Early results tend to dictate success in Chase era

Sparks fly off the car of Casey Mears during the Daytona 500. The Hendrick Motorsports team member finished 35th. Robert Laberge/Getty Images for NASCAR

Most people can't leave Las Vegas without rolling the dice. But entering this weekend's UAW-Dodge 400 in Sin City, gambling is no longer an option for several Cup teams just two races into what could be a long season.

Getting off to a good start in NASCAR is more critical than ever these days. By the end of this season's fifth race, history tells us that three-quarters of the Chase field -- 76.1 percent, to be precise -- will already be set in stone. Last year, Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch were the only drivers outside the Top 12 in points to charge up the standings and make the playoffs. Everyone else was comfortably in control of their Chase destiny by mid-March.

And then there's the issue of the Top 35, where a similar theory holds true. If you're qualifying on speed when owner points come into effect at Martinsville, chances are you'll have to do it all season long. Last season, the teams "locked in" to spots on the grid held firm from March until the end of July, where it took the merger of Ginn Racing with DEI to open up a spot for any other program.

In light of these trends, you can see why it takes only two bad races for teams to start scrambling for answers. The old baseball rule says three strikes and you're out -- so here's an early look at five drivers already facing an 0-2 count heading to Las Vegas:

Casey Mears

It's hard to imagine Mears in a slump any worse than last year's, when he started off with finishes of 20th and 31st in Hendrick equipment. But here he is.

After wrecking twice in his debut with the No. 5 team -- one due to driver error, and the other because of a wet track -- Mears has finished 35th or worse in both Cup races to date. That's left him 42nd in points, already a daunting 158 behind the driver currently in the 12th and final Chase spot. And if that's not bad enough, his California wreck claimed heralded new teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr.

"I just hate that this early we are sitting here," said Mears after the Auto Club 500 debacle. "We are pretty bad in the points, so now we have to rally back."

At least the No. 5 team isn't getting down on itself. On the plane ride back from California, team members Mike Senyitko and Chris Heroy came up with the idea of rally caps -- turning everyone's hat inside out -- as a way of turning emotions right-side up for a program that is used to wins, not wrecks.

"[The caps] were a great way to break the tension that you could feel throughout the team," said crew chief Alan Gustafson. "We are in a tough situation, so it's easy to get mad and focus on the negative and what could have been. Pumping the team up like that reminded us of what we can and cannot control."

A little rally cap magic would help this weekend. Mears has never finished higher than seventh at Vegas, a sharp contrast from the No. 5 team's previous success here (Kyle Busch was second and third in two of his three starts). A Top 5 run is now a necessity for this team to get on track.

Denny Hamlin

He isn't in quite as precarious a spot as Mears. The winner of Toyota's first Cup "event" -- a Gatorade Duel 150 -- Hamlin came out of the box strong during Speedweeks. But an inspired Daytona start fizzled to a disappointing finish after pit road contact with Bobby Labonte. And after becoming the first victim of California's "weepers," Hamlin found himself watered down to 31st in points.

"There are 42 other drivers that would agree we should not be racing on that race track right now," said Hamlin afterwards, just as a second four-car wreck caused NASCAR to stop the race and clean up the mess. By then, the No. 11 team was sunk.

Now the key is for Hamlin to bury the hatchet and focus on the task at hand. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart have already pulled away; Busch is leading the points, and Stewart is third. However, it was Hamlin who was the class of JGR last year at Vegas. He was the only one within striking distance of Hendrick's Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon at the finish. A repeat performance is crucial to ensure Hamlin doesn't get lost in the shuffle.

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