Five observations to ponder as the offseason begins

Dale Earnhardt Jr. faded in his first season with Hendrick Motorsports. AP Tim Tuttle's Mailbag Submit a comment or question for Tim. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

Five observations and reflections as we head into a longer-than-usual (remember, no preseason testing at Daytona or Las Vegas) Sprint Cup offseason:

1. What happened to Jeff Gordon? This is the biggest mystery of 2008. He went from a great 2007 --six wins, 21 top-fives and 30 top-10s that would have won a championship in almost every other season -- to going winless for the first time since his rookie year of 1993. Even more telling is Gordon's overall drop in performance, to seven top-fives and 18 top-10s.

Gordon's No. 24 operates out of the same shop as Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson's No. 48. He and Johnson enjoy a close relationship, crew chiefs Steve Letarte (Gordon) and Chad Knaus (Johnson) share all information and have the same hardware available. It begs the question: Has Gordon lost it? The answer is no. He's only 37 and driver skills erode slowly, starting in their early 40s. There is no logical explanation. Bad luck played a part, like at the Daytona 500 when a suspension failure sent him to a 39th-place finish. But that accounts for only a few races and Gordon had 14 fewer top-fives this year than last. It's inexplicable.

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. faded into the sunset. In his first season with Hendrick Motorsports, the team that was supposed to make him a championship contender, Junior ended with a thump. You could feel the disappointment in Junior's voice as he thanked the team for its support this season after a wheel bearing failure knocked him out Sunday at Homestead-Miami. In the first half of the season, Earnhardt was Hendrick's top driver.

He was second in the points to Kyle Busch after 18 races with a victory, seven top-fives and 12 top-10s. Earnhardt had only three more top-fives and four top-10s in the last 18 races. Making the Chase made it a successful season, but he finished 12th. Earnhardt has been out of the top-10 in points in three of the past five seasons. He and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. know they have to do things differently to make a run at the championship in 2009.

3. NASCAR has a de facto franchise system. The top-35 points rule that guarantees starting positions needs to be changed to allow free market selling and acquisition of what is an earned and valuable property. When Ginn merged with DEI last year, NASCAR allowed Paul Menard's No. 15 to take over Ginn's No. 14 points that were in the top-35. Ginn also had its No. 13 in the top-35 and those points were discarded. There were rumors that the No. 78 Furniture Row team wanted to buy the No. 13 points and NASCAR wouldn't allow it. Recently-merged Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing has six spots in the top 35 and can use only four.

The two top-35s are good for the Daytona 500 and the four races that follow in 2009. NASCAR, which has no formal policy on transfer of points, should set a precedent and let the bidding begin. There are seven teams who would like to have those points, including Stewart-Haas, Richard Childress and Penske with deep pockets, and those points would bring in some badly needed revenue to Earnhardt-Ganassi.

4. Earnhardt-Ganassi's No. 41 is the only fully-funded car without a driver for 2009. Four drivers are hopeful of landing it: Regan Smith, A.J. Allmendinger, Scott Riggs and J.J. Yeley. Smith, 25, may appear to have the inside track after winning Rookie of the Year this season driving for DEI, but Allmendinger had better finishes with a pair of top-10s in his second season. Smith's bests were a pair of 14ths. He also didn't race in either of the road courses, replaced by the team with Ron Fellows, and that may work against him.

Allmendinger, who will be 27 at the start of next season, has a road racing background and made tremendous progress on ovals this season despite being released by Red Bull during the Chase. The veteran Riggs, 37, had a decent year with Haas Racing, delivering 30th-place owner points for Tony Stewart. He has four top-fives and 16 top-10s in a five-year Cup career of 167 starts. Yeley, 32, was released by Hall of Fame at midseason, but was 21st in the points in 2007 with Gibbs. The guess here is the No. 41 will go to Allmendinger, based upon the potential he showed this season.

5. Joey Logano is a prodigy. He arrived in the big leagues at age 18 with a most impressive resume, but Logano was out-performed this year in the Cup and Nationwide Series by Brad Keselowski. The 24-year-old Keselowski showed he was more ready to step into Cup than Logano by finishing 19th in his debut at Texas and 23rd at Homestead-Miami in a Rick Hendrick-owned entry. Logano was 32nd, 39th and 40th in his initial three Cup starts, split between Hall of Fame and Gibbs.

Keselowski has more experience in NASCAR's Truck and Nationwide Series and it showed. He was third in the Nationwide championship this year with two wins, 11 top-fives and 20 top-10s in 34 races. Logano was very impressive in the Nationwide with a win, five top-fives and 14 top-10s in 19 starts. Logano will be a star in Cup in two or three years, but Keselowski could challenge for the Chase next year if he had an opportunity with Hendrick. He'll drive a partial Cup schedule for Hendrick in 2009.

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