Betting on the Chase: Who will get in, who's waiting for '09

Once considered the odd man out at Childress, Kevin Harvick doesn't have to worry about making the Chase this year. Getty Images Tom Bowles's Mailbag Submit a comment or question for Tom. Name: Email: Hometown: Question: SEND

After 25 races and over 10,000 miles of circling 20 tracks across the country, NASCAR's regular season comes to an end Saturday night with a 400-lap contest in Richmond. Once the checkered flag falls, the sport's playoff field will be set, with the Top 12 qualifying drivers eligible to compete for the 10-race Chase for the Championship ending in Homestead, Florida this November.

Following an anti-climactic Richmond race last season -- in which Dale Earnhardt, Jr. tried in vain to make the Chase -- it looks like high drama's returned to this ¾-mile oval. While Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Jeff Burton and Greg Biffle have clinched their spots (Biffle just needs to start the race to shore up his bid), a pool of eight other drivers will battle it out for the six remaining bids. And with 13th place David Ragan and 14th place Kasey Kahne less than 50 points outside the Top 12, movement is possible for the first time since two-time champ Tony Stewart fell out of the playoffs here in 2006.

So, which drivers enter the weekend vulnerable, and which ones are ready to seal up their spot? We've got some odds:

Kevin Harvick (1/10,000 odds to make the Chase): Once thought to be the odd man out at Richard Childress Racing this summer, Harvick's turned up the heat on the strength of five consecutive Top 10 finishes. Boosted up to seventh in points, he's not so much worried about making the playoffs as he is contending for the title once it begins. With his chances of missing the Chase minute -- Harvick needs to just lead a lap or finish 42nd in a 43-car field -- the No. 29 can take some chances and focus on getting its first win of the season.

Tony Stewart (1/10): While Stewart's looked a little less sharp the last three weeks, he's also got a comfortable cushion heading into Richmond -- needing just a 35th place finish to guarantee his fourth Chase bid in five years. And when you consider this team's been through the hurt of a missed opportunity at Richmond once before -- a shocking 18th place finish in' 06 kept the former champ from defending his second title -- it'd be a major surprise to see Joe Gibbs Racing drop the ball that badly again. In fact, once the hubbub from '09 replacement Joey Logano subsides -- he's making his Cup debut for JGR at Richmond -- expect Stewart and his team to refocus in their final season together, becoming a darkhorse threat in the playoffs.

Matt Kenseth (3/1): The '03 champ has made a remarkable comeback, surging from 200 points outside the Top 12 in May to ninth in points at the end of August. The key to that consistency has been 11 Top 10 finishes in the last 15 races; only teammate Carl Edwards has more during that span. But for all that recent success, the playoffs aren't a given for Kenseth -- even though he needs to finish just 25th to lock in a spot. Hardly a short track ace, his No. 17 car got caught up in a devastating wreck at Richmond in May, finishing 38th -- the second time in his last five starts there that he's done that badly. Kenseth will be spending much of the night just trying to stay out of other people's messes -- and hoping that mess doesn't run into them.

Denny Hamlin (5/1): Sitting 11th in the standings, Hamlin needs to run 21st to secure a bid to the playoffs -- and on paper, that seems like a lock. After all, this is the same guy who led 381 of the first 382 laps at Richmond back in May, one of the most dominating performances in history at his hometown track. But that race ended with a flat tire and a disappointing drop to 24th, one of a string of weird failures that have handed Hamlin more than his share of bad luck. Entering 2008 with two career DNFs, the third-year driver's already matched that total this year, with a handful of other finishes tainted by mechanical problems. The question mark isn't whether he'll have the car capable of making the playoffs -- it's whether the parts and pieces can hold up for 400 laps.

Clint Bowyer (7/1): Sitting on the bubble spot in 12th, Bowyer is just 17 points from getting knocked out of the Chase. But keep in mind Bowyer drives for RCR, whose short track program is second to none. His lone win this season came at Richmond in May, and Bowyer's never finished lower than 12th there in five starts. Now that's how you put the pressure on. Last year's Cinderella story of the Chase, the third-year man is used to the playoff circus, so don't expect him to back down in the face of adversity. The only way he's missing this thing is if he gets caught up in someone else's mess.

Jeff Gordon (8/1): 10th in points and 102 ahead of 13th place David Ragan, Gordon would appear to be sitting pretty for a playoff spot. That's not the case. It's been a testy summer for the four-time champ, still winless and struggling with crew chief Steve LeTarte to find the right setup under the Car of Tomorrow. For a team that works so closely with title contender Jimmie Johnson and the No. 48, LeTarte's inability to fix things has been troubling, and Gordon's complained openly about the adjustments on his Chevrolets. It's a stretch to think crew jobs would be on the line if this team missed the playoffs, but the pressure's on. It's notable the only other time Gordon missed out -- in 2005 -- crew chief Robbie Loomis got the ax, with none other than LeTarte coming on to replace him.

And there's no question the playoffs are not a done deal for Gordon. He's had some recent history of struggling at Richmond, going through a four-race stretch where he finished 39th, 30th, 40th, and 31st. The No. 24 car was 9th here in May, but that was when it looked to be in much better shape. We've seen major stars miss the Chase on the last night before (see Stewart above), so Gordon will certainly be one to watch on Saturday.

David Ragan (12/1): The sophomore sensation has had an excellent season, with five Top 5 and nine Top 10 finishes putting him on the cusp of a playoff spot. Richmond is definitely the right track for Ragan to make a final push: he finished a career-best third in this race a year ago. But with the track record of Hamlin and Bowyer in front of him, Ragan likely will need to finish well and need bad luck from one of the "safer" bets (Gordon, Kenseth) to make his way in. Still, no matter what happens Ragan's in line to get a big reward: a multi-million sponsorship deal from UPS starting next season.

Kasey Kahne (40/1): If Kahne winds up missing the Chase, Casey Mears' spotter better enter the Witness Protection Program. It was a supposed mistake by Eddie Masencup that caused Mears to drift into the No. 55 of Michael Waltrip at Bristol, causing a multi-car wreck that made an innocent victim out of Kahne and dropped him right out of the Top 12. After failing to make up much ground at California last week, Kahne now sits 48 points out of 12th and needs nothing less than a Top 3 finish to really put the pressure on those above him. But despite getting his first career win at Richmond three years ago, Kahne will find duplicating that feat to be a tall order. In Kahne's last five starts at the oval, he's led a total of just one lap while finishing 34th, 3rd, 40th, 8th, and 10th. That's not the type of track record you want when looking to pull a rabbit out of your hat.

Who Makes It: Harvick, Stewart, Hamlin, Bowyer, Kenseth, Ragan.

Who Doesn't: Gordon, Kahne.