Five keys to winning the Chase

Kurt Busch finished the Chase with three wins, the fewest in the championship's history. David Wahlberg/SI

In its fifth year of competition, the Chase for the Championship is a baby compared to the playoff systems of other major sports. With such a limited time under its belt -- and several tweaks to the format already -- the whole concept is deemed a work in progress. However, we've already seen some basic patterns develop which give us an indication of what a driver needs to do to win this year. Here's what we know heading into this year's version of NASCAR's playoffs:

You're going to have to win a race -- a lot of them. Critics of the Chase format believe it opens the door to a winless driver taking the title. It's true that five of the 12 drivers in this year's field have been shut out of Victory Lane -- including former champs Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth -- but if they're going to come out on top, don't expect things to stay that way.

In the four years of the Chase's existence, no champion has finished the season with fewer than three wins (Kurt Busch in 2004). And only Stewart in '05 has made off with the trophy without winning once in the 10-race playoff. (But the five victories he already had that season went nicely with three runner-up finishes in the fall to seal the deal.)

Could Gordon, Stewart, or Kenseth conceivably buck this trend? It's mathematically possible, but all are starting 40 to 80 points behind the top three seeds -- and prohibitive favorites -- Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. With the way those guys are running, you're not going to make up that gap by running fifth every week. This year's Chase champion will have plenty of wins under his belt.

(P.S. In case you're wondering, only Busch, Edwards and Johnson have at least three wins so far this season. And you wonder why they're the favorites...)

If you can't win ... bonus points are key. Here's a little-known stat that might surprise you: Each of the four Chase winners led or tied for the lead in bonus points through the final 10-race stretch. Remember, NASCAR gives you five points for leading a lap and another five for leading the most -- and in a race with 11 of your closest rivals, every point counts. All four Chase champions have also led at least seven of the year's final 10 events.

Think this type of stuff doesn't matter? Just check out the series' first playoff race in 2004. Kurt Busch accumulated 55 bonus points for laps led, while challengers Johnson and Jeff Gordon had 30 and 35, respectively. If you take that advantage away, Johnson would have been sitting in Homestead with his first title trophy -- not Busch.

So, look for teams to figure out every which way possible to get themselves out front for a lap -- and keep track of those teams that do. Of course, the frenzy to get in front of the field will lead to some behavior not everyone will be happy with. Since four teams with three drivers apiece comprise this year's playoff field, don't be surprised if -- gulp! -- team orders come into play at some point. If a Chaser's running second and he finds his teammate leading the race, the old "pull over to let your 'friend' lead a lap" routine could come back in style. As one non-Chaser said to me this week, "That's part of your job."

The whole "mulligan" theory is a myth -- you can't always have one. It works like clockwork every year -- at the Chase's first race in New Hampshire on Sunday, someone will have a mechanical problem or a wreck that'll lead to a poor finish or a DNF. Some say that's nothing to worry about, that 10 races give you enough time to recover if you're saddled with a race that doesn't go your way.

But last year Jimmie Johnson proved that a driver can't afford to make a mistake. In breezing to his second title he put together an average finish of 5.1 -- ending the year with four wins and 10 straight Top 15 finishes. It was a flawless performance, nearly matched by his teammate Jeff Gordon -- who never finished any race lower than 11th.

The message from that season is clear: With the competition so close and an expanded playoff field, you just can't afford a hiccup. If someone goes on a similar run this season, a 35th-place finish at Loudon would make it just about impossible for anyone but the Chase's top three seeds to make a serious comeback. Anyone from fourth-place man Denny Hamlin on down -- all of whom start the Chase 70 points behind Kyle Busch -- is going to need to be flawless from beginning to end in order to have a chance.