Five Cuts: Cubs in trouble

Mike Fontenot hit .302 against righties this season with all nine of his home runs. Scott Boehm/Getty Images

1. Sometimes a series is not about the better team or the hotter team. It's about matchups. And the Dodgers present a headache of a matchup for the Cubs. "We're going to see right-handed pitching galore," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said. "We're going to need our left-hand hitters to do something."

Los Angeles is loaded with power right-handers in its rotation and bullpen, and Chicago is loaded with right-handers in its lineup. To understand the effect of that matchup all you needed to see was Alfonso Soriano waving at slider after slider breaking off the plate in Game 1. He can prepare himself for the same diet all week.

The Cubs may have led the league in runs, but they hit .238 during the season against the Dodgers. And if Piniella is thinking his left-handed hitters will pick up the slack, well, Kosuke Fukudome and Jim Edmonds aren't exactly the cavalry riding in to the rescue. Piniella's hottest left-handed stick is Mike Fontenot. Piniella may have to start Fontenot at second base in Game 2 and move Mark DeRosa from second base to right field, even if it means compromising his defense by putting Fukudome on the bench.

2. Speaking of matchups, the Rays ought to be happy the White Sox won the AL Central. Chicago is an unathletic team that is awful on turf: 3-16 this year. The disparity in outfield defense alone between these two teams is alarming. Overall, Tampa Bay was the most efficient defensive team in the league; the Sox were eighth. If the Rays can simply keep the ball in the park against the Sox's slow-pitch softball lineup, they should take care of business at home.

3. The Angels have a deserved reputation for creating runs with their baserunning acumen. But baserunning undermined them in their Game 1 ALDS loss. Vladimir Guerrero killed the Angels' eighth-inning, last-gasp rally. Guerrero was not being aggressive by trying to advance from first to third on an eighth-inning bloop hit beyond the reach of first baseman Kevin Youkilis; he was being careless. With the ball behind him, Guerrero must look at the third base coach for direction as he rounds second base. The coach becomes his eyes. Instead, Guerrero simply took a blind chance on his own and was thrown out easily. It was a fundamental mistake.

4. Memo to old-school fans: Nice to see CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd and John Danks, among others, pitching well on short rest in high-profile starts down the stretch. Sabathia makes his fourth straight start with three days of rest in NLDS Game 2 today in Philadelphia. Perhaps people will get comfortable with the idea that pitching on short rest - with the right pitcher at the right time -- isn't the automatic arm-killer and high risk that it's been made out to be. Managers used starters on three days rest this season more often than in any season in the past four years, though nothing close to the practice of 10 years ago. Here are the number of starts on three days rest in the past 10 years:

5. I am less and less inclined to believe you can bank on some guys "pitching well at home." The Yankees were burned last year by pitching Chien-Ming Wang in ALDS Game 4 in part because he was "good at home" and the Cubs were burned in NLDS Game 1 this year thinking Ryan Dempster deserved the start, and the chance to be their only starter to start twice, because he was "good at home." Why should pitching at home be a reliable "skill?" Sure, Dempster was 14-3 at home, but he made 20 starts at Wrigley Field and only 13 on the road, and hitters actually hit slightly worse against him on the road than at home. Maybe the home record, especially in any one given season, is skewed more by opponents, run support and just plain luck than by some bankable "skill" that somehow makes a guy better at home.

Funny thing is, when you ask players to explain a one-sided home/road split, they have no idea. "Chocolate chip pancakes," Dempster said. It's as good a "reason" as any. Just for fun, here are the career home and road win totals of some great pitchers: