Very rare,'' says retired Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey. "A lot of horses, you ask them to run, and they just run until they're finished and that's it.''

In the Derby, Desormeaux got speed from Big Brown in the homestretch out of the gate to move toward the inside from the No. 20 post position, another little rush entering the far turn with three-eighths of a mile left, and then a decisive burst at the head of the lane. Three moves. Rare, indeed.

In the Preakness he will be running from the No. 7 post position, so he will have a little more traffic. But he is far more talented than those around him. He should be able to put himself anywhere he pleases and run comfortably from there.

So if Big Brown wins by daylight, he'll be a lock in the Belmont?

Not a chance. It's been 30 years since Affirmed closed out the three-Triple-Crown 1970s and streaks that long are not to be taken lightly. It will take a special horse. Maybe Big Brown is that horse, but he should be crowned only when he stands in the winner's circle at Belmont Park on June 7. Dutrow knows what lies ahead. He told me Thursday morning that he has done nothing special yet to prepare Big Brown to run 1½ miles and plans nothing special. But he also hopes to escape the Preakness with as little effort as possible.

Can he save the sport of racing by winning the Triple Crown?

Stop that. It's silly talk. Racing doesn't need saving. It needs institutional changes to protect horses and it needs more fans to respect the thrills and beauty of a live horse race, as opposed to a televised gambling event. Big Brown can't do much about the former, but he can affect the latter. He can make racing major league for the next three weeks and perhaps for the summer beyond. And that's all the game can ask.