How we got here -- a review of the Chase so far this season

Jeff Burton's staging a Chase comeback thanks to his consistent top 10 finishes in the Chase. Getty Images

Five races down, five to go in the fifth edition of NASCAR's Chase for the Championship. As the playoffs began, most believed this year's version would turn into a three-man race between Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards. Turns out that's exactly what happened; it's just not the three men most expected.

Here's a quick review of some of the ups and downs of the playoffs halfway through the title Chase:

Title Favorite: Jimmie Johnson. As my colleague Brant James eloquently described yesterday, Johnson's put himself in perfect position for the first three-peat since Cale Yarborough in 1976-78. The Chase strategy was different for the No. 48 this year, as crew chief Chad Knaus chose to throw away races in the spring to experiment with setups that would help in the fall. He finally let the No. 48 loose in mid-summer to see what Johnson could do, and his driver responded with wins at Indianapolis and the last two regular season races. He's continued that consistency in the Chase with five Top 10s in five races, including a win on a 1.5-mile track, which make up half the tracks in the postseason.

That has put Johnson in an unfamiliar spot, playing the favorite and clinging to a 69-point lead at the turn. That should mean the title's a lock, considering the way he has closed the deal in the playoffs; he's overcome deficits of 68 and 146 points the last two years.

But Johnson's surprise new role has been marked with the guise of "playing it safe," working the system but also leaving precious points on the table. After his main rivals crashed out in multiple Talladega incidents, Johnson rode around to a ninth-place finish and steered clear of any trouble. The team claims the car didn't have enough for a Top five run; but with the way this format rewards consistency, it's enough to make you scratch your head and wonder: If Burton or others stage an improbable comeback, people will look at that race and think Johnson opened the door just a little too much.

Most Consistent: Jeff Burton. Speaking of working the Chase format, the man who's made a living on Top 10 finishes this season staged a playoff comeback to jump into second place. Burton scored his second victory of the season at Lowe's to earn the title of Johnson's biggest threat, but the real method to his madness is keeping the car in one piece. Despite an average finish of 5.0, Burton's led just two of five playoff races; in fact, his 140 laps led all season would be the lowest total for a championship winner in NASCAR's modern era. That's left the 41-year-old a huge underdog, but he's taking a laid back approach to catching Johnson over the final five events.

"We've come into this things very relaxed, committed to having a good time, committed to having fun," he said after Lowe's. "We're going to go, have a good time, race hard. We're going to do the best we can, and it will be what it will be."

For Burton's attitude to pay off, he'll need to hit hard at the flat tracks, RCR's biggest strength. With three wins over his career at Martinsville and Phoenix, Burton needs to add to that total to have a chance.

Chase Cinderella: Greg Biffle. Greg who? That's what millions of NASCAR fans were saying as The Biff pulled a surprising sweep of the Chase's first two events after having gone winless through the regular season.

A former champ in both the Nationwide and Truck Series, Biffle's making a strong push to be the first to win the trophy in NASCAR's top three divisions. Similar to Chase Cinderella Clint Bowyer last year, he's sitting in third at the halfway point as the surprising leader of Roush Fenway Racing. After a ho-hum seventh place at Lowe's, Biffle now needs Johnson to make a mistake to push his way back in contention.

Best Team: Richard Childress Racing. Who would have thought the team with two wins through the regular season would be winning this award five races in? But while marquis teams from other organizations have stumbled, RCR has done a great job of keeping all three of its cars on track. Beside Burton, Bowyer and Kevin Harvick have ridden a wave of consistency to fifth and sixth place in the standings. In 15 combined starts this Chase, they have yet to record a finish outside the Top 20.

Worst Team: Joe Gibbs Racing. Compare that to the bad boys from JGR, who were aiming to give Toyota its first series title but instead got devoured by the dreaded sophomore slump. The second season for the Camry will be remembered for major improvements, but all the parts and engine failures they didn't have during the regular season have come to roost during the playoffs.

The three-car team has five finishes of 34th or worse, two DNFs, and no car higher than 7th in the standings. To add insult to injury, Denny Hamlin was nearly sidelined for the rest of the Chase at Talladega with a blown tire that led to one of the hardest wrecks of the season. And even when the team's come out on top, it's come packaged with a boatload of controversy: Tony Stewart's 'Dega win happened after NASCAR penalized rookie Regan Smith for making his pass below the yellow line.

Biggest Disappointment: Kyle Busch. With eight wins this season, Busch was expected to cruise to the title while challenging Richard Petty and Jeff Gordon for the modern-era record of 13. Instead, he'll be lucky to escape this Chase with one more victory and a Top five points finish after rounding the halfway point in ninth, 326 points out of the top spot.

Busch's fall from grace is unprecedented in NASCAR history. Starting the playoffs with a 40-point lead over Johnson, Busch went through an unprecedented 351-point swing in just three weeks with finishes of 34th, 43rd and 28th to fall to dead last. Mechanical failures had a lot to do with it, as the team dealt with a broken sway bar, a faulty engine, fuel pressure and more. But while Busch couldn't control what happened to his car, a bristling attitude failed to turn his team around until it was far too late.

Biggest Mistake: Carl Edwards' response to Kevin Harvick. After Busch fell by the wayside, most expected Cousin Carl to be the one giving Johnson a run for his money. But Edwards' title dreams went out the window with one ill-timed bump at Talladega. After sparking a multi-car wreck on Lap 173 that knocked out two of his teammates and half the playoff field, Edwards was graceful and apologetic ... until he heard some nasty criticism on television from RCR's Kevin Harvick.

That sparked a back-and-forth exchange that started with a letter Edwards left on Harvick's airplane, and ended with a rather public fight in the Nationwide Series garage. Already taking fault for the wreck, Edwards could have manned up and taken the jabs from other drivers knocked out of the crash. Instead, he let a few angry words get to his head, and the subsequent loss of focus has put him in poor position to challenge for a title that could have been his.

Worst Luck: Matt Kenseth. Winless for the first time since 2001, Kenseth was desperate to get his season on track in these playoffs. But pretty much anything that could go wrong has gone wrong for the No. 17. Four times in five events, he's been taken out by wrecks not of his making to drop to 11th in the standings. And in the one race he kept his nose clean, teammate and good friend Biffle charged from behind to take the lead and the win in Dover. Kenseth finished second, one of two Top five finishes this Chase that makes you wonder what could have been ... if cars hadn't use him like a pinball.

"Even when things go right they go wrong," he said after Lowe's. "It's just been one of those months."