In half a season, Dale Earnhardt Jr. already has led more laps for his new Hendrick team than he did in all of 2007 for DEI. Nick Laham/Getty Images for NASCAR Tom Bowles's Mailbag Submit a comment or question for Tom. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

Halfway through NASCAR's 26-race regular season, basic patterns develop which begin to tell the tale for how the rest of the season's storylines -- and the playoffs themselves -- may turn out, enough to make every racing analyst's mouth water. But sometimes, one race, stat, or driver simply isn't enough to tell the whole story.

If you narrow your focus, it's easy sometimes to jump to conclusions. But digging a little deeper, you'll realize these recent popular myths are nothing more than old wives' tales at this point in 2008:

MYTH: Hendrick Motorsports is struggling.

Certainly, Hendrick isn't lighting up the board the way it did last year, when nine of the first 13 races were won with its Chevrolets. To date, the four-car team has visited Victory Lane just once in '08, courtesy of Jimmie Johnson's fuel mileage gamble at Phoenix.

But just because the team hasn't won doesn't mean it's dropped out of contention. Newcomer Dale Earnhardt Jr. has sizzled, already leading more laps (527) in the No. 88 car then he did all of last season driving for DEI. Third in points, he's among three Hendrick cars situated among the top seven -- only Casey Mears is a distant 25th and out of Chase contention.

Teammates Jeff Gordon and Johnson were labeled as championship contenders to begin this season, and they've positioned themselves perfectly for the Chase this fall. Gordon in particular has come under fire from critics -- he's been hampered by three DNFs -- but his six top 5s are more than any other competitor not named Kyle Busch. Johnson's also had four top-5 finishes that have come sandwiched in between some experimental setups; instead of using the summer to test, crew chief Chad Knaus put some R&D work this spring to try out things he'd like to use for the playoffs. The move was ballsy, considering an extended slump could have knocked Johnson right out of Chase contention, but they've been good enough for long enough that making the top 12 shouldn't be a problem.

As the second half of the season winds up, expect this team to come out swinging as the playoffs loom ever closer.

MYTH: The Car of Tomorrow has led to more parity.

This is simply not true, despite NASCAR's insistence that there were 900 more green flag passes at Lowe's this year compared to last year.

But no matter how many drivers pass on the track, it's where they finish that matters -- and the same old teams and drivers are finishing up front. A few weeks ago, I did a statistical analysis that looked at top-10 finishes by car owner. This year, the "big four" teams -- Roush Fenway Racing, Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Richard Childress Racing -- have accounted for 55 of 65 top-10 finishes this season (85 percent). They also make up 11 of the 12 teams currently positioned to make the Chase -- Kasey Kahne in 12th is the lone exception, driving for Gillett Evernham Motorsports.

Compare that to this point in 2007 -- and the numbers aren't better, they're worse. Just 10 of the 12 Chase teams were from the Big Four through 13 races, and they'd collected 49 of 65 top-10 finishes (75 percent).

Of course, those stats don't include the litany of drivers complaining about the quality of the race car, as well as the handful of smaller teams (Morgan McClure, BAM Racing) who have suspended operations despite the CoT's goal of reducing cost. So, while its safety innovations may be top notch, its intended goal of evening out the playing field has led to the rich getting richer and the poor ... well, the poor getting poorer.

MYTH: 2008 will be the biggest NASCAR Silly Season in years.

Despite the news I reported last month that Tony Stewart will likely leave Gibbs for the '09 season, don't be so convinced things will amp up to the levels of last year, when Most Popular Driver Earnhardt Jr. and current points leader Kyle Busch were among those making a move. And that pales in comparison to the ultimate Silly Season of '05 -- in February the following year, no less than 20 drivers wound up in different rides.

It's hard to see that type of change happening. Besides Stewart's likely departure, the rest of the early Silly Season news has been about teams staying with their respective organizations. Carl Edwards signed a long-term extension with Roush Fenway Racing, and Greg Biffle and David Ragan are poised to do the same. Martin Truex Jr. has said recently that he's 95 percent certain an extension will be signed over at DEI, and the appeal of remaining top dog in a top-level organization is probably enough to keep him staying put. Even Elliott Sadler -- who's currently outside the top 25 in points -- just signed a long-term extension with Gillett Evernham Motorsports last week.

All those contracts leave a possible free agent crop consisting of Ryan Newman, David Reutimann, Mears, and ... Jamie McMurray? That's hardly an "A" level group considering the moves of past years. There's even no guarantee Mears is out of his respective ride -- he's signed through 2009, and everyone and everything has repeatedly stated he's safe at Hendrick for one more year. Reutimann could also choose to remain with Michael Waltrip Racing should sponsor UPS decide to return for '09.

Right now, there's just one new team established for next year, the No. 33 of Richard Childress Racing, and it's not as attractive an option as it looks -- just ask the Toyota cars last season, who all faced the daunting prospect of qualifying for the first five races on speed. Miss just one of those, and you're spending the rest of the season battling from behind, a nightmare which leaves some of racing's best drivers walking away at the bargaining table.