Four races is an eternity for J.J.

Carl Edwards is in the best position to overtake Jimmie Johnson in the final four races of the Chase. AP Tim Tuttle's Mailbag Submit a comment or question for Tim. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

There's a certain deception when it's going smoothly and those wins and top-five finishes roll in one race after another. It's not effortless, but everything looks easy. And it looks like nothing can go wrong.

That's been Jimmie Johnson's story in the second half of the Sprint Cup season. Starting with his second at Chicagoland in the 19th race, Johnson has five wins and nine top-fives in the past 14 races. When it counted the most, Johnson and the No. 48 team have been masterful in the Chase with two wins and two other top-fives and a worst of ninth in six races.

Johnson's points lead jumped to triple digits with the masterpiece Sunday at Martinsville, a victory that was so convincing that almost every person not chasing him has said clinched his third straight championship.

Even Cale Yarborough, the only other driver to win three straight Cup titles, is convinced.

"The handwriting's on the wall. It's gonna happen," Yarborough said.

But an old racer like Yarborough should know better. Johnson's run to the next echelon up in NASCAR history is probable, but it is not assured. Four races remain, an eternity in a sport where so much can go wrong.

Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus can control much of it. Johnson is an incredibly bright driver, rarely putting himself into bad positions. Knaus, the rest of the crew and, indeed, the entire Hendricks operation will strive to make sure the No. 48 is as well prepared as possible.

But with 42 other cars on the track and outside suppliers, Johnson and Knaus don't have total self-determination. How many right-front tires have we seen go down this season? How many other parts are purchased from outside the organization?

Still, even with one DNF or mechanically-troubled run in the final four races, Johnson has such a large lead that either Greg Biffle, Jeff Burton or Carl Edwards would have to virtually run the table to overtake him.

Biffle, 149 points behind, has had a good season and a great Chase with two wins. He's been strong on the 1.5-mile tracks, too, that comprise three of the last four races. Biffle has won three times at Homestead-Miami, where the season ends. He can't be completely counted out, but he's not the threat to win all four that Roush Fenway Racing teammate Edwards is.

Burton? He's third, 152 behind, thanks to the win at Lowe's and his trademark top-10 consistency. But the 1.5-mile program at Richard Childress Racing doesn't compare to Biffle and Edwards at Roush Fenway, or Johnson's at Hendrick. Burton won't struggle in the final four, but he's not going to win two or three of them, either.

Edwards has the best chance of challenging, and maybe overtaking, Johnson. Phoenix is Edwards' weak link and he was fourth there in the spring. The problem for Edwards is Johnson's only win in the first half of the season was at Phoenix.

Edwards is capable of running the table, including Phoenix, where he was fourth in the spring and has three top-fives in eight starts. Martinsville had never been Edwards' best track. He didn't have a top-10 in seven starts before taking third Sunday, a finish that kept his championship aspirations alive.

The Chase moves to Atlanta this week. Edwards won his first and third races in Cup there and was leading in March with 52 laps to go when he had his only engine failure of the season.

Edwards won at Texas in April and won there in the Chase in 2005. He's capable of winning the next two and building momentum heading for Phoenix.

The deficit of 198 points Edwards faces is extreme. He lost half of them when he finished 33rd with a top-five car two weeks ago at Lowe's. Edwards' No. 99 has two ignition finishes and they both quit, forcing a long pit stop for repairs.

"We obviously had some misfortune last week that made this race important," Edwards said Sunday. "I felt like we could come here and if we ran like we did today, that it keeps our hopes alive and if it didn't, it would really put us in a hole, so it's a great day for us. [Johnson] would have any sort of trouble in the next two races and be right there back with us with all these guys bunched together.

"It looked like all of us were within 40-50 points second through fourth, maybe, so it could happen to anyone. We saw what happened with Kyle [Busch] and his team. Those guys seemed unbeatable, but they just had bad luck -- like what happened to us last week. We still don't know what happened -- just some sort of gremlin in the electrical system -- so, no, this isn't over until the last lap at Homestead."

Johnson has a remarkable Chase and he's built up a impressive lead. But it's not insurmountable with four to go.